PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 11 - Breakaway bingo... But can we expect fireworks on brutal San Pellegrino climb?

The Corsa Rosa is the first Grand Tour of the season and this year it will include a start in a nation that will for the first time in it's history host a Grand Tour, Albania; and also several mountain stages in it's second half whilst the first half will feature some tricky stages including one that goes through a lot of the Strade Bianche course. We preview stage 11.

Stage 11 is a very tricky one, it can be for the GC men but it depends on their mentality. Right after the time-trial, there may be risks taken here. 3800 meters of climbing, another tricky hilly day that can turn into more with the right set of conditions.

The stage features a brutal ascent early on of the San Pellegrino in Alpe which is over 14 kilometers long at 8%, one of the hardest in the race. But if the trigger isn't pulled, then likely we have a day for the breakaway whilst the GC riders will be marking each other in the hilly finale into Castelnuovo Ne Monti.

11Km at 4.9% (39Km to go), 1.4Km at 5% (30Km to go) and 3Km at 5% (24Km to go) will set things up further, potentially in the fight for the stage win if it happens in the breakaway; but if it's in the peloton then it will be further fatigue building ahead of the final ascent.

It's not a very difficult one, but at the end of such a difficult day it won't be as easy as it looks like. 5.8 kilometers at 5.8% and it will end with a few kilometers to go. Most of the final 6 kilometers remaining on the stage are downhill and technical, but there is an uphill ramp to the line where we can still see a thrilling sprint.

We might have some more rain and this may make it a very treacherous and tense day. This would certainly favour the breakaway even more, that already have the initial advantage over the fact that thus far in this Giro there have not been attacks in the stages with long climbs and we certainly have a conservative peloton on our hands.

UAE is the only team that have the depth to attack this stage, and with four GC contenders one could argue that they would benefit from doing so - specially with a fragile BORA that may not be able to respond to such moves. But the team seems happy with it's current situation and don't want to risk losing it. Likely, it will be a day where most GC riders will try to spend as least as possible. Roglic and BORA certainly don't have the team to attack from a distance and the last climb simply isn't hard enough to make differences. Even if some outsiders attack, only minor seconds can be expected between some GC riders.

The true battle on the day will be to get in the day's breakaway, which will be hard due to the start's flat nature. There is a small hilltop, but if a group doesn't go up the road there, it may have to wait until the first serious climb after 60 kilometers - as we've seen similar on stage 8. This is a day most will know is for the front group to battle (no sprinter can survive this route behind and no GC team is likely to try and control the gaps), and besides that, the climbs' difficulty do mean that GC teams can also benefit from having riders in the front group, so essentially everyone will want to be there.

Regarding the fight for the stage win in that scenario, we can expect a bit of chaos as was the case on stage 8. The flat start means we may have a very odd group with different kinds of riders. The attacks won't come on the main climb, but it's so hard that anyone who isn't a strong climber will be completely drained there. Then some rolling climbs, which allow for tactics to thrive over legs, but ultimately it may come down to who has the best tactics and feeling on this day specifically - which may not influenced by what we've seen so far this race.

*** Tom Pidcock, Mathias Vacek, Pello Bilbao
** Max Poole, Wout Poels, Marco Frigo, Wilco Kelderman
* Primoz Roglic, Isaac del Toro, Juan Ayuso, Giulio Ciccone, Einer Rubio, Lorenzo Fortunato, Nicolas Prodhomme, Kevin Geniets, Mattia Cattaneo, Romain Bardet, Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen, Georg Steinhauser

Pick: Pello Bilbao

How: Solo victory from the breakaway