PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 3 - Will Milan or Merlier get revenge on Philipsen in the race's second bunch sprint?
Cycling
We preview stage 3 of the Tour de France, the likely second bunch sprint of the race where the wind will blow hard once again. Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier and Jasper Philipsen will be the headliners of the race.
The third day of racing will take place between Valenciennes and Dunkerque and will be another day for the sprinters, to close out the Grand Depart on the Hauts-de-France region. There is not much to analyze from the day, it is almost a pan-flat day, with the exception of a very small climb.
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That will be... Mont Cassel, once again. Like in stage 1, the peloton will go up the cobbled ascent, but it won't be hard enough to create serious damage. All focus is on the final sprint and it will be a very fast one with great certainty.
The final 30 kilometers are almost on a complete straight line heading into the coastal city and then we turn into a smaller road with 1.5 kilometers to go. It is not a technical finale and should be a very fast one where timing will be crucial.
The Weather
The rain will be falling early in the day once again, the peloton will really have no luck. The wind will also be blowing very hard once again, however what effect will it have? It will come from the north, so in the first half of the day certainly there will be a lot of tension and I wouldn't be surprised to see Visma try to blow it up once again. But late in the day it will come as a headwind, which means it's unlikely to see big moves and the finale will be calmer.
The Favourites
Headwind sprint means positioning isn't as crucial. Timing for the sprint will be crucial and we may have a surprise winner. Jonathan Milan, Jasper Philipsen and Jordi Meeus in my opinion have the very best leadouts - equally comparable - but here I wouldn't say that they will have the absolute advantage over each other or the competition.
This is going to be a completely flat stage, not too likely to have explosive action before the finish, so everyone will likely arrive relatively fresh and there aren't really any selection to gauge. Tim Merlier on the other hand does not have anywhere near the leadout of his rivals and so perhaps this would come as his best opportunity of taking a win in the bunch sprints - he showed he has the speed today.
Below them I would put Biniam Girmay who is looking strong but doesn't look to have the speed to beat head-to-head one of the men above - and has gotten slightly injured today - which means he may not have the best of days. But you will have several riders who are capable of being in that finale and being in the top of the standings or close.
Take Dylan Groenewegen, Soren Waerenskjold, Alberto Dainese and Pascal Ackermann for example who may very well have the speed to challenge the top men - and again, leadout won't be as crucial on this finale.
Pavel Bittner will sprint for Picnic, Ackermann for Israel and not Jake Stewart; and we have men like Phil Bauhaus, Arnaud De Lie, Cees Bol, Bryan Coquard, Arnaud Démare, Anthony Turgis and Paul Penhoët who should have interest in the finale.
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Prediction Tour de France 2025 stage 3:
*** Jonathan Milan, Jasper Philipsen, Tim Merlier
** Jordi Meeus, Biniam Girmay, Soren Waerenskjold
* Dylan Groenewegen, Alberto Dainese, Pascal Ackermann, Phil Bauhaus, Bryan Coquard, Pavel Bittner, Anthony Turgis, Arnaud De Lie
** Jordi Meeus, Biniam Girmay, Soren Waerenskjold
* Dylan Groenewegen, Alberto Dainese, Pascal Ackermann, Phil Bauhaus, Bryan Coquard, Pavel Bittner, Anthony Turgis, Arnaud De Lie
Pick: Tim Merlier
How: Regular bunch sprint, coming from behind.
Original: Rúben Silva
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Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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