Primoz Roglic: The Twilight of a Champion or a Second Chance?

Primoz Roglic has become a name synonymous with the Vuelta a Espana, and the Slovenian rider has 3 red jerseys to his name already. But, as he prepares to tackle the 2024 edition of La Vuelta a España, questions swirl around his form, fitness, and future in the sport.

At 34 years old, Roglič is no stranger to adversity, having weathered numerous setbacks throughout his career. This year is no different, as Roglic’s Tour de France hopes were ruined by yet another crash on the French roads in July.

But, we’ve seen this story before. A failed yellow jersey attempt has often led to a successful Spanish campaign for Roglic, and he’ll be hoping this year he can repeat this feat. As the peloton gears up for the final Grand Tour of the season, many are left wondering: Is this the twilight of Roglič's GC hopes, or could it be the dawn of a new chapter in his storied career?

Primož Roglič’s relationship with La Vuelta a España is one of triumph and redemption. A former ski jumper, Roglič transitioned to cycling later than most professional riders, but quickly made a name for himself with his aggressive riding style and remarkable time-trialling abilities. His three victories in La Vuelta in 2019, 2020, and 2021 cemented his status as one of the top Grand Tour contenders of his generation. These victories were not just testaments to his physical prowess but also to his mental resilience. Each of these wins came in seasons where Roglič had faced significant setbacks, whether it be a crash, a disappointing performance in another Grand Tour, or a close defeat that could have easily derailed his confidence.

In 2020, for instance, Roglič's heartbreaking loss to Tadej Pogačar in the Tour de France, where he saw the yellow jersey slip away on the penultimate stage, could have crushed his spirit. Instead, Roglič bounced back with an indomitable performance in La Vuelta, securing his second consecutive title. The narrative repeated in 2021 after another catastrophic Tour, this where he suffered a crash and had to abandon. Once again, he found redemption in Spain, proving that when the chips are down, Roglič has the extraordinary ability to rise to the occasion.

Fast forward to 2024, and the story of Primož Roglič is one of a veteran rider at a crossroads. The year has not been kind to him. After an impressive win in the Criterium du Dauphine earlier in the season, where he showcased his climbing prowess and tactical acumen, Roglič set his sights on the Tour de France. However, the Tour was nothing short of a disaster for both Roglič and his new team, Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe. Despite promising early signs, with Roglič growing into the race and looking like a potential podium contender, disaster struck on Stage 12. A high-speed crash resulted in a fractured lower back, forcing him to abandon the race. The Slovenian was then forced to watch on as Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel put on a show, leaving many wondering whether the ‘big four,’ are now simply the, ‘big three.’

The injury not only ended his Tour de France campaign but also cast a long shadow over his prospects for the rest of the season. Recovering from such a serious injury is no small feat, and the physical and mental toll it takes on an athlete cannot be underestimated. As Roglič enters La Vuelta, there are legitimate concerns about his fitness and whether he can endure the gruelling three weeks of racing that lie ahead.

Adding to the pressure is the fact that Roglič is now riding for a new team. His move to Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe was one of the most talked-about transfers in the off-season, and expectations were high. However, the team's debut in the Tour de France under the Red Bull banner was nothing short of disastrous. Roglič's crash and subsequent withdrawal were compounded by a lacklustre performance from the rest of the squad, raising questions about the team's chemistry, strategy, and overall competitiveness at the Grand Tour level.

Despite these challenges, Primož Roglič enters La Vuelta a España 2024 as one of the top favorites. This is in part due to the absence of some of the sport's biggest names. Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Remco Evenepoel, who have dominated the Grand Tour scene in recent years, are all skipping La Vuelta this year. Their absence opens the door for Roglič to potentially add a fourth Vuelta title to his palmarès, assuming he is fit and can avoid the kind of bad luck that has plagued his 2024 season.

With these riders out of the picture, the path to victory is less cluttered, though certainly not easy. Roglič will still face stiff competition from a host of talented riders eager to make their mark, including the likes of João Almeida, Enric Mas, and Sepp Kuss, among others.

For Roglič, La Vuelta 2024 is more than just a race; it's an opportunity to solidify his legacy as one of the greats of the sport. Winning a fourth Vuelta would not only put him in elite company but also serve as a powerful statement that, despite the setbacks, he remains a force to be reckoned with in the twilight of his career.

However, the stakes are high. A subpar performance or another injury could raise further doubts about his future at the top level. The cycling world is notoriously unforgiving, and with younger talents like Evenepoel and Pogačar constantly raising the bar, the margin for error is slim. For Roglič, the 2024 Vuelta is a pivotal moment—one that could define the latter stages of his career.

Now more than ever, Primoz must stay on his bike.

As the peloton rolls out of Lisbonfor the start of La Vuelta a España, all eyes will be on Primož Roglič. Can he defy the odds once again, as he has done so many times before? His track record suggests that it would be foolish to count him out. Roglič has made a career out of overcoming adversity, and there is no reason to believe he cannot do it again.

His experience, tactical nous, and ability to perform in the high mountains and against the clock make him a formidable contender, even if he is not at 100%. Moreover, the absence of key rivals could play into his hands, allowing him to approach the race with a strategic mindset that maximizes his strengths while mitigating his weaknesses.

At 34, Roglic may no longer be in the prime of his career, but he remains a rider of exceptional talent and tenacity. As he embarks on yet another quest for glory in Spain, the question is not just whether he can win, but what a victory would mean for his legacy. A GC great, or another champion who just fell short of greatness?