ANALYSIS: Halfway Through La Vuelta 2024

We’ve just passed the halfway stage of the 2024 Vuelta a España, and the race has already delivered thrilling moments, unexpected performances, and its fair share of surprises. After 11 stages, the peloton finds itself in a fascinating position, with a surprising rider in the red jersey and some of the pre-race favourites struggling to make an impact. Few could have predicted that Ben O’Connor, the Australian climbing specialist, would be leading the race by over three minutes from Primož Roglič, the three-time Vuelta winner and pre-race favourite.

As we head into the decisive second half of the race, here are the standout performers and those who have fallen short of expectations so far.

Perhaps the most surprising story of the 2024 Vuelta a España so far is Ben O’Connor’s rise to the top of the general classification (GC). The Australian rider has always been considered a strong contender for stage wins and a solid GC rider, but his performance in the first half of this year’s Vuelta has exceeded all expectations. After winning Stage 6 in a solo breakaway, O’Connor took the red jersey and has managed to hold onto it, even as some of the big GC contenders have tried to chip away at his lead.

O’Connor’s victory on Stage 6 was a masterclass in climbing, showcasing his endurance and tactical awareness. It was a long time coming for the 28-year-old, who has faced numerous setbacks in his career despite showing flashes of brilliance. His fourth-place finish at the 2021 Tour de France signalled his potential, but it was marred by moments of inconsistency, notably a crash in the early stages. O’Connor's victory on Stage 9 of that Tour was a bold display of his talent, but he narrowly missed the podium, a story that repeated itself in the 2024 Giro d'Italia, where he finished fourth once again.

This Vuelta, however, feels different. O’Connor looks more composed, and with a lead of over three minutes, he’s not just in contention for stage wins but for the overall victory. While his initial gap has shrunk slightly, the Australian has shown that he can handle the pressure, and his rivals are still struggling to close the gap. O’Connor’s biggest test will come in the high mountains that remain, but if he can continue his current form, this Vuelta may mark a career-defining moment. Not only has he proven to be consistent across three-week races, but he’s also capitalized on questionable tactics by Roglič’s Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe team, leaving him in a prime position to win his first Grand Tour.

Another rider who has impressed at this year’s Vuelta is Belgium’s Wout van Aert. After a challenging season marred by injury setbacks that forced him to miss the Giro d’Italia and impacted his Tour de France, van Aert seems to have found his form again. He kicked off the Vuelta with two second-place finishes and took the red jersey in the opening stages before picking up a hat trick of stage wins in the opening half of La Vuelta.

Van Aert’s versatility is on full display once again, with three stage victories to his name already, the latest coming in a dominant performance on Stage 10. His ability to excel in different terrains—from sprint finishes to medium mountain stages—has made him a standout figure in the race. Though van Aert isn’t competing for the GC, his contributions to his team and his stage victories underline his return to top form. With the World Championships looming in Zurich next month, van Aert will be amongst the favourites for the rainbow jersey. His performances in this Vuelta are a clear indication that the Belgian star is back to his best.

Spain’s Enric Mas has been one of the most consistent riders in this year’s Vuelta, and he currently sits third in the general classification. Mas, who has finished on the podium in previous editions of the Vuelta, has been one of the strongest climbers in the race. His tenacity and tactical acumen have helped him survive some of the most challenging stages, including a close call on Stage 9 where he nearly crashed during a dangerous descent.

Despite this scare, Mas has remained Roglič’s closest competitor in the race to close the gap on O’Connor. While he has yet to take a stage win, his resilience on the climbs and his ability to stay with the elite riders in the GC battle make him a serious contender in the final stages of the race. As the Vuelta heads into the high mountains, Mas will be aiming to close the gap to O’Connor and challenge for his first overall victory in his home Grand Tour.

One of the biggest surprises—and disappointments—of this year’s Vuelta has been the performance of Sepp Kuss. The American rider, who won the 2023 Vuelta in dramatic fashion as part of Jumbo-Visma’s podium sweep, has struggled to find his rhythm in this edition. Kuss currently sits in 15th place, over eight minutes behind O’Connor, a far cry from his display last year.

Kuss’s performance has been puzzling, as he was expected to be one of the main GC contenders after his victory in 2023. However, he has been unable to match the pace of the top riders and has fallen out of contention for the overall title. Despite his disappointing position in the GC, Kuss has been instrumental in supporting Wout van Aert, particularly on Stage 7, where he played a key role in setting up van Aert for one of his stage wins. While Kuss may have given up on defending his title, he will hope to regain some time in the mountain stages and possibly fight for a top-10 finish.

Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe came into the Vuelta with a clear favourite for the overall victory in Primož Roglič. However, the team’s tactics have come under scrutiny, especially in their handling of Stage 6, where Ben O’Connor was allowed to escape up the road and build a significant time gap. While O’Connor wasn’t considered a pre-race favourite, his strength as a climber and his experience as a GC contender meant he was always going to be a threat if given too much freedom.

Roglič, who is still the strongest rider in the race, now finds himself playing catch-up. The Slovenian rider has shown flashes of his usual dominance, but the gap to O’Connor may prove difficult to close in the remaining stages. With question marks over the team’s strategy, Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe will need to be much sharper in the coming stages if they want to secure Roglič’s fourth Vuelta title.

Yes, you read that correctly. And no Tadej Pogacar is not at this year’s Vuelta. And that’s exactly why I’m disappointed. Not everyone will agree with this pick, and some will call it greedy, and perhaps it is, but there’s no guarantee the Slovenian will get the chance to win all three grand tours in the same season ever again. He’s already done the Giro-Tour double in 2024 and should he have been anywhere close to his form at those two races, he would have most likely crushed the current Vuelta field.

It’s all ifs, buts, and maybes, but would it not have been historic to see Pogacar don the red jersey, and become the first person to win all three grand tours in the same season?