PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 16 - Can Isaac del Toro survive 4700 meters of climbing and the hardest summit finish in pink?

The Corsa Rosa is the first Grand Tour of the season and this year it will include a start in a nation that will for the first time in it's history host a Grand Tour, Albania; and also several mountain stages in it's second half whilst the first half will feature some tricky stages including one that goes through a lot of the Strade Bianche course. We preview stage 16.

Stage 16, the first day of the final week, will be brutal. Five categorized climbs but the race should really explode on the final ascent to San Valentino, 17 kilometers long at 6.5%. There will be lots of climbing and it's a day for the pure climbers to make the difference.

The first kilometers of the over 200-kilometer long day is flat, but the last two thirds are crazy difficult, and after the last rest day there may be some more riders struggling. A bad day here can spell the end of the GC aspirations for any rider, no exceptions. 4700 meters of climbing...

12.9Km at 4.9% (130Km to go), 10.1Km at 7.5% (88Km to go) and then two climbs that are a brutality, and both can see serious GC differences depending on where the race blows up. The first of which is Santa Barbara which is 12.7 kilometers at 8.3%, a constantly steep climb that is very long. It ends with only 34 kilometers to go and the descent is steep and very technical which can also see differences.

There is virtually no space between the two ascents, and so the end of the descent is the start of the final climb to Brentonico. This will also be hard enough for serious differences, averaging 6% for 18 kilometers, and this is with two downhill sections throughout the ascent. There are several kilometers in the final half of the climb averaging 9% and this will absolutely be enough for big race-deciding attacks.

The riders will really have no luck, as the forecast points towards rain falling down on them to begin the final week of racing. The day is very hard as it is on paper, but the wet descents will add risk, tension and make the top of all climbs harder as everyone will fight for positioning even more towards the descents. This day can crush the GC ambitions of someone who isn't at their very best.

UAE - The big question of the day, but the reality is that it isn't as much of a question as stage 15. There it was clear, everyone stays as a block, Juan Ayuso stays with the block and Del Toro covers attacks. Here it is a draining high mountain stage with a brutal summit finish where most riders will look to perform - not before the final climb. So they will have to go to their limit, in terrain where big gaps can be created, but it won't be down to tactics but instead the legs. Isaac Del Toro doesn't have the upper hand here I would say, but if he is as fresh as he's been so far, his pink jersey lead may grow or at worst remain as it is.

GC Fight - There will be days where you can attack from far but I wouldn't say this will be one of them. Richard Carapaz does not have a team to do so either so he will hope to make the difference in San Valentino. Derek Gee is happy with 5th so no reason to take risks and I would say the same of Simon Yates; Bahrain and INEOS follow with Damiano Caruso and Antonio Tiberi; Egan Bernal and Thymen Arensman respectively. They can certainly put pressure, but I think they'd rather keeps things as they are and then try to use their numbers to attack stage 17 instead.

There is then a big question that lies with Primoz Roglic, 10th in the GC right now. I think he will look better, stage 15 was really the only day where he didn't look sharp. But the stage is not well suited to his abilities, so even a stronger Roglic will not be able to make a difference here, most likely try to limit losses.

The breakaway can succeed on this day, but honestly it will be hard, as there is a lot of very difficult terrain where the GC men will go all-out. This means only a very strong and in-form climber can win on such a day, of which there are not many outside the Top15 - Specially with the flat start not providing a clear moment for the climbers to attack. I would say Giulio Pellizzari may get freedom to already do so and try to take advantage of his freedom; Nicolas Prodhomme, Nairo Quintana, Louis Meintjes, Romain Bardet, Max Poole, Wout Poels, Chris Harper, Georg Steinhauser, Luke Plapp, Filippo Zana and Lorenzo Fortunato are also men to consider.

*** Isaac del Toro, Juan Ayuso
** Richard Carapaz, Giulio Pellizzari, Wout Poels
* Simon Yates, Egan Bernal, Primoz Roglic, Thymen Arensman, Antonio Tiberi, Damiano Caruso, Derek Gee, Primoz Roglic, Nicolas Prodhomme, Chris Harper, Georg Steinhauser, Luke Plapp, Lorenzo Fortunato, Filippo Zana

Pick: Isaac del Toro

How: Solo win