“Do not make that mistake again” - Chris Horner warns Jonas Vingegaard against tactical trap that could hand Tadej Pogacar Tour de France history

Chris Horner has warned Jonas Vingegaard and Team Visma | Lease a Bike that beating Tadej Pogacar at the 2026 Tour de France will require more than just another huge climbing performance. With Pogacar chasing a fifth yellow jersey, Horner says Visma must avoid burning their own race in ways that make life easier for UAE Team Emirates – XRG.

Speaking on his Beyond the Coverage YouTube channel, the 2013 Vuelta a Espana winner argued that Vingegaard cannot control the level Pogacar brings to Barcelona. What he can control is when Visma work, who they keep in the race, and how often Pogacar is forced to spend energy himself.

“The biggest thing that Jonas Vingegaard has to do is get Tadej Pogacar on the front,” said Horner. “When you go back at Joux Plane, Tadej Pogacar was the one attacking. Jonas Vingegaard was able to bring him back.”

Horner’s warning comes with the Tour set to begin on July 4, and with Vingegaard trying to add the yellow jersey to the Giro d’Italia title he won earlier this season. Pogacar remains the rider to beat, but Horner sees danger if Visma try to solve the race too early.

Horner’s clearest criticism was aimed at stage 1 of last year’s Tour, where he felt Visma split the race in a way that removed useful pressure from Pogacar. Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic were among the riders distanced, but Horner argued that dropping those names was not automatically good news for Vingegaard.

“You do not want to drop these guys,” Horner said. “You want these guys to be attacking and putting pressure on Tadej Pogacar so that UAE Team Emirates have to ride.”

That point matters even more if Pogacar enters the Tour as the stronger rider. Horner believes Vingegaard needs as many credible GC threats as possible close enough to force UAE into decisions, covers and chases. “You want to keep the general classification as close as you possibly can,” he said. “Because at this moment, what we know before the 2026 Tour starts, Tadej Pogacar is the better of the two riders.”

Horner also warned Visma against damaging their own depth before the mountain stages. In his view, riders such as Matteo Jorgenson, Sepp Kuss and Davide Piganzoli can only help Vingegaard later if they are not sacrificed too early in the race.

“Do not make that mistake again here at the 2026 Tour de France,” Horner said. “If you have the type of form that you had last year in the 2025 Tour de France, you cannot afford to make any mistakes.”

Horner also returned to the 2023 Tour de France and the Col de Joux Plane stage, where Pogacar attacked, Vingegaard followed, and the Dane still took the summit bonus seconds. The American used that day as an example of what Vingegaard needs more often: Pogacar making the move, Pogacar taking the wind, Pogacar carrying the risk. “If UAE get on the front and they’re going 100%, let them do it,” Horner said. “Do not do it if another team wants to go 100%.”

For Horner, that applies especially in the mountains. If UAE are already driving the pace for Pogacar, Visma do not need to prove they can ride harder. They need to save riders, keep options alive and wait for moments where Pogacar’s instinct to attack becomes something Vingegaard can use.

“Have you ever seen a race that Tadej Pogacar is not lighting up at some point in time?” Horner asked. “Two years ago, stage nine, gravel stage, he’s attacking with 90 kilometres to go. That’s what you want.”

That is the counterintuitive part of Horner’s advice. He does not want Vingegaard to race passively, but he does want him to stop giving Pogacar clean, direct battles on the Slovenian’s terms. If Pogacar attacks first and Vingegaard follows, the defending champion spends energy while Visma keep their leader in position.

“If Pogacar can be first, Jonas, you can definitely be second,” Horner said. “The only thing you’re going to do is increase your odds of winning the Tour if Pogacar is in the wind much longer than you are.”

Vingegaard starts the Tour with Giro-winning form behind him and the chance to complete one of cycling’s hardest doubles. Horner’s warning is that Visma cannot afford to chase that history by clearing Pogacar’s road for him.