Preview stage 3 Tour Down Under 2026 - Brennan and Welsford headline final pure sprint into Nairne

We preview stage 3 of the Tour Down Under that is set to take place on the 23rd January, having an estimated start time at 02:10CET and finishing at 05:10CET. Following UAE's domination in Uraidla, this is going to be a day that should finish in a sprint, however with a few climbs on the day where we could see some surprises.

The third stage is a relative novelty in the race, taking the riders from Henley Beach to Nairne in a route that should suit the sprinters; however may also see surprises as it starts with quite a difficult set of climbs, and has some minor difficulties all throughout the day. The stage's length could also potentially make it attractive for a breakaway.

The first kilometers of the stage feature two climbs that are over 2 kilometers long at 6%. With gaps created the previous days, more riders will have freedom to attack, but whether they will attempt or not remains to be seen. The climb to Wickham Hill early on is 2.9 kilometers long at 7%, not close enough to the finish to be a key moment, but it can definitely harm the legs of some sprinters.

The stage then follows hilly roads all round, continuing all the way to the finale in Nairne. There are no set points to attack, however some of the sprinters may arrive to the finish having suffered a lot previously, specially with a small hilltop that ends with a mere 3 kilometers to go.

The wind will not be as strong, but the heat will surely intensify, and the riders will be going into the 30's which can definitely make the race harder for many.

Matthew Brennan - We're going to have to assume we're heading to a bunch sprint, as it's rare to see aggressive racing at the Tour Down Under, and the climbs aren't that hard. But a few teams will want to push some climbs, for sure, and Visma is amongst them. Matthew Brennan should be able to handle them quite well, and in a bunch sprint he showed in Tanunda that he had the speed to win, only not the positioning.

Sam Welsford - This can be quite key, and Sam Welsford will know. The pressure will perhaps be on the Australian's shoulders the most out of anyone, as its the last opportunity for him to win in a race that over the past years was the only one where he could truly make an impact. He has the speed, that is certain, but a tougher stage will make it harder for him whilst the competition is extensive.

Tobias Lund Andresen - I believe Andresen's victory in Tanunda was obtained due to his positioning advantage over the two above, but that's fair game and and a viable way to take the victory. He could do it again, and in all fairness he is someone who can handle climbs.

However we've only had one sprint thus far, where a few riders didn't even get to show their form. So tomorrow is still going to be a novelty for some, and the last chance for many. Take riders like Juan Sebastián Molano or Alberto Dainese, who have got some serious pure speed and have to show it in Nairne otherwise they will leave the race empty handed. I expect to see a lot of risks, specially if the stage is indeed calm and the peloton goes fresh into the finale.

Danny van Poppel and Ethan Vernon stand out as riders with the speed, the leadout and already with a strong result in Tanunda that they can hold on to for some hope, they will definitely want to be winning as well but Stirling could also see both performing.

Casper van Uden, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Aaron Gate, Maikel Zijlaard, Luke Lamperti, Lionel Taminiaux, Jensen Plowright and Liam Walsh are all men to take it up to the top sprinters as well and be part of the finale.

*** Matthew Brennan, Sam Welsford
** Tobias Lund Andresen, Danny van Poppel, Ethan Vernon
* Juan Sebastian Molano, Alberto Dainese, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Casper van Uden, Maikel Zijlaard, Luke Lamperti, Jensen Plowright, Lionel Taminiaux, Liam Walsh

Pick: Matthew Brennan

How: Regular bunch sprint.