“Neither will want to play second fiddle”: Vincenzo Nibali warns of UAE leadership clash between Juan Ayuso and João Almeida at La Vuelta

As the 80th edition of the Vuelta a Espana prepares to roll out from Turin this Saturday, few riders understand the unpredictable nature of Spain’s Grand Tour better than Vincenzo Nibali. The Shark of Messina — winner of the Vuelta in 2010 and one of just seven riders in history to have conquered all three Grand Tours — knows that the Vuelta is often as much a mental battle as it is a physical one.

And for UAE Team Emirates, the mental dynamics could be the biggest hurdle of all. “They’ll both want to lead. Neither of them will want to play second fiddle,” says Nibali, speaking of the team’s decision to field Juan Ayuso and João Almeida as joint leaders in conversation with Bici.Pro. “It’ll be up to the road to decide, of course, but once that happens, the one who’s slightly off the pace has to be mature enough to support the other. That’s not always easy, as we saw at the Giro this year.”

It’s a familiar conundrum: the duel-leadership gamble. In theory, it provides flexibility and firepower. In practice, it often leads to tactical hesitations, divided loyalties, and missed opportunities. And as Nibali points out, the Vuelta — with its less predictable race patterns and looser tactical control — is an environment where those complications can spiral quickly.

“What we saw on the Strade Bianche-style stage between Del Toro and Ayuso at the Giro was borderline, in my opinion,” he reflects. “But at the same time, we on the outside never really know what’s going on inside the team bus — whether it’s genuine friction or just natural competition.”

Ayuso, still just 22, is widely regarded as one of Spain’s next great hopes. His 3rd place overall in the 2022 Vuelta, as a teenager, made that clear. Almeida, meanwhile, is the tactically astute diesel engine — less flashy but quietly relentless, with a podium at the Giro and consistent top-ten finishes across Grand Tours.

“They’re both strong, no doubt,” Nibali says. “But this kind of race, with all its chaos and unpredictability, takes patience. Ayuso is still young. He has to stay calm. A Grand Tour isn’t won in one day — it’s a three-week test of resilience.”

With Jonas Vingegaard returning from a dominant Tour de France campaign and a Team Visma | Lease a Bike team dedicated entirely to his bid for the triple crown, UAE’s margin for error is minimal. Nibali believes that how the Emirati squad manages this internal balance could well define their Vuelta.

The Vuelta, unlike its more structured cousins in France and Italy, has long been a theatre of chaos. It’s where redemption arcs begin, contracts are earned or saved, and unknowns sometimes become legends. It’s also the Grand Tour that least rewards over-planning. “It’s much harder to interpret than the Giro or Tour,” Nibali says. “There’s less control in the peloton. The race is nervous. There are ambushes, big breakaways, and unexpected turnarounds.”

Part of that, he explains, is structural: some riders arrive on form, others come undercooked or over-raced. Some are chasing GC dreams, others are hunting stages to prove a point or secure a contract. “The fatigue of the full season weighs heavily on everyone,” Nibali notes. “And that shows.”

Another wildcard lies in the terrain itself. Spanish climbs are deceptive — not as long as the Alpine monsters of the Giro or Tour, but often more brutal in gradient. And nowhere is that more evident than on the Bola del Mundo, the stage 20 summit finish and potentially decisive battlefield.

“I remember it well from 2010,” Nibali says, recalling his Vuelta-winning ride. “The first part is manageable, wide road. But then it turns right, and the final three or four kilometres are on narrow concrete ramps, with gradients up to 20%. It’s maybe not as brutal as the Angliru — but it’s close.”

The Bola isn’t the only trap. The Vuelta features a relentless barrage of short, sharp climbs, often late in stages, which make it a race of repeated accelerations — less about wattage consistency and more about explosiveness. “It suits riders like Ciccone, for example,” Nibali notes. “He’s shown he’s in great form with that win in San Sebastián. This type of race is perfect for him.”

Italian hopes this year rest largely on three names: Ciccone, Damiano Caruso, and Filippo Ganna. Caruso, ever the reliable engine, has trained in the high mountains in the lead-up to the race. “He’s in good shape,” says Nibali. “Whether he’ll aim for GC or stages, we’ll see — but he can definitely deliver.”

Ganna, meanwhile, returns after a painful Tour de France exit on day one. “He’ll be motivated,” Nibali says. “He’s got something to prove.”

And then there’s Antonio Tiberi, a rider whose 2024 Giro showed promise, but whose form since has been uneven. “I just hope he hasn’t fallen into a negative loop,” Nibali admits. “He’s got the character. He’s been training with Caruso, which is good. But now he has to show where he really stands. I think he still has a few steps to take before he fully matures.”

Of course, all roads ultimately lead to Jonas Vingegaard. Fresh from another strong, if ultimately unsuccessful Tour, he now sets his sights on adding the Vuelta to his palmarès. “He’s the favourite, no doubt,” says Nibali. “The team is built around him. They’ve got the strength to try and control the race — but this is the Vuelta. Anything can happen.”

And that, perhaps more than anything, is what makes this race so compelling. While the Tour is often formulaic and the Giro sentimental, the Vuelta remains gloriously unpredictable, a place where old champions can write their final chapters and young stars can emerge from the shadows. “Look at Pogacar,” Nibali reminds us. “He first revealed himself to the world at the Vuelta.”

Whether 2025 will be remembered as the coronation of Vingegaard, the internal combustion of UAE, or the emergence of a new star — well, as ever, the road to Madrid will decide.