On the first of May, we have the first World Tour level one-day race following the spring classics. It is the day where Germany headlines the cycling world, as some of the best sprinters and classics riders take to the start of the Eschborn-Frankfurt classic. We preview the race ahead.
The race is 203 kilometers long and features a circuit with two main climbs. The Felberg features two ascents of around 11 kilometers at 5%, and the shorter but steeper Mammolshain is 2.3 kilometers at 8%. The climbs are not easy. It likely remains a classic for the sprinters, but the balance has definitely shifted more towards early attackers.
The opening 30 kilometers are flat, and lead to an 11 kilometer climb at 4.8%, however this early in the race it doesn’t usually play a role, except for fatigue build up. There will then be a combination of small climbs, however they won’t be easy. With 112 and 96 kilometers to go the riders go through Mammolshain, the toughest climb of the race, it's 2.3 kilometers at 8% but features ramps of up to 15% near it's end.
The riders go up Feldberg once again, another 8 kilometers at 5.9% where attacks can be dealt and consolidated, or if the pace is pushed sprinters can absolutely be dropped. From there on the same descent with several hilltops will follow that is perfect for attackers.
The sprinter teams will have some time to reorganize but they will face the decisive ascent one more time, finally summiting with 36.5 kilometers to go. After the short and fast descent the riders then find mostly pan-flat roads where a chase can thoroughly be organized and executed between those who remains.
Although the race can be somewhat selective, the dynamics usually tilt towards an organized chase between several teams who will not hesitate to work to bring in better chances for their leaders to fight for the win. If it comes down to the fast men they will have an urban sprint to tackle, with the finishing straight being 500 meters long.
The Weather
Some nice and warm temperatures, unlike what we've been finding throughout other races this spring. The wind will be present, consistently from the east. Luckily for the attackers, this means there will be a cross-tailwind in both the Felberg and Mammolshein.
Repetition of 2023
Last year the route was made harder, and the result was quite apparent. The race was nowhere near being decided in a peloton sprint - but a strong group of favourites moved away in the climbs and then comfortably raced for the victory amongst themselves once again. I expect the same to happen this time around, the route features several climbs and a hard pace in just one can completely smash the peloton as several teams will focus on their sprinters. Also because looking at the startlist we have tremendous puncheurs in great form such as Maxim van Gils and Thibau Nys... But also because UAE come stacked once again; featuring Diego Ulissi, Marc Hirschi, Jan Christen and also possibly Nils Politt who can certainly perform well on what is the closest World Tour race to home.
On their best day we can certainly see the likes of Wout Poels and Ben Healy make serious damage uphill... Defending champion Soren Kragh Andersen will be a threat although I argue that within Alpecin-Deceuninck it's Axel Laurance who is the biggest contender. Home team BORA - hansgrohe will have to make the difference on the climbs as well, having Max Schachmann - who was back to his peak form a month ago but not in the Ardennes, Sergio Higuita and Fredrik Wandahl as cards to play. As other outsider, we should consider Georg Zimmermann, Frank van den Broek, Gonzalo Serrano and Axel Zingle.
Will the sprinters win once again?
There's certainly an argument for it. The route certainly doesn't favour them anymore, and because of this less sprinters are also present. Which means less teams will form an alliance in the final hour of racing. Nevertheless, we do have strong sprinters present in the race who can survive quite well and be near the front after all the climbs. In fact plenty of classics specialists in the list, it's easier to name the more pure sprinters who will want a conservative race: Caleb Ewan, Alexander Kristoff, Sam Bennett and Paul Magnier. Possible ally teams in the final kilometers, alongside others.
'Others' include different types of riders. Some such as Movistar duo Alex Aranburu and Ivan García Cortina would likely focus on the offensive racing. Some such as Vincenzo Albanese, Riley Sheehan and Laurenz Rex would love a hard race, then resolved in a small group sprint. Inbetween all those we've got Mike Teunissen, Jasper De Buyst, Pierre Gautherat, Amaury Capiot, Henri Uhlig and Soren Waerenskjold.
Prediction Eschborn-Frankfurt 2024:
*** Thibau Nys, Marc Hirschi
** Maxim van Gils, Jan Christen, Axel Laurance
* Diego Ulissi, Ben Healy, Soren Kragh Andersen, Axel Zingle, Alexander Kristoff, Paul Magnier, Vincenzo Albanese, Ivan García Cortina, Pierre Gautherat, Laurenz Rex, Henri Uhlig, Soren Waerenskjold
Pick: Jan Christen
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