PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2025 stage 4 - Sprint or explosive GC day into Victor Harbor?

The battle for the overall classification has officially opened up today, but on stage 4 we should see the sprinters in action again. However, it's a tricky finale into Victor Harbor, and we preview what can be another important day for the outcome of the race.

Stage 4 is another explosive day that can be dangerous and even decisive for the GC. It's the only stage of the race that does not finish in a circuit, it's a tricky one too. An uphill start, a couple climbs throughout the day... A day for puncheurs and where it's possible for late attacks to succeed.

Nettle Hill close to the finale features some tough gradients and we can certainly see attacks there, it will be the key point of the day. It's 1.8 kilometers long at 8.4% and finishes with 21.5 kilometers to go. The steepest climb in the race, it can certainly see big moves. What happens after depends on the situation at the summit.

There is another small rise which is 2.4 kilometers long at over 3% where more attacks can come, mostly from rouleurs, closer to the finish with just over 10 to go. A small downhill and then a relatively technical finale into Victor Harbor. A flat one, but with a roundabout coming with only 400 meters to go. Positioning all the way at the front will be important.

Some southern wind, which means we will have a block tailwind on Nettle Hill, certainly good to spark aggressive racing. However, most of the way back to Victor Harbor will have a headwind, which will make it hard for riders to stay away if there is a concerted chase. It will make it a tricky stage again.

GC Fight - We now have Javier Romo in the lead and the Spaniard is a strong climber with some advantage over the rest, this is not something that can be left to Willunga Hill alone, several teams will want to attack this finale and do what he did today. The climb is steeper and I believe differences can truly be made in the final kilometer. If it's raced hard enough, there may not be enough time to organize a proper chase capable of bringing back a group of two or three riders that collaborate well. So those who climb best can do a lot - even if not directly, they will likely isolate Romo.

But this is a short climb, it's an effort for the puncheurs. Jhonatan Narváez and Finn Fisher-Black honestly feel the strongest and this applies to a possible reduced group sprint too. Rémy Rochas and Oscar Onley looked tremendous today as well, whilst the likes of Jay Vine and Luke Plapp are always expected to be near their best at this time.

But all the riders who were in the front group can be considered contenders for the stage win, because it's a similar finale and all proved their climbing legs. Lidl-Trek completely failed in using their numbers today, but with Juan Pedro López, Bauke Mollema, Andrea Bagioli and Patrick Konrad they can use tactics in the run-up to the finish with attacks. I wouldn't discount Stephen Williams from a strong ride, today the crash hampered him. Georg Zimmermann and Michal Kwiatkowski are also outsiders.

Sprint? - Lidl could very much try to make it work for Albert Philipsen this time around. Don't expect a bunch sprint, the likes of Welsford and Bauhaus will not be in contention for the stage win. They should be dropped, but riders like Corbin Strong, Matthew Brennan, Tobias Lund Andresen, Rui Oliveira, Andrea Vendrame, Lars Boven, Henri Uhlig, Casper Pedersen, Bryan Coquard, Danny van Poppel and Laurence Pithie being dangerous.

Strong definitely showed legs today and with Israel completely missing out on the GC group, they may prioritize a work around the Kiwi. From the other riders, their position and chances to fight for the stage win very much depend on how hard the climb is raced. If it's left only to the final 500 meters then the gaps won't be too big and groups can come together relatively quickly. If there is a big stretched out peloton and an all-out pace from the start, many will be too far, and the smaller groups will contribute for more efficient collaboration out front.

*** Jhonatan Narváez, Finn Fisher-Black
** Corbin Strong, Andrea Bagioli, Luke Plapp
* Jay Vine, Oscar Onley, Patrick Konrad, Stephen Williams, Georg Zimmermann, Albert Philipsen, Matthew Brennan, Tobias Lund Andresen, Bryan Coquard, Danny van Poppel, Laurence Pithie

Pick: Jhonatan Narváez