Stage 4 of the Giro d'Italia is another day that is expected to finish in a bunch sprint but after today's action in the finale, the fast men will have to fear Tadej Pogacar who can take advantage of a late hilltop to try and make the difference once again. We preview the fourth day of racing.
Stage 4 will take the riders in the Ligurian region. I call this a mini Milano-Sanremo and with very good reason. Not only is the profile almost identical to the Italian monument, but the final kilometers follow roads familiar to the peloton, and the finale in Andora takes place inbetween two of the 'Tre Capi'.
This is a 187-kilometer day on the bike, not too big but not short either. The start takes place in Acqui Terme at 157 meters of altitude and the riders will go above 1000 meters in the first two hours of racing. Right after the intermediate sprint comes the sole climb of the day: Colle del Melogno which is 6.8 kilometers a 5%. However, this will not likely have much effect on the stage, but only adding some fatigue.
The riders descend into the coast and then head into Andora. They will climb, right before the finish, a famous ascent of Milano-Sanremo: Capo Mele. The ascent is a big-ring climb, it's 1.8 kilometers long at 4.4% and summit with 2.5 kilometers to go. An almost identical finale to the previous day, the climb may see attacks but most likely just a thinning down of the front of the peloton.
Only this time the approach to the finish is not flat, but very fast and downhill. Through a very fast and non-technical descent, the peloton will find itself racing at extremely high speed into the final 750 meters which will be flat and straightforward all the way into the finish line for what should be a dramatic bunch sprint.
The Weather
Some slight eastern breeze, which could make for a tailwind in the final section of the stage and the final sprint. However it shouldn't be strong enough to make much difference. There could be some rain however, which will increase tension throughout the day and in the run-up to the sprint as well.
The Favourites
Jonathan Milan - I won't go easy on Milan, his positioning skills today were horrendous and cost him a victory that would've otherwise been easy. A look at the final kilometer with attention show him in the wind almost the entire time and this was despite having two teammates. Lidl-Trek certainly do have a good leadout and experienced men with him but he needs to improve. Power in itself won't bring him the win, and in such a fast finale specially he will spend even more energy before the sprint if he doesn't fix it. If he does, I think he will win.
Tim Merlier - Merlier almost always wins the first bunch sprint of the race he is in. Almost tradition at this point and he fulfilled it. However it's not a strike of luck, the Soudal - Quick-Step ride packs a lot of power and thrives in these flat sprints. There is nothing to argue against him, he just has to repeat what he did today and he could take win number two of the week.
With the exception of Fabio Jakobsen, all sprinters were there and thereabouts in today's final sprint. This is great news for the spectacle over the comin days as it can't really be said that anyone really missed out on the action. We've got two riders that I expected to be the main favourites for the day and they finished first and second, so I will expect them to be the big favourites once again - just as much, as the downhill finale will suit the absolute powerhouses such as them.
And with no particular order plenty riders will all have opportunities. Kaden Groves, Olav Kooij and Phil Bauhaus are riders who I would pay particular attention to in such a finale that should happen under very high speeds. The heavy sprinters will enjoy this, whilst others such as Caleb Ewan, Laurence Pithie or Alberto Dainese may be a little hampered.
We've got today's third placed Biniam Girmay and surprise fourth Jenthe Biermans; Danny van Poppel, Tobias Lund Andresen, Fernando Gaviria, Ethan Vernon, Andrea Vendrame, Max Kanter, Juan Sebastián Molano and Stanislaw Aniolkowski once again as options.
And what if an attack does succeed this time around? Tadej Pogacar certainly surprised, sprinter teams and puncheurs will pay more attention to him this time around, but simultaneously the final kilometers are downhill, much faster and harder to bring someone back. He will certainly be a threat. Also eye riders such as Filippo Ganna, Jhonatan Narváez, Julian Alaphilippe, Christophe Laporte and Max Schachmann, they certainly fit the type who can make a dangerous attack here.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 4:
*** Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier
** Biniam Girmay, Phil Bauhaus, Olav Kooij
* Kaden Groves, Caleb Ewan, Laurence Pithie, Danny van Poppel, Tobias Lund Andresen, Max Kanter, Tadej Pogacar, Filippo Ganna, Jhonatan Narváez
Pick: Tim Merlier
Regione Piemonte will host the Grande Partenza of the Giro d'Italia 2024! Opening stage on 4 May with start in Venaria Reale. La Regione Piemonte ospiterà la Grande Partenza 2024! Si parte il 4 maggio da Venaria Reale. 👇Thread 👇 #Giroditalia #GrandePartenza @regionepiemonte
