Tom Dumoulin backs Tadej Pogacar and not Mathieu van der Poel at Liège: "Pogacar at 95% can still win this race with two fingers up his nose"

Tom Dumoulin has many times attempted the Liège-Bastogne-Liège - Giro d'Italia combination but never managed to have his best legs in both. He doesn't doubt that Tadej Pogacar may however, and he backs the Slovenian to win comfortably unless something unusual happens.

"Anyway, nowadays you see that the real toppers such as Primož Roglič and Pogačar come back from altitude and immediately fly. They seem to be able to do that, I found that difficult. It's different for everyone," Dumoulin said in words to Wielerflits. "Maybe Pogačar handled it smarter than I did at the time. But because the Giro always starts two weeks after Liège, I wanted to come back as late as possible. Then I made the choice to spend a little less time in Liège, which was always the case. Pogačar's choice is different and then you can simply be top in Liège.”

However judging by recent history, it does not seem likely that the UAE Team Emirates rider will lack form. In his very first race day of the season, at none other than Strade Bianche, he attacked with 81 kilometers to go and won by a margin of several minutes. Hence, the month without racing that he's had ahead of Liège should not be an obstacle for the Slovenian who keeps racking up victories.

"Motivation has never been a problem for me in a first race after an altitude training period and it will not be the case for Pogačar either. I just expect him to be good. The only question is whether he is already in absolute top form, or whether this still has to happen towards the Giro. Anyway, Pogačar at 95% can still win this race with two fingers up his nose," the Dutchman argues.

Not the best sign for his rivals, and Dumoulin thinks the race can be decided in the same climb where Remco Evenepoel attacked to victory over the past two years. “Well, if Pogačar is going all out from top to bottom at La Redoute, then I don't think there is much that can be done about it. If I'm completely honest, I don't give Mathieu much of a chance," Dumoulin adds. "Then he simply falls short, because he is more heavily built.

"A scenario in which the two of them ride to the finish line seems very unlikely to me. Let's just be honest: Pogačar has the better chances of winning on Sunday. You can think of hundreds of scenarios how Mathieu van der Poel or anyone else can beat Pogačar. But I think if Pogačar's team has everything under control and he has the legs he had all pre-season, he will just blast away whenever he wants."

Truly, the main scenario in which the Slovenian does not win this Sunday's race relies on him having a bad day, and not the competition having a good one. However everything is possible in cycling, and specially when we've got bad weather on the forecast.

"Suppose Pogačar is just a few percent lower, because he still feels his altitude training. And that Mathieu suddenly finds his legs from Flanders and Roubaix again. Then Pogačar won't be able to get him off. And then in the sprint with two against each other on a flat road, Mathieu obviously has the best chance," Dumoulin concludes, leaving a very possible scenario on the table.