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PREVIEW | Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2023 - Will Tadej Pogacar conquer the Ardennes triptych or will Remco Evenepoel defend his title?
CyclingSunday, 23 April 2023 at 10:01
Preview. The fourth monument of the season! The final Ardennes classic and the final spring classic of the year is Liège-Bastogne-Liège, which will take place on the 23rd of April and will be a final opportunity for the classics riders and climbers to take a season-changing win.
The race features a whole 258.5 kilometers making it one of the longest in the calendar. Through the Belgian Ardennes, it's a full day of climbing, although they are short hills. The action gets more intense towards the end, and the race should be decided in the final kilometers that, as always, features several difficult climbs that will split the race before reaching Liège.
Estimated start and finish time Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2023: 10:30 - 16:53CET.
Liège - Liège, 258 kilometers
Liège is the Ardennes classic that suits the climbers the most. It has the most amount of climbing out of them, with over 4300 meters on the menu and although it doesn’t feature any mountain, there are some longer ascents to tackle which can be used to drain the energy of the more explosive riders.
A lot of it comes in the final 100 kilometers. There will begin a long sequence of climbs, with virtually no flat roads inbetween. With 78.5 kilometers to go you have the steepest climb of the day the Côte du Stockeau (1km at 12.8%) and the longest which is the Col du Rosier (4km at 5.7%) with 60 kilometers to go.
Côte de la Roche aux Faucons: 1.3Km; 10%; 13.5Km to go
With 47Km to go there’s the Côte de Desnié (1.6Km at 7.5%), and the penultimate climb is the Côte de la Redoute which summits with 34 kilometers to go. It's not being climbed to the top this year, featuring 1.6 kilometers at 8.7% and right after the summit following a short descent and hilltop where the race can, like last year, see a decisive attack. The Côte des Forges comes after, featuring 1.3Km at 7.9% ending with 23.5Km to go.
The decisive point of the race will be the Côte de la Roche Aux Faucons. It is the final climb of the day, and the small hilltop afterwards (which I consider part of it) can be just as crucial for the race. It is 1.3Km long at 10.5%, essentially the same data as the Mur de Huy but without such gruesome gradients.
It summits with 13.5 kilometers to go, will it however see decisive attacks? It may not, as there are only some seconds of rest before a small second hilltop which has 1,2Km at 6.3% (10Km to the finish). This is a weird combination of climbs, where riders risk cracking on the second if they go all-out to make the differences in the first climb. If they save up for the last hilltop, they risk carrying a big group in the wheel, the tactics can be very interesting.
The descent into Liège is fast and only the final two kilometers are flat, if a rider makes it over the climbs alone it'll be near impossible to close gaps.
Finale Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2023
The Weather
Map Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2023
Rain will likely start to fall during the race. It'll be a tricky one to manage, the riders will find some wind from the southeast but the gusts will be quite strong, making it possible that in some exposed sections it will be significantly stronger and provide opportunities to surprise. A tailwind up La Redoute and the following kilometers makes it attractive for attacks. Afterwards it's almost completely up and down, but with the ascents covered from the wind - I would say neither good or bad for those out in front.
The Favourites
Note: The preview will be updated once the startlist is confirmed.
Tadej Pogacar - The man in form. Pogacar has won Liège already in 2021 under a reduced group sprint and is very well suited to this race, loving the short explosive ascents, the long races and packing a strong sprint. After winning the Tour of Flanders, Amstel Gold Race and Flèche Wallone consecutively it will be a hard task to defeat him, as UAE also look quite strong and only bad luck would see him out of contention.
Remco Evenepoel - Evenepoel has been preparing for the Giro d'Italia. If 2022 has taught us anything however is that it is possible to arrive at a classic two weeks before a Grand Tour in great form, as he dominantly won the Clásica San Sebastian. In my opinion he should focus on the bigger picture, but clearly this race means a lot to him and he wants to defend it. The World Champion hasn't raced since Catalunya but should arrive with good legs from an altitude camp, he could be Pogacar's main rival. Having significantly improved his sprint, he won't be shy of collaborating with Pogacar for a two-up finish if needed.
Trek - Segafredo - Mattias Skjelmose impressed and raced to second at Fléche Wallone. This isn't a big surprise, the Dane is definitely stepping up to world-class level. There Giulio Ciccone under the radar rode to fifth on the day. Both are strong climbers and should not have a problem with the additional amount of climbing - could even benefit. Their double presence, alongside an in-form Bauke Mollema, could make it an interesting team.
Bahrain - Mikel Landa was third at Flèche. I wouldn't normally consider him a top favourite for this race, but I dare to say the Basque is in the best form of his career. The level is much superior currently to that of the mid/late 2010's but he has returned to fighting for big wins. Second behind Pogacar at Andalucia and behind Vingegaard at Itzulia, he has not also raced to a surprising podium in the Mur de Huy, a race that doesn't suit him. The larger amount of climbing in Liège will be good for him. Pello Bilbao should love the rainy conditions, Matej Mohoric and Wout Poels will be further good cards to play.
Michael Woods - Fourth at Fléche Wallone, Woods comes in with promising form. Motivated and in his best level since 2021 according to his own words, the Canadian could race to a 7th Top10 in as many finished races. He was second in 2018 and will enjoy the steep ascents, I can't imagine him directly beating the ones at the top but the podium is definitely open.
Cofidis - A very strong team. The French team is normally in the lower part of the World Tour but this week I rate them quite high. Even after a late crash Victor Lafay rode to sixth at Fléche Wallone, after he won in Doubs last week - with Jesús Herrada doing the same. Both Ion Izagirre and Guillaume Martin are also in good form and I'd say this race suits both better than the previous Ardennes. Cofidis have depth, they could try to use their numbers early on.
EF Education - Ben Healy is definitely now on the radar, and here the rolling roads between climbs could see him try to surprise. The American team would have Neilson Powless as a great leader following a tremendous spring but the results haven't came this week which isn't as promising for the team. Esteban Chaves and Mikkel Honoré however provide more cards for the team to play and have there at the end.
Tom Pidcock - I will be honest, expectations aren't high. Pidcock is incredibly talented and at his best level is definitely a contender to win Liège, but his inconsistency and this year struggle with endurance has been felt. He felt the fatigue from Amstel at Fléche Wallone and there's a chance he'll now feel the fatigue from both. Magnus Sheffield would be an interesting alternative for INEOS, as is Pavel Sivakov who comes straight from the Tour of the Alps.
BORA - hansgrohe - Sergio Higuita had bad luck in Flèche which cost him a lot of energy. Far from a certainty, but he's a well suited rider to this type of profile. Jai Hindley has also shown good form throughout the Ardennes, a pure climber he could enjoy Liège better. As for Aleksandr Vlasov he's built good form at the Tour of the Alps. He's eyeing the Giro d'Italia, but I think he's definitely gotten the form necessary to fight for a strong result here already.
Tiesj Benoot & Attila Valter - 7th and 11th at Fléche Wallone, both were at the expected level. Can they fight for more in Liège? It's definitely a race where numbers can be used better, it'll be the final day of the spring classics and they know they will have to seize one of their last opportunities to lead over the coming months.
Movistar - Enric Mas is a tricky card. He didn't find his legs at Flèche Wallone, however that was a pure classic where positioning and little details are crucial - conditions in which he does not often compete in. Liège is more about the legs on the day and he should be able to find his own better. He's one of the few who knows what it's like to drop Pogacar, however I think he'll be happy with a more modest result this Sunday. Alex Aranburu and Ruben Guerreiro will be men to watch as well from the Spanish team.
Romain Bardet - Ninth at Flèche Wallone Bardet showed good form. Now I rate him as more than an outsider but a podium contender, he has finished on the podium here before and will like the rough weather. He was the only one willing to risk it at Flèche and here we could see an aggressive DSM leader once again, who on his best legs can definitely be up there close to the best.
AG2R - Benoît Cosnefroy would ordinarily be a leader but illness came at the wrong time and makes it difficult for him to perform. However the team comes in as well with Ben O'Connor, but perhaps most importantly Aurélien Paret-Peintre who has been building good form at the Tour of the Alps.
Alexey Lutsenko - Lutsenko was very strong at the Giro di Sicilia and Amstel Gold Race, but disappointing at Flèche Wallone. However I believe he will bounce back, Liège is a race that suits him well and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in the front.
Regarding some more outsiders we can still find quality riders. David Gaudu, Valentin Madouas, Tobias Johannessen, Quinten Hermans, Soren Kragh Andersen, Rui Costa, Lorenzo Rota, Maxim van Gils, Andreas Kron, Warren Barguil, Valentin Ferron and Roger Adrià could fight for a good result, on their best day some of them even for a podium.
Prediction Liège-Bastogne-Liége 2023:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel
** Mattias Skjelmose, Mikel Landa, Aleksandr Vlasov
* Giulio Ciccone, Pello Bilbao, Michael Woods, Victor Lafay, Ion Izagirre, Tom Pidcock, Sergio Higuita, Tiesj Benoot, Enric Mas, Romain Bardet
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
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