Greg van Avermaet is a former winner of Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and in his first spring away from the peloton, he will keep a close eye on the favourites' form. In a recent interview, he admits that
Mathieu van der Poel and
Wout van Aert are currently racing at virtually the same level.
“Roubaix or De Ronde is still 50-50 for me. Van Aert's results have been equally good in both races so far. Why would Van Aert no longer have the explosiveness needed to win De Ronde? I don't necessarily rate Van der Poel higher than Van Aert," van Avermaet told Het Nieuwsblad. “Last year's Cyclocross World Championships were a turning point in that regard. Van der Poel has since shown a greater killer instinct."
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in prizes! Last year van der Poel took that confidence and he then went on to win Milano-Sanremo, Paris-Roubaix and the World Championships. In every single one, van Aert was in the podium, but the Team Visma | Lease a Bike missed out on a season-marking victory. “He has never had that luck," 'Golden Greg' says. The Belgian is fully focusing on the monuments this season, the Giro d'Italia and the Olympic Games where he has the chances to succeed and flip a less good chapter in his career.
For the spring, he will change schedules, opting to train at altitude instead of racing Paris-Nice or Tirreno-Adriatico. Looking back in his career, van Avermaet believes he should've done the same. "I was one of those last fools who still rode everything," he admits. Van der Poel in the meantime is preparing for the road specifically after conquering a sixth cyclocross world title. His first race of the season is not yet confirmed, but Strade Bianche or one of the World Tour stage-races are likely to be chosen.
Both will face off and be the main favourites for both Flanders and Roubaix later this spring. In the first Tadej Pogacar - last year's winner - will not be present. Van Aert last year was on his path to directly fight for victory, but he suffered a puncture during a late key moment of the race as he attacked, which was the moment Mathieu van der Poel won the race.
But who cares about Van Avermaet?
MVDP has more monuments, no getting around it. But:
1. Wout's record at TDF, the biggest race in the world, is much better than MVDPs.
2. Wout is *this close* to a very different record in the monuments. Lost by a couple of inches in the 2020 Ronde, got Covid before the 2022 Ronde and missed it while in top form, had a flat in the last cobbled section at Roubaix last year (and 3 mechanicals the year before).
3. Also worth nothing that Wout has had near misses at multiple WC's and the 2020 Olympics, even beating Pogacar in such races.
Luck is part of it, no use complaining. The point is just that it's closer than the record appears at a glance. Wout is one of the best classics riders of all time, even if for the moment he only has one monument.
All right but that’s only part of the story. As Greg said, MVDP has some new killer instinct but what Greg didn’t mention and is probably even more important, he discovered the benefits of spending the winter training in Spain and it seems to have left him on a level even above anything he ever had. The way he dominated the Cyclocross season without even seeming to need to try means he’s probably not going to have fatigue at any point of the road season.
Wout has obvious TdF advantages being amazing in mountains for his weight, MVDP didn’t really have any concrete TdF desires, plays more of a supporting/marketing role at the moment but I’m pretty sure he’ll be motivated to do more one day.
Greg claims to have been one of the last fools to ride everything but I think he forgets something very important, he only rode on the road, and before the seasons really got extended to basically year-round, so he’s never had to try ride at the highest level year-round like MVDP, WVA and a few others over the last years. These guys have disproven that you can’t be competitive all year, they’ve changed the game for others who were convinced you had to wind it down for half the year to last the other half.
All bias and specific profiles aside, based on the current situation, MVDP would win 6-8 and WVA 2-4 races out of 10.
Liège-Bastogne-Liège is going to be amazing, don’t think he’ll win but even if he makes 3rd he’ll be motivated to attack more hilly stuff and who knows, maybe try something more interesting in a Grand Tour.