This Saturday, all eyes will once again be on Tadej Pogacar as the world champion looks to finally get the win he so craves at Milano-Sanremo. Although much of the pre-race talk suggests Pogacar could be planning an early attack on the Cipressa, Italian cycling legend and 2005 Milano-Sanremo winner Alessandro Petacchi urges patience.
"I think it's clear that Pogacar will go all out trying to win. He’ll have his team set up to push hard on the Cipressa to put the sprinters in difficulty," begins the 51-year-old Italian in conversation with Bici.Pro, addressing Pogacar's likely strategy. As mentioned though, Petacchi isn't convinced that's the right strategy. "The more teammates he has on the Poggio, the better, because when you're at the front and protected, you save a lot of energy. You don’t feel the sting in the hairpin turns that really hits you at those speeds. In my opinion, if he has two riders maintaining a high pace, it will be much easier for him. When he attacks, he’ll do more damage because everyone else will already be at their limit."
"I think it would be tough (to go on the Cipressa), because he’d be on his own and there are still 10 kilometres of the Aurelia with the group behind pulling hard," explains Petacchi. "He might try, but then he wouldn’t be fresh for the Poggio."
Although the Cipressa might be considered too far for mere mortals, Pogacar has already proven repeatedly that he doesn't concern himself with such trivial concerns, as demonstrated most notably by a 100km attack to win the World Championships in 2024. "It’s not the same thing. The course was very different; the World Championship was definitely more challenging, and that's where it made a difference," analyses Petacchi though. "In Milano-Sanremo, you crest the Cipressa with 70 riders, and the team leaders still have their teammates with them. Even if he gains 20 seconds, I don’t think it would be enough. In that case, Mathieu van der Poel and Filippo Ganna would have to wait and let the teams do the work. Of course, if four or five riders followed him, that would change everything, but that would be a totally unprecedented scenario for Milano-Sanremo."
"I believe it will only be UAE Team Emirates - XRG pushing hard. Trying to drop Pogacar uphill would be foolish, so the others will have to wait and try to respond. Van der Poel is the only one who managed to attack him two years ago, but that meant he was going twice as fast as the others," concludes Petacchi. "Pogacar definitely deserves it for what he’s been trying to do for years. But Van Der Poel is in excellent form as well. Ganna is a bit more of an unknown, but he will definitely be among the main protagonists."
Despite not ruling out Van der Poel and Ganna, when pressed to jump off the fence and predict one winner for this Saturday though, Petacchi is firm and clear. "I’ll go with Pogacar."
Don't think patience is something Tadej understands, he'll go when he feels its right to go