PREVIEW | Vuelta a Espana 2024 stage 14 - Another breakaway day for certain but will the GC riders move on long final climb?

Stage 14 of the Vuelta a Espana takes the riders into the mountains once again but it is much easier than the previous and next day. We should see another fight for the breakaway win on this day but the spectacle is assured whatever happens.

Stage 14 is an interesting day in the mountains Certainly one for the breakaway, but it does feature a climb where a lot can happen. It is the longest stage of the race and the only one that goes above 200 kilometers. Well, only by a few meters; race organizers really tried to make it a short route and so this day somewhat stands out from the rest. On the menu a day in the mountains but quite an unusual one. A mostly flat start and without any serious climbing until the final kilometers.

Before the finale in Villablino, the peloton tackles the ascent of Leitariegos which is 22.8 kilometers long at 4.5%. The climb ends with just until 17 kilometers to go, it is very constant at a 4/5%, so the riders will be in the big-ring all the way to the summit. This means that despite it's length it's not necessarily one for the climbers - puncheurs and rouleurs can also win here. The high speeds mean this will be a tactical climb and timing can be very key.

Only the final 3 kilometers are going to be flat. There is a descent all the way to there, but actually the final sprint will be relatively uphill which can be interesting if it comes down to one.

The Weather

A cool and cloudy day in the mountains with a small southwestern breeze - which coincides as a tailwind in the first part of the stage. In the final climb it could come, if it's felt, as a slight crosswind.

The Favourites

GC Fight - Ben O'Connor showed struggles again today. His chances of winning the Vuelta have faded, he is not in his best form and will likely lose red in Cuitu Negru. However, by all means, he stays in red and Decathlon won't want to chase down any breakaway here for obvious reasons. Decathlon will not burn Felix Gall if necessary for the Australian either. But the climb is so shallow that just to get separation it will need a massive attack... Either ways I do not think BORA and Primoz Roglic will feel the pressure anymore to attack O'Connor; the race is now against the men behind him.

We see a lot of pure climbers such as Enric Mas, Mikel Landa, Sepp Kuss; these are not riders who can make a difference on such climb. If we have someone on a very good day perhaps there may be a couple moves. Riders like Mattias Skjelmose or Pavel Sivakov who are strong but outside the Top10 may surely have it in mind as they shouldn't be covered by the main favourites.

Breakaway contenders - This is likely another day for the breakaway to succeed. Not much GC action is expected with these gradients, the built up fatigue and the monster stage coming the day after... It is not one where it is easy to surprise early on for the rouleurs however the climb - albeit long - is not steep and is not exclusive for the climbers. Plenty riders can succeed and launching early moves in the ascent can indeed be key because in a group there won't be much urge to work.

We may have climbers in contention such as Eddie Dunbar, Harold Tejada, Max Poole, Pablo Castrillo, Mattia Cattaneo, Rein Taaramäe, Carlos Verona, Marc Soler, Cian Uijtdebroeks and Jay Vine are all riders to consider. But they will need strong legs to capitalize on their climbing form because this is a big-ring climb from top to bottom.

Rouleur and puncheur can also thrive in this terrain, it isn't too hard for them and the climb can be very tactical. Wout van Aert has been burning up quite a lot of energy but this is honestly a good finale for him. Jhonatan Narváez, Mauro Schmid, Quentin Pacher, Mauri Vansevenant and Mathias Vacek are riders to consider. Perhaps, on their best day, some of these are even the main favourites.

Prediction 2024 Vuelta a España 2024 stage 14:

*** Mattia Cattaneo, Wout van Aert, Jhonatan Narváez
** Pablo Castrillo, Mauro Schmid, Max Poole
* Primoz Roglic, Richard Carapaz, Mattias Skjelmose, Carlos Verona, Mathias Vacek, Eddie Dunbar, Quentin Pacher

Pick: Mattia Cattaneo