“In the second Grand Tour, Pogacar has never been there” - Alberto Contador questions key Jonas Vingegaard theory before Tour de France showdown

Jonas Vingegaard’s Giro d’Italia dominance has strengthened the sense that he will arrive at the Tour de France as Tadej Pogacar’s most serious challenger, but Alberto Contador is not ready to accept one of Team Visma | Lease a Bike’s most important arguments without a tougher test.

Vingegaard left Italy with the maglia rosa, five stage wins and a place alongside cycling’s Triple Crown greats after adding the Giro to his Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana victories. His superiority in the mountains was clear, with Felix Gall, Jai Hindley and Thymen Arensman unable to seriously threaten him across the decisive climbs.

Contador, a former Giro, Tour and Vuelta winner himself and now a Eurosport analyst, believes the Tour question is still more complicated than the final Giro margin suggests. The Spaniard pointed to Visma’s belief that Vingegaard can improve from his first Grand Tour of a season to his second, while warning that the theory has not yet been tested against Pogacar in the same circumstances.

“That theory they have in the team, which surprised me because of how emphatically the director spoke about it, is that in the second Grand Tour he always goes better,” Contador said on Eurosport.

Vingegaard’s 2026 season has so far delivered almost everything Visma could have wanted. Before the Giro, he had already won Paris-Nice and the Volta a Catalunya. In Italy, he added another level of three-week control, repeatedly distancing rivals in the mountains and closing the race with a lead of more than five minutes.

The Tour, though, brings Pogacar back into the equation. The UAE Team Emirates - XRG leader did not race the Giro, and remains the reigning Tour de France champion. Contador’s doubt is not about whether Vingegaard looked exceptional in Italy, but about how much that tells us before July.

“In the second Grand Tour, so far, Pogacar has never been there,” Contador said. “Now we’ll see when he coincides with Pogacar, when he coincides with Seixas, and we’ll see how he develops.”

That is the part of the debate Visma cannot answer until the Tour begins. Vingegaard has shown that he can dominate a Grand Tour without Pogacar present. He has also shown, across his career, that he can beat Pogacar at the Tour. What has not yet happened is this exact version of the plan: win the Giro, absorb the effort, then face Pogacar in July with the claim that the second Grand Tour brings an even higher level.

Contador also placed Vingegaard’s Giro wins in context. Gall, Hindley and Arensman all produced strong races, but none arrived in Italy with the same standing as Pogacar in a Tour de France duel. Vingegaard was the overwhelming favourite before the Giro began, and the race unfolded increasingly around his superiority.

The next challenge is not only the quality of opposition. It is the accumulated load of the Giro itself. Contador noted that three weeks of racing create a different kind of fatigue to a controlled altitude camp, even for a rider who appeared to finish the race with something still in reserve.

That makes Visma’s recovery window one of the central questions before Barcelona. Vingegaard will take confidence, rhythm and a completed Grand Tour set from Italy. He will also carry the effects of a Giro in which he raced hard enough to win five stages and control the high mountains.

Contador’s final warning was broader than Vingegaard alone. “The watts, what you are capable of doing now, next year that is not enough to win,” he said. “You have to do a little bit more, and that comes through small details.”

The Giro changed Vingegaard’s season and his place in history. It did not settle the Tour de France argument. Pogacar will return as the rider who has defined the past two Tours, while Vingegaard arrives with the confidence of a near-perfect spring and a Giro victory that few riders in the modern era would even attempt before July.

Contador’s view does not dismiss Vingegaard’s form. It simply adds the missing opponent back into the conversation. Visma’s theory may yet prove correct, but the Tour will be the first time this version of Vingegaard’s second-Grand-Tour plan meets Pogacar directly.

For now, Vingegaard has the Giro, the momentum and the historic milestone. Contador’s question is whether that same momentum survives when the rider waiting across the road is Pogacar.