Paris-Nice 2026 stage 1 preview, profile, favourites & predictions - Biniam Girmay but Vingegaard and Ayuso must watch explosive finale

The 2026 edition of Paris-Nice will be taking place from the 8th to the 15th of March and is, as every year, one of the key pro cycling events of the spring. It features opportunities for the climbers, sprinters and classics specialists alike. We preview stage 1, which is estimated to start and finish at 13:10 and 16:50CET.

The race was first held in 1933 and won by Belgian Alfons Schepers. Due to the race's nature, as the name says from Paris to Nice in the Mediterraneen sea; it is often called the 'Race to the Sun', and on the road that is quite literally often the case. It is an event, with 8 days in duration, that has crowned some of the sport's very best over the generations. Jacques Anquetil, Tom Simpson, Eddy Merckx, Raymond Poulidor, Joop Zoetemelk, Seak Kelly (the record holder, winning every single edition from 1982 to 1988), Miguel Indurain, Laurent Jalabert...

The list goes on and on, and in recent years the race hasn't lost any of its meaning. Modern legends such as Alberto Contador, Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins, Geraint Thomas, Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar have all inserted their names onto the history books. In 2025, it was Matteo Jorgenson who took the overall win, defending it successfully with a performance that spanned great stages in all terrains.

The race begins, as usual, with a stage that is designed for the sprinters but with traps on the way and a slightly hilly circuit finish. The race begins in Achères and the opening day has 171 kilometers to be tackled, most of them flat.

The final half of the stage features a few small yet sharp climbs, where we may see attacks. There is going to be a loop around the town of Carrieres-sous-Poissy where the stage ends. The Côte de Chanteloup-les-Vignes is 1.1 kilometers long at over 8% and will summit with only 11 kilometers to go, providing an opportunity for attacks; as is the case with the following plateau kilometers.

An open finale, but one where it is still difficult to maintain the differences created. The final kilometers are flat and not technical, meaning it is not overly difficult to bring it back to a sprint, even if not with the entire peloton.

In a sprint finish we would first have to be clear if it would be a regular bunch sprint, which is possible; or a reduced bunch sprint if the climb does split the peloton. The likes of Milan Fretin, Casper van Uden, Pascal Ackermann and Phil Bauhaus will likely struggle if the race is quite hard... But overall the sprinter field consists of plenty riders that should be able to climb decently.

Biniam Girmay does go into the stage as a strong contender as he looks to be back to his best. We have plenty other sprinters who can climb or even puncheurs with a strong sprint. Axel Zingle, Laurence Pithie, Dorian Godon, Jasper Stuyven, Cees Bol, Max Kanter, Bryan Coquard, Matteo Trentin, Luke Lamperti, Marijn van den Berg, Anthony Turgis, Sandy Dujardin, Jensen Plowright and also Milan Menten.

Could we see attacks however? Certainly yes, the stage is designed for that. The climb isn't brutal but neither is the sprinter field world-class... Fight for positioning will happen, attacks will happen - likely in and right after the climb, and with chaos we could see some dangerous moves threatening a sprint. I wouldn't discount seeing Jonas Vingegaard and Juan Ayuso themselves trying to make a move, but they will always be covered and it's not easy to make gaps directly on such terrain. Lenny Martínez may also try out on the climb...

However that doesn't apply to others. Who may for sure get some freedom. Oscar Onley and Kévin Vauquelin (INEOS); Daniel Martínez and Aleksandr Vlasov (BORA); Brandon McNulty, Pavel Sivakov and Marc Soler (UAE) are the most dangerous out of them... I could see Movistar attacking likely, as the finale fits well both Iván Romeo and Pablo Castrillo. Mathias Vacek of Lidl-Trek is also extremely dangerous, and in a sprint would also have a shot.

*** Biniam Girmay, Cees Bol
** Dorian Godon, Matteo Trentin, Marijn van den Berg
* Milan Fretin, Luke Lamperti, Casper van Uden, Axel Zingle, Max Kanter, Bryan Coquard, Anthony Turgis, Sandy Dujardin, Milan Menten, Brandon McNulty, Marc Soler, Iván Romeo, Mathias Vacek

Pick: Biniam Girmay

How: Reduced bunch sprint.