PREVIEW & FAVOURITES | Vuelta a España 2025 stage 12 - Will anyone be able to put Vingegaard under pressure on tricky mountain stage?

We preview stage 12 of the Vuelta a Espana which will take place on the 4th of September. This will be a tricky mountain stage without a summit finish but with two difficult climbs on the way, where some men may want to test Jonas Vingegaard. The stage is set to start at 14:10CET and finish at 17:20CET.

Stage 12 could be for the breakaway but a potential GC fight could also be triggered on the climb to Collada de Brenes. It's an interesting day at the Vuelta, one of the few that has this type of profile where attacks from far are encouraged, and where the race can get very tactical. The start of the stage is mostly flat, and the profile overall very simple, as the riders tackle two similar climbs.

The ascent to Brenes is the main feature of the day and the one where most riders will have their eyes on. It's 7.7 kilometers long at around 8% and it's quite hard actually, with the first kilometer lowering the average. it's difficult enough to create proper differences and the summit comes with 22 kilometers to go.

This means that, with the downhill and flat finale, attacks that can make the difference on the climb can link up with riders from the breakaway and increase gaps in a way that is harder on the climbs between riders of similar ability. It should be an interesting day into Los Corrales de Buelna.

Some northwestern wind - which shouldn't affect the stage much - and small chances of rain. In this region the weather is quite unstable, so it's likely that we will have a few wet descents along the way that can increase the tension in the peloton.

GC Fight - This is on paper a GC day, but if no-one fully commits to attacking Jonas Vingegaard we will have a neutralized (figuratively) GC fight, as Visma are showing themselves very strong and Vingegaard is also the strongest climber in the race. They will certainly want someone in the breakaway as well, as will all GC teams most likely as the potential for tactical moves on this finale is very high if someone near the top has a bad day.

João Almeida has been very aggressive over the past few days, and I would suspect he may want to try something, because directly it will be hard to beat Vingegaard so he has to explore potential bad days. I wouldn't remove Tom Pidcock out of the equation either, he is on tremendous form, great confidence too after today but above all he can make the difference on the descents. Felix Gall, Giulio Ciccone, Matthew Riccitello, Egan Bernal will be there, but I would pay a lot of attention to BORA and more specifically Jai Hindley who seems to be at his very best form and may want to make a move here. However, take into consideration this stage comes on the eve of the Angliru, and some may want to take it as easy as possible.

The breakaway is certain to win this stage, there just is no realistic scenario in which anyone will want to control it in the peloton and then ride the finale so hard that they will catch the front group in time for the summit of the final ascent. It's a day for climbers, but the flat finale and relatively flat start do leave space for some surprises, and someone like the ever-aggressive Mads Pedersen or rouleurs such as Marco Frigo or Bruno Armirail could go on to take advantage of that terrain.

GC outsiders will certainly want to take advantage of it too, with Lorenzo Fortunato, Ben O'Connor for example being men willing to take the risk, well used to breakaways... Astana have also Harold Tejada, Harold Martín López and Wout Poels; UAE have Juan Ayuso, Marc Soler and Jay Vine...

Santiago Buitrago, Markel Beloki, Eddie Dunbar, Pablo Castrillo, Javier Romo and Léo Bisiaux are some of the other climbers to take into consideration into such a stage and taking into consideration the current context of the race.

*** Marc Soler, Santiago Buitrago
** Jonas Vingegaard, Ben O'Connor, Pablo Castrillo
* Tom Pidcock, João Almeida, Jai Hindley, Mads Pedersen, Marco Frigo, Lorenzo Fortunato, Harold Tejada, Jay Vine, Juan Ayuso, Javier Romo, Léo Bisiaux

Pick: Marc Soler

How: Solo breakaway win.