“His biggest danger looks to be crashes” - Danish expert says Jonas Vingegaard’s Giro d’Italia rivals may not be his main threat

Jonas Vingegaard has reached Italy with exactly the kind of opening Giro d’Italia weekend Team Visma | Lease a Bike would have wanted on paper. No time loss, no major scare, no wasted energy in the wrong places, and enough sharpness on Stage 2 to remind the rest of the peloton who the clear favourite remains.

Yet after a brutal start in Bulgaria, where crashes have already taken Adam Yates, Jay Vine, Marc Soler, Santiago Buitrago, Matteo Moschetti and Andrea Vendrame out of the race, the biggest danger to Vingegaard’s Maglia Rosa bid may not be another climber at all.

Speaking for Eurosport.dk, former Danish national coach Anders Lund argued that Vingegaard’s tactical choices across the opening three stages have to be judged through that lens. “Jonas is in a really good position,” Lund said. “The most important mission with the start in Bulgaria was really that he had to get through without losing time and get safely to Italy. That succeeded, but beyond that, he has also shown great commitment and a desire to race.”

That desire was most obvious on Stage 2, when Vingegaard attacked on the Lyaskovets Monastery climb and briefly went clear with Giulio Pellizzari and Lennert Van Eetvelt. Although the move was caught before the finish, it still changed the tone of the Giro’s opening weekend. Visma had spent Stage 1 riding deep in the peloton to avoid the sprint chaos. A day later, Vingegaard was suddenly using his legs to remove himself from danger.

Visma’s Stage 1 tactics divided opinion, with the team riding near the rear of the peloton while sprint squads fought for position ahead of the finale in Burgas. The plan was later vindicated when a major crash ripped through the bunch in the final kilometre, leaving Vingegaard and his teammates out of trouble.

Lund believes the approach made sense. “He has made some sensible choices,” he said. “Especially on Stage 1, which has divided opinion, but I thought it was very smart. In terms of the Giro’s general classification, his biggest danger looks to be crashes, and he removes that risk by sitting smartly in the peloton.”

That assessment feels even sharper after Stage 2. UAE Team Emirates - XRG saw their Giro ambitions heavily damaged by the horror crash before the final climb, with Yates, Vine and Soler all later forced out. Buitrago also abandoned after the same incident, while Derek Gee-West lost time and several other riders were left battered.

For Vingegaard, the first weekend has become a reminder that control in this Giro may mean more than simply riding faster uphill. On Stage 2, Visma’s solution was different. Instead of hiding from the risk, they tried to ride clear of it. “Visma made it sound as though it was a defensive way of racing, and that it was protection,” Lund explained. “The safest thing Vingegaard could do was ride away from the rest of the peloton and ride alone on the final descent in as small a group as possible.”

That attack did not bring the stage win, but it did send a clear message. Vingegaard had the legs to put pressure on the race almost immediately, even on terrain that was not expected to decide the Giro outright. “That was the safest thing, you could say,” Lund added. “But it also shows that on a relatively manageable climb, he can put his rivals under pressure. Vingegaard simply looks like the best. He looks really, really good.”

If there was one rider who emerged from Bulgaria with his status enhanced alongside Vingegaard, it was Giulio Pellizzari. The Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe rider was one of only two men able to follow the Dane’s acceleration on Stage 2, with Van Eetvelt the other.

Lund pointed to Pellizzari as the clearest early rival to Vingegaard, at least from what the race has shown so far. “Pellizzari could follow Vingegaard in the finale on Stage 2,” he said. “He also looks really good and has come through the first part just as well as Vingegaard. So that is how it looks after the first three stages.”

The real test is still to come. Friday’s summit finish on Blockhaus should give the first proper reading of the climbing hierarchy, with the Giro’s longest stage ending on one of the toughest ascents of the race.

For now, though, Vingegaard has left Bulgaria where he needed to be. He is safely in the GC picture, already active, already watched by everyone, and still untouched by the chaos that has reshaped the race around him.