ANALYSIS | Giro dell'Emilia 2024: Can Tadej Pogacar secure his first win as the World Champion?

This weekend, the prestigious Giro dell’Emilia returns, marking the main race in the build-up to Il Lombardia. It’s a race that has long captivated cycling fans and is renowned for its dramatic uphill finale. This year’s edition, taking place on October 5th, promises to deliver yet another thrilling spectacle with a star-studded lineup, including the reigning champion of almost every major race he has contested, Tadej Pogacar.

But here’s a surprising fact, despite his domination of the cycling world, Pogacar has never won the Giro dell’Emilia. Yes, the Slovenian sensation, a rider with an almost mythical resume, has yet to conquer this challenging classic. It remains one of the very few races he has entered and never won, much like Milan-San Remo. But will this be the year the new rainbow jersey wearer finally crosses the finish line first on the famous San Luca climb?

The Giro dell'Emilia may not boast World Tour status, but its prestige is undeniable. Held in the Italian region of Emilia-Romagna, the race is famed for its brutal finish on the steep slopes of the San Luca climb. The peloton will face multiple ascents of this climb, which is not only visually stunning but also a test of sheer endurance and explosive power. The circuit around Bologna, culminating in the brutal 2.1 km San Luca ascent, makes for a dramatic conclusion that has seen many cycling greats falter in its final moments.

The Giro dell'Emilia has always attracted a world-class field, and 2024 is no different. Fresh off the back of the World Championships in Zurich and heading toward the season’s final monument, Il Lombardia, the race serves as a litmus test for riders looking to cap off their year in style.

2024 has been nothing short of legendary for Tadej Pogacar. His victory in the World Championships road race last weekend in Zurich was a crowning achievement, as he added the rainbow jersey to an already glittering collection. This year alone, Pogacar has conquered the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia, becoming only the third male rider in history to complete the elusive triple crown. Many are already calling his 2024 season one of the greatest in the sport’s history.

Despite all his accolades, there are a few rare gaps in Pogacar’s palmarès, and the Giro dell’Emilia is one of them. As the Slovenian prepares for his final target of the season, Il Lombardia, which he has already won three times in a row, he will be eager to add this Italian classic to his list of victories.

Pogacar’s form is undeniable. In fact, we saw him attack on the San Luca climb during this year’s Tour de France, where the race spent three days in Italy. On Stage 2, Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard distanced their rivals on the double ascent of the Madonna di San Luca, setting an unofficial record of 5:06 for the climb, 16 seconds faster than Primoz Roglic’s previous best. This climb has proven to suit him well, so can he finally claim the top spot this weekend?

Primoz Roglic has dominated the Giro dell’Emilia in recent years, winning the race three times: in 2023, 2021, and 2019. His most recent victory came at a pivotal moment in his career. Last year, the Slovenian claimed victory at the 106th edition of the race on the day he announced he would be leaving Jumbo-Visma for Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe, setting the stage for a new chapter in his storied career.

The 2023 edition saw Roglic triumph in a dramatic finale. As the riders tackled the San Luca climb for the fourth time, Adam Yates launched a stinging attack from the peloton, shattering the group and forming an elite selection at the head of the race. Pogacar, Roglic, Enric Mas, and Richard Carapaz were all present, with each rider eyeing the coveted win.

Aleksandr Vlasov was the first to launch his attack, but Adam Yates quickly countered, and soon after, the real fireworks began. Pogacar surged forward, testing his rivals, while Carapaz, Roglic, and Mas hung on for dear life. As the final meters approached, Roglic unleashed his decisive move with 500 meters to go. No one could match the Slovenian's power as he surged to victory, leaving Pogacar to settle for second place and Simon Yates in third.

Roglic’s history with the Giro dell’Emilia doesn’t stop there. In 2019, he not only won the race but also the opening time trial of the Giro d’Italia, which featured the very same San Luca climb. It’s a hill that Roglic knows very well, and his mastery of its brutal gradients will make him a favourite once again this weekend.

In 2022, Tadej Pogacar was once again a top contender at the Giro dell’Emilia, but victory slipped from his grasp. Enric Mas of Movistar delivered a brilliant performance, dropping Pogacar at the base of the San Luca climb and riding solo to the finish, securing a commanding win. Mas finished over 10 seconds ahead of the Slovenian, making it clear that he had truly got the better of one of cycling’s greatest talents on that day.

Mas, who has enjoyed a strong end to the 2024 season, including a third-place finish at the Vuelta a España, will be back at the Giro dell’Emilia, hoping to replicate his previous success. His ability to time his efforts perfectly on steep climbs makes him a dangerous rival, and Pogacar will need to be wary of the Spaniard once again.

The significance of the San Luca climb extends beyond the Giro dell’Emilia. Earlier this year, during the 2024 Tour de France, the peloton returned to San Luca for the second stage, which featured a double ascent of the climb. It was here that Tadej Pogacar made his first attack of the Tour, distancing all his rivals except for Jonas Vingegaard. On that day, Roglic, usually a dominant force on San Luca, struggled to keep pace as Pogacar and Vingegaard set an unofficial new record for the climb.

This connection between the Tour de France and Giro dell’Emilia adds an extra layer of intrigue to this weekend’s race. Can Pogacar replicate the form that saw him conquer San Luca earlier this season, or will Roglic rediscover the legs that carried him to victory last year?

As the peloton lines up for the Giro dell’Emilia, the focus will undoubtedly be on Tadej Pogacar. Will this be the year he finally claims victory on the slopes of San Luca, adding yet another illustrious win to his extraordinary 2024 season? Or will Primoz Roglic, the three-time champion, once again prove too strong for his compatriot?

Enric Mas, a former winner and a rider in excellent form, will also be a major contender. And let’s not forget Remco Evenepoel, fresh off his gold medal in the World Championships Time Trial. Evenepoel is always a threat on these types of courses, and his explosive climbing could upset the Slovenian duel.

One thing is for sure: the 2024 Giro dell’Emilia is shaping up to be a classic, with some of the biggest names in cycling set to battle it out for victory on one of the sport’s most iconic climbs. Will Pogacar finally complete the puzzle and win this elusive race? We’ll find out on Saturday October 5th.