PREVIEW | Tour de Pologne 2024 stage 3 - Jonas Vingegaard to try and defend race lead in roller-coaster stage

From the 12th to 18th of August we have on the road the Tour de Pologne. It collides with other big races in the calendar but every year it features a quality startlist with all kinds of riders. The seven stages will provide plenty opportunities in the only World Tour stage-race that comes between the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana. We preview stage 3.

A very difficult day starting and finishing in locations that the average European will struggle to pronounce. But for the overall classification riders, they have no option but to know exactly what they are facing because this could be the most dangerous day of the entire race. Over 3100 meters of climbing in 155 kilometers with lots of climbing right from the start.

The depart in Walbrzych features right away a 1.3-kilometer ascent at 7.4% and 2.6Km at 6.9%... After that there are three second category ascents (and a difficult non-categorized one) which will make any chase difficult. Strong groups may gain advantage that will be hard to bring back. The most difficult of which is 2 kilometers long at 9.7%. Towards the final third of the stage there is a small section where it is possible to reorganize before the final ascents, but it is a difficult one to control.

The ascent to Karlow is 7 kilometers long at 5%, finishing with 18.5 kilometers to go, with a plateau right after the top. After a small descent the peloton still faces an explosive hilltop finish where in one way or another differences are promised and a thrilling finish is likely. The final 900 meters average 8% and the gradients go up to 14% before gradually coming down to the finish line.

The Weather

An eastern breeze which could come as a little headwind at the start of the stage. During the day it changes a lot, and in the final kilometers it will come as a crosswind.

The Favourites

Visma - The Dutch are now in the lead and in the position they wanted. Even with Jonas Vingegaard far from his best form and Wilco Kelderman crashing on the time-trial, they are first and second. This makes them the main favourites for the race, but it doesn't mean the GC victory is secure. They are both climbers and this isn't a climbers' race. Here they will have a tricky stage and they aren't favourites to win it, but they should be able to cover things with a good collective. If anyone takes risks from far Kelderman will be tasked with responding and avoiding the chaos.

Thibau Nys - For the GC no, that is obvious. But Nys doesn't care about that, as shown in today's TT where he wheelied across the finish. I don't think Trek can control the race much but they don't have much pressure either as they already won a stage. If the peloton goes into the final climb fighting for the win it's hard to see anyone but him winning. His power on these short explosive uphill efforts is far beyond anyone else in the race. But the stage does include longer climbs that can put him under difficulty if raced very hard.

UAE - The goal is GC, and honestly they can still take it. A bad opening day saw Tim Wellens and Felix Grossschartner lose time. Today they both rode a brilliant time-trial suggeting good form but they can only be used as early cards. However that is doable. The duo, Jan Christen and Rafal Majka can and should attack tomorrow's stage hard from the start and try to create a strong group up front. It can help their GC chances but at the same time put pressure on Visma. Diego Ulissi will be tasked with staying in the peloton... He is Visma's main rival right now and the finale suits him very well, he can realistically jump to second and/or claw back time on the Visma duo.

If the likes of UAE and Bahrain for example attack the start of the stage hard it could become a very interesting day and one hard to control. Late in the day it will be hard to put Visma under pressure because they have two strong climbers and if necessary, Kelderman can be used in a last resort to keep things in check for Vingegaard. I think Pello Bilbao of Bahrain should definitely go on the attack, Bahrain have cards to play and with Edoardo Zambanini and Matej Mohoric sitting sixth and seventh they can still realistically fight for the podium and more, they are rivals to Visma.

EF also put on a good showing on the opening day. Lukas Nerurkar had a bad time-trial and could have some more freedom, but is a contender for a sprint finish. We've got Romain Gregoire and possibly Laurence Pithie as cards for Groupama. Jakob Fuglsang, Nicola Conci, Mikkel Honoré, Christian Scaroni, Romain Bardet, Oscar Onley, Max Schachmann and Aurélien Paret-Peintre are also interesting contenders for the stage win.

The likes of Magnus Sheffield and Yannis Voisard sit fifth and ninth, they should be in contention but focusing on their GC result.

Prediction Tour de Pologne 2024 stage 3:

*** Thibau Nys, Diego Ulissi
** Wilco Kelderman, Jonas Vingegaard, Tim Wellens
* Lukas Nerurkar, Jan Christen, Felix Grossschartner, Matej Mohoric, Romain Grégoire, Jakob Fuglsang, Mikkel Honoré

Pick: Thibau Nys