ANALYSIS | UAE Team Emirates - XRG vs Team Visma | Lease a Bike: Who has the better team in 2025?

The 2025 cycling season is shaping up to be one of the most anticipated in recent years, with two of the sport's superpowers, UAE Team Emirates - XRG and Team Visma | Lease a Bike, preparing for another chapter in their intense rivalry. Both teams have bolstered their rosters with key signings and strategic adjustments following contrasting fortunes in 2024, setting the stage for an exciting head-to-head battle. At the forefront of this rivalry are Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard, two of the greatest riders of their generation, supported by star-studded teams ready to clash across the biggest races of the year.

The 2024 season was a dream year for UAE Team Emirates, led by an unstoppable Pogacar. The Slovenian delivered an unprecedented hat-trick by winning the Tour de France, the Giro d’Italia, and the World Championships, cementing his place among the sport’s legends. His success was the centrepiece of a collective effort by UAE, who showed incredible depth and tactical precision throughout the season. Riders such as Joao Almeida, Adam Yates, Juan Ayuso, Marc Soler, and Tim Wellens played critical roles in the team’s dominance in 2024. Pogacar's unparalleled versatility and endurance allowed him to excel in both stage races and single-day events, ensuring UAE’s superiority across multiple fronts.

In stark contrast, Visma | Lease a Bike struggled to replicate the dominance of their outstanding 2023 campaign, when they won all 3 grand tours. The team faced numerous challenges, including injuries to key riders like Wout van Aert, who was sidelined for significant portions of the season. Without van Aert’s all-round brilliance, Visma lacked firepower in critical moments. Despite these setbacks, Jonas Vingegaard demonstrated resilience, finishing second to Pogacar at the Tour de France and maintaining a high level of performance throughout the year despite his own horrific crash back in the spring.

Sepp Kuss, the 2023 Vuelta a España winner, had a disappointing campaign last year where he was not his usual self, while younger talents like Olav Kooij and Matteo Jorgenson showed glimpses of their potential. However, Visma’s inconsistency and lack of depth in certain areas exposed vulnerabilities that they have sought to address heading into 2025.

With the new season on the horizon, both teams have taken steps to strengthen their squads and address shortcomings. UAE Team Emirates have retained their core group of elite riders while making key additions to enhance their roster further. Pogacar remains the undisputed leader, and his ambition for 2025 is as audacious as ever. His confirmed schedule includes the UAE Tour, Strade Bianche, Milano - Sanremo, and another assault on the cobbled classics where he will try and win the Tour of Flanders again.

Supporting him will be an all-star cast that includes Almeida, Ayuso, Yates, Soler, and Tim Wellens, all proven performers in Grand Tours and Classics alike. There’s also the likes of Pavel Sivakov and Niels Politt who add depth and versatility, with Sivakov providing climbing strength and Politt bringing expertise on the cobbles. UAE’s blend of experience and youth positions them as one of the most well-rounded teams in the peloton.

Visma | Lease a Bike, too, have made significant moves to regain their edge. Vingegaard remains the centrepiece of their ambitions, and his 2025 schedule includes a Tour-Vuelta double alongside the World Championships, where he will likely face Pogacar in thrilling duels. Simon Yates, a major new signing, brings Grand Tour experience and climbing prowess to bolster Visma’s stage race lineup. Wout van Aert, arguably the most versatile rider in the world, is set for an ambitious campaign targeting the Giro d’Italia, the Tour de France, and marquee Classics like the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, where he hopes to win his first monument since 2020. Christophe Laporte, Matteo Jorgenson, and Olav Kooij ensure Visma remains a formidable force in one-day races, while young prospects such as Cian Uijtdebroeks and the returning Victor Campenaerts offer tactical flexibility. The team’s ability to balance priorities across different race types makes them a potent threat to number 1 ranked team UAE Team Emirates in 2025.

The rivalry between these two teams has been the story of the past five seasons, as they have taken the mantle of cycling’s best team from INEOS and traded number 1 and number 2 positions. UAE are by no means just the ‘Pogacar’ team, but he is undoubtedly the most important component of their dynasty. The Slovenian’s ability to dominate both stage races and Classics gives his team an edge in targeting a broader range of races, in comparison to Vingegaard who only targets the grand tours. Meanwhile, Visma’s focus on depth and multi-faceted riders ensures they remain competitive across various disciplines. The inclusion of Simon Yates, who will complement Vingegaard in mountainous terrains, and van Aert’s versatility in cobbled and Grand Tour stages, highlights their intent to challenge UAE on all fronts.

The narrative of their rivalry is further enriched by the events of the past two seasons. In 2023, Vingegaard and Visma overwhelmed Pogacar at the Tour de France, using their depth and strength in numbers to isolate and defeat the Slovenian. However, the roles reversed in 2024, with Pogacar and UAE isolating Vingegaard and dictating terms in decisive moments. These swings in dominance illustrate the fine margins that separate these two teams and add intrigue to their 2025 encounters. The prospect of both squads being at full strength this season is tantalising for fans, who are eager to witness a level playing field where tactics, fitness, and individual brilliance determine the outcome. But can Visma turn the tables on UAE?

Another compelling subplot of this rivalry is the comparison of super-domestiques, particularly the brothers: Adam Yates for UAE and Simon Yates for Visma. Adam Yates has proven his reliability in Grand Tours, delivering podium finishes at the Tour de France and excelling as a climber and team player. Simon Yates, now with Visma, brings similar qualities but also has the capability to lead when needed. Their performances will be crucial in determining the outcomes of key races, and their head-to-head clashes add another layer of excitement to the rivalry.

The Classics campaign is another arena where these teams will battle for supremacy. One of UAE’s key men last year was Niels Polit, who’s strength and experience complement Pogacar’s increasing focus on the spring classics, where he aims to add victories in Flanders and Roubaix to his palmarès. Conversely, Visma’s expertise in one-day races, anchored by van Aert and Laporte, ensures they remain favourites in the one day races where Pogacar is not present. Van Aert’s versatility and proven track record in the Classics give Visma an edge, but Pogacar has proven time and time again that he is more than a stage racer, and he is an all time great classics rider too.

As the season approaches, the question of which team has the better roster for 2025 remains open to debate. UAE’s unparalleled depth and tactical flexibility, coupled with Pogacar’s brilliance, make them a formidable force and it will be hard to dislodge them from the number 1 spot. However, Visma’s renewed focus, strengthened by key signings and the versatility of their riders, positions them as strong contenders to turn the tables once again. The ultimate test will come on the roads of Europe’s biggest races, where strategy, form, and speed will determine the outcome.

Cycling fans are in for a treat as these two giants of the sport prepare to clash across the calendar. From the cobbled Classics to the high mountains of the Grand Tours, the rivalry between UAE Team Emirates XRG and Team Visma | Lease a Bike promises to define the 2025 season. Whether it’s Pogacar versus Vingegaard in a Tour de France summit finish, van Aert battling on the cobbles, or the Yates brothers influencing Grand Tour narratives, the season is set to deliver unforgettable moments. With both teams at full strength, the battle for supremacy in 2025 will be one for the ages.