Stage 16 of the Giro d'Italia is another incredibly hard day. We preview a stage with over 4000 meters of climbing, 200 kilometers rain and multiple climbs including a summit finish. Tadej Pogacar starts the day in the lead of the Giro on the day that it goes up the mythical Passo dello Stelvio's slopes.
The 16th stage kickstarts the third week and in what way. The start in Livigno is very explosive with two small ascents right from the starting line. The grupetto will start to form itself right away, and riders not only have 207 kilometers on the menu, but they will also need to be on the rollers before the start as the climbers will try to break away right away.
Originally, the riders were going to climb the Passo dello Stelvio, but bad weather and avalanche risk made this impossible. The alternative however is very simple as the riders go almost all the way to the summit. Instead, they turn in the Umbrailpass, but the climb is still 16.7 kilometers at 7.2% with the summit at over 2500 meters of altitude. But it's summit comes with a whole 157 kilometers to the finish.
The riders then go down a very cold, very long and very technical descent. Flying down the Stelvio is not a common sight, but it will be the case here. After the descent the riders keep going down actually. The riders will lose a whole unbelievable 2300 meters in altitude, before tackling another set of climbs where the day should be decided.
Incredibly, the Stelvio is not the longest climb of the day. This will instead be the Passo Pinei. This ascent is 23.3 kilometers at 4.7%. The first 7.2 kilometers average 7.2%, they are hard but it's still rather far from the finish to make differences. A long false-flat section will follow. The final section of the climb is 5.5 kilometers also at 7.2%, it has a 15% ramp. On this section yes, attacks can absolutely happen, at this point in the day few riders will have the legs to push a higher gear. The climb ends with 12 kilometers to go.
But as the previous day of racing, the final ascent is yet to come and will be smaller, and steeper. The climb to Monte Pana is 6.5 kilometers long at 6.2%. The final 2 kilometers average 12%, an incredibly steep finale to a brutal day on the bike; many riders may in fact just wait for this location. It can, despite being short, make serious differences.
The Weather
The riders find a new challenge. The wind should not be present but the rain will. It is expected to be stronger towards the end of the stage if it is to come - high chances - and it will be a difficult obstacle in a day with over 200 kilometers in the mountains. Long descents and low temperatures risk getting the riders sick but also some may not react well to the weather conditions.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - The daily question. What does Tadej Pogacar want? If there was any doubt, he ended them on stage 15 with a performance miles ahead of the rest. If he wants to win the stage, UAE can work for it and do it. But with four under the blanket now, and the triumph on what he called the queen stage, I think they will once again go into conservative mode. The final climbs are not so hard, he wouldn't be able to make the difference so easily, and frankly he has no need of winning time. I think UAE will just ride within themselves and let the breakaway fight for the win.
GC Fight - However, this may open things up behind. If UAE do not want to control, GC outsiders may try to take advantage and join the breakaway; and then count on their rival teams to just depend on UAE. This may create a battle for the other positions which in reality is what's been happening from the start, Pogacar was never being put under pressure by anyone else.
Geraint Thomas and Daniel Martínez are very evenly matched. Martínez showed intent on attacking today but he is not above his main rival at the moment under normal circumstances. BORA also do not have the team to attack, and so he will likely wait until the final climb and final ramps to try and do something, whilst Thomas also does not need to attack and has Thymen Arensman in a good position to support him - whilst also fighting for the Top5.
It's hard to combat this hierarchy, Ben O'Connor has a strong team but he's not showing the legs to make the difference and enter the podium just yet. He can however, it's not out of the picture. Antonio Tiberi also may struggle, and as he sits fifth now he may try to conserve that already good result.
Romain Bardet, who is seventh, is the main rider who can attack. DSM do not have a team to do this so he has to wait, but he seems back to his best form finally and with rain and long distances to tackle, he will be in his element. He could attack on the penultimate climb as he did today, and certainly he can make gains and hope to climb to the Top5 already on a good day. Einer Rubio and Jan Hirt also have reasons to try and attack if the pace is not constant among the GC riders, as they just entered the Top10 with strong rides. Filippo Zana probably in for a defensive stage, a Top10 would already be a success.
Michael Storer, Davide Piganzoli and Domenico Pozzovivo could all very well benefit from a breakaway, this seems like a day that could end in a breakaway win. I very much do believe in that, and the names to fight for the win should pretty much be the same as the ones from Livigno because only one rider - Alex Baudin - gained freedom whilst all others managed to get in front. A 50-rider breakaway actually, but I don't expect the same to happen this time around.
Nairo Quintana is a big card to play, he will have altitude, long climbs... It's not as well suited as today but he certainly seems to have the legs to make the difference. He and Valentin Paret-Peintre look to be the best climbers that are out of the GC fight. To the equation we can add Damiano Caruso who is on rising form, Georg Steinhauer, Attila Valter, Simon Geschke, Nicola Conci, Jan Tratnik and Giulio Pellizzari.
Prediction Giro d'Italia 2024 stage 16:
*** Nairo Quintana, Valentin Paret-Peintre
** Tadej Pogacar, Georg Steinhauser
* Geraint Thomas, Daniel Martínez, Romain Bardet, Michael Storer, Davide Piganzoli, Damiano Caruso, Simon Geschke, Nicola Conci, Jan Tratnik
Pick: Nairo Quintana
Regione Piemonte will host the Grande Partenza of the Giro d'Italia 2024! Opening stage on 4 May with start in Venaria Reale. La Regione Piemonte ospiterà la Grande Partenza 2024! Si parte il 4 maggio da Venaria Reale. 👇Thread 👇 #Giroditalia #GrandePartenza @regionepiemonte
