CyclingUpToDate Podcast: "If he does that at the Tour, it's game over for everyone else" - Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard, who wins the 2026 Tour de France?

The 2026 Tour de France will once again see Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard go head to head for the yellow jersey, but this time around with some added wildcards in the likes of Paul Seixas and Remco Evenepoel. How can they affect the expected fight for victory, and how do UAE Team Emirates - XRG and Team Visma | Lease a Bike compare with each other starting this year's edition. On episode 2 of the CyclingUpToDate podcast, Rúben Silva and Kieran Wood have discussed this.

"I think we might have the best Jonas that we've ever seen, and I think Pogacar is just as good as he's been before," Silva said as an early statement. "Vingegaard, specifically, he changed coaches this year as well. He talked a lot about, already in January, that he wanted a new challenge. He wanted the Giro, then the Tour".

And so far, the Dane has succeeded in his early plan. Although a crash and illness disrupted his start to the season, Vingegaard has managed to win the overall classification of both Paris-Nice and the Volta a Catalunya in the spring. After preparing for the Giro d'Italia, he once again dominated the fight for the overall classification, taking his first ever pink jersey.

Vingegaard hasn't raced since, his level is only known to his team. "He's also looking really lean. I mean, they all are going to, but you look at Vingegaard and you can really tell that he's ready for this. His body is ready for this. His head is ready for this". Above all the psychological battle may be more even this year, with the Dane having already won a Grand Tour, within his limits, ahead of the Tour.

"He doesn't have the pressure that he's had in previous years, because he already won the Giro, and if he finishes second at the Tour, well, that's where he already got the other years. It's already better, and I think Visma are in a good place. I think the pressure is all going to be on UAE to defend the title".

I think Visma are in a good place. I think the pressure is all going to be on UAE to defend the title, it's not on Visma, and the fact that Seixas and maybe a top form Evenepoel are going to be here, they're going to put pressure on Pogacar. This is not Vingegaard's battle to fight, because for him, finishing second or third or fourth, it doesn't matter. He's here to win, really".

Wood agreed that there could definitely be a mindset change for a Vingegaard that won't be dependent on his Tour result as much as he's been in all previous years. "Because he's already got a Giro win now, when he comes to the Tour, is he going to be more of a Contador-style, where second is nothing? He doesn't care if he finishes off the podium. He's going all in for the win. He's going to be more aggressive against Pogacar".

"He was meant to go to altitude after Suisse. Then plan B was going to the Slovenian National Championships with [Urska] Zigart, but she had a fall also at the Tour de Suisse, and so he ended up staying at home in Monaco in the weeks in between," Silva added. "And I think that is not on paper the ideal preparation, but I feel like 95% of the work has been done already, and maybe having spent this time at home would have been good for his head and for his freshness".

Pogacar on the other hand had a spring packed with classics, with also some packed weight in the mix. His climbing performances were notably superior at the Tour de Suisse when comparing to the Tour de Romandie however, a sign of his specific work towards the mountains and also the necessary weight loss.

"And when it comes to his legs, he hasn't put in the incredible climbing performances that he did in previous years, except now in the Tour de Suisse. But on the final mountain stage, his numbers were crazy, I think. An estimation was 7.2W/Kg at 24 minutes. And yeah, if he does that at the Tour, it's game over for everyone else, really," he argued.

However can it be also be argued that Pogacar's less than ideal final weeks towards the Tour, and the stress that came with the injuries of his partner, might hamper him? "But Pogacar, he's not a rookie to this. UAE is not a rookie to this, so they all know how to manage the situation perfectly".

Both teams have most of their main men supporting Pogacar and Vingegaard, in what is expected to be another battle for the ages. What can make the difference between the two? "I think Isaac del Toro is capable of covering so many bases and he is a mini Pogacar, if he's in great form," Silva pointed out. "They maybe don't have as many climbers as they could, I don't think. But that's because of del Toro, exactly".

I think that if everything blows to bits they will be like 'it's good, we have this guy here, del Toro is willing to sacrifice himself, that is okay, he will be there with Pogacar'. And what they really need is a team to cover holes. If there's echelons, if there's splits, if there's crashes, we need to [Nils] Politt, we need [Tim] Wellens], we need [Florian] Vermeersch... All of these riders to really carry him at the front of the Tour, the whole race".

But on the other hand, the Dutch team does not slack when it comes to its ability in every terrain. "[Matteo] Jorgenson is super versatile, Sepp Kuss on his best day is still one of the very best in the world, And Piganzoli is a diamond in the rough. His Giro was incredible, and I think he was not planned to come to the Tour at all. The team was like 'no, we want you, we want you here, we see how good you did at the Giro, we want you here'. If I could have one of them as a collective, with the domestiques supporting me, I would pick Visma, honestly".

"I think it'll go a lot, because in the big mountains as well, you know they're mostly going to last quite a long time as well," Wood argued. But will the race be decided between mountain trains or instead through different tactics.

"They know this, I'm not saying anything new: Last year, they (Visma, ed.) attacked all race long, in the winds, in the hills, breakaways, constantly. They have to do that again," Silva stated. "Because if Pogacar has a bad day, they need to take advantage of it fully, and it may only happen once, if it happens at all".

"So, the same way that Simon Yates won that Giro last year, with Van Aert in the breakaway, it's one golden day like that which they need really, and I think it's possible. It's hard, because its Pogacar at the end of the day, but it's possible".

"And I would think as well, an advantage of Visma this year, is that it isn't just Vingegaard versus Pogacar," Wood argued. "You have the outside elements of Seixas, Evenepoel and Lipowitz. So that if they do go on the attack, and Pogacar has to react, Vingegaard can then capitalize on top of that".

It is a strong trump card that can be used by Visma, who have not won the Grand Boucle since 2023, and have had to settle for second over the past two editions against a Pogacar that was unbeatable.

But that being taken into account will depend on their rivals having their best level and remaining consistent. "Evenepoel mainly, because Evenepoel is the guy that's going to attack on the flat, he's the guy that's going to attack on the little hills, he's the unpredictable guy. I remember the Tour of Flanders, where Pogacar said that he was more worried about Evenepel coming back than van der Poel. Because if Evenepoel goes alone in front on a flat road, he's not getting caught, so Pogacar has to go after him right away, there is that pressure".

And that would not be the first occasion. In 2024, all three had their best level, and before the race reached its main obstacles, Evenepoel did not hide in the wind. "In the gravel stage that Evenepoel was on the attack all the time, and Vingegaard was like 'this is not my day, I'm not going to push'. It was when we had that infamous 'fuck you' from Pogacar to Vingegaard, they were not having a good time".

"Evenepoel, you know, he was on his Evenepoel days. He was attacking, he was pushing, he was yelling, and if we see Evenepoel attack at some point in his Tour and actually put the other guys under pressure, I think Vingegaard has every right to I'm not going to say deny working with Pogacar - but it's like, 'no, this is up to you, because you've won the last Tours, you're the man to beat'."

"And it's just the status quo that Vingegaard is a little below Pogacar, and so they have the right to just, you know, 'it's up to you, not up to me, I already won the Giro, I don't need this, you know, you want to win the Tour, you work for it'."