ANALYSIS: Can Tadej Pogacar win his fourth Il Lombardia in a row?

Tadej Pogacar could cap off the greatest season in cycling history by winning Il Lombardia for the fourth consecutive time. As the final monument of the year, the prestigious Italian classic serves as a fitting battleground for Pogacar’s conclusion to his epic season. What adds another layer of intrigue to this year’s race is that it will be the first time he rides a monument wearing the rainbow jersey as the newly crowned World Champion.

What we witnessed last month in Zurich was nothing short of legendary. Pogacar cemented his place in cycling’s pantheon with a historic victory in the UCI Road World Championships, securing the coveted rainbow jersey for the first time in his career. This victory places him among an elite group of cyclists, joining only two other legends: Eddy Merckx and Stephen Roche, who have managed to win the Giro d’Italia, the Tour de France, and the World Championships all in the same year.

In 2024, Pogacar's dominance across multiple events has been staggering. After winning six stages to destroy the competition in the Giro d'Italia in May, he claimed another six stages in a crushing Tour de France victory in July. Earlier in the year, he won Liège-Bastogne-Liège, and took Strade Bianche, showcasing his versatility across terrains and formats. Just last week, he made his first appearance in the rainbow jersey with an emphatic victory at the Giro dell'Emilia, blowing away his rivals with his relentless climbing power. With momentum firmly on his side, the question remains: can he conclude this extraordinary season in style with another victory at Il Lombardia?

Even Remco Evenepoel, a standout rider in his own right this year, acknowledged Pogačar’s form heading into the race. Speaking to Sporza, Evenepoel remarked, “It’s logical that he’s the favourite, when you see how he’s been riding this year. He’s had nothing ahead of him, not a single fall, not a single broken thing. It’s a season that may never be repeated, by him, or by anyone in general.”

Pogacar has developed a particular affinity for Il Lombardia, known as "The Race of the Falling Leaves," held each October in the picturesque landscape of Northern Italy. The Slovenian has participated three times, and incredibly, has won each of those editions. His record at the race is as perfect as they come. Let’s take a closer look at his previous victories:

2023 Last year, Pogacar soloed to victory in a dominant display at Il Lombardia. The 2023 race was filled with drama and excitement, especially when Pogacar attacked with just over 30 kilometers remaining, choosing the descent of the Passo di Granda to make his move. Even though he appeared to suffer from cramps during his solo effort, his lead was never in jeopardy. He crossed the line in Bergamo nearly a minute ahead of his closest rivals, having shaken off Primoz Roglic, who was riding for Jumbo-Visma for the last time. This victory was a demonstration of Pogacar’s tactical intelligence, physical superiority, and ability to perform under pressure.

In 2022, Pogačar once again showcased his tactical brilliance and sprinting prowess. He completed the grueling course in 6 hours, 21 minutes, and 22 seconds, averaging a speed of 39.804 km/h. In the final moments of the race, he out-sprinted Spain’s Enric Mas to take victory, while Mikel Landa completed the podium in third. The sprint between Pogacar and Mas epitomised his well-rounded abilities, as the Slovenian can excel in climbs and is fully capable of winning a sprint finish.

The 2021 edition of Il Lombardia marked Pogačar’s first triumph at the monument. It was a thrilling contest, culminating in a sprint between Pogacar and Italy’s Fausto Masnada. Pogacar emerged victorious, with Adam Yates rounding out the podium in third place after winning the sprint for the chasing group. This victory announced Pogacar’s arrival as a rider who could conquer not only stage races but also the one-day classics that require a different skill set and tactical approach. We all know the story from there.

Il Lombardia, often regarded as the climbers’ monument, offers a brutal route that suits the likes of Pogacar. The 2024 edition will cover 252 kilometres of demanding terrain, featuring both long and short climbs through the stunning landscape of Northern Italy, nestled at the foot of the Alps. In total, riders will face 4,800 meters of elevation gain, making it one of the toughest one-day races on the calendar.

The race starts on relatively flat roads, but it doesn't take long for the peloton to be confronted with the relentless climbs that define the event. Climbers thrive in such conditions, and Pogacar, with his impeccable form and climbing pedigree, will likely relish the opportunity. The combination of long ascents, technical descents, and short, punchy hills offers an ideal platform for him to launch an attack, much like he has done in previous editions.

With the absence of Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard from the race, Pogacar's biggest threats are significantly reduced. Evenepoel, who remains a key rival, has admitted to feeling fatigued after a monumental summer. Not only did Evenepoel win double gold at the Paris Olympics, but he also claimed the white jersey at the Tour de France. He heads into Il Lombardia without the same sharpness and energy levels, which may leave the door open for Pogacar to seize control with more ease than if Evenepoel was in top form.

Il Lombardia is also the race where Evenepoel experienced the most terrifying moment of his career, a horrific crash in 2020, where he plunged over a bridge during the descent of the Muro di Sormano. That incident sidelined him for months, and it is yet to be seen whether those painful memories will have any lingering impact on his performance.

Although Roglič and Vingegaard won’t be present, there are still some riders who could pose a challenge to Pogačar, even if they are unlikely to match his form head-to-head. Evenepoel, despite his fatigue, is a strong contender whenever he lines up, especially with his time-trialing and climbing abilities.

Tadej Pogacar stands on the brink of making history at Il Lombardia, where a fourth consecutive victory would solidify his place among cycling’s all-time greats. His form this season has been near-flawless, and his ability to perform on the biggest stages is unmatched. With the rainbow jersey on his back, he carries not only the momentum of recent victories but also the confidence of having triumphed here three times before.

The 2024 edition of Il Lombardia seems tailor-made for Pogacar, with a route that suits his strengths and a start list missing some of his most dangerous rivals. It would take something extraordinary to prevent the Slovenian from adding another monument to his already glittering palmarès. As the season draws to a close, all eyes will be on Bergamo, where Pogacar could put the final stamp on one of the most remarkable seasons in cycling history.

At this point, it appears to be a matter of whether he attacks with over 100 kilometres to go or not.