Lance Armstrong is back with his podcast The Move to analyze the first week of the
Vuelta a Espana 2024. Along with his regular contributors, George Hincapie and
Johan Bruyneel, they assessed what happened in the first days of competition in the Spanish Grand Tour, highlighting the brutal victory of American Brandon McNulty in the opening time trial at an inhuman pace of 47 km/h.
Of the first days of the Vuelta, the heat was notable and Armstrong pointed out that leader
Ben O'Connor grew up in an arid area in his native Australia and that this may help him ride more comfortably in the remainder of the Vuelta: "He's the story of this Vuelta a España considering he's leaving the team at the end of the season," begins Armstorng. "Ben O'Connor is from Perth, in Australia, I've never been there, but it's hot. We talked about the heat, if he can handle it, if he can handle the heat. He's grown up in a very hot area. That doesn't guarantee that someone can take the heat, but he's been exposed to it."
Johan Bruyneel spoke about the heat of the Spanish Tour and possible solutions to stop this from happening in the future, such as the Vuelta being held entirely in September and not more than half of it in August as in recent years:
"The heat has been incredible, they started in Portugal and then there have been 5 stages in the south, all this combined with the fact that we are at the end of August causes temperatures ranging between 37 and 40 degrees," asseses Bruyneel. "If you combine the end of August with cities like Seville, Cordoba or Granada is something that is not good".
O'Connor has a commanding GC lead after 10 stages
What about 1m 44sec ?
Just making a point, he can't get to the last two mountain finishes and the last tt with less than 1m45s. He'll need all of that time.
What is the science behind your exactly 1 min 45 sec number?
If he gets through next tuesday in red he will still need about two minutes if he wants to win this Vuelta, don't forget, there is a TT still to come and two more mountain top finishes in the third week.
Not much science behind the number, just common sense and understanding how he has performed in the past.
That's if he gets through the next five mountain stages in the jersey, it's a big ask.