PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 5 - Rain and wind make sprint day a lot harder and more dangerous

Preview. The 2023 Giro d'Italia sees another tricky day on stage 5 as the sprinters must gear up to battle for the win, however, the day will be packed with small climbs early in the day which can make it quite hard,

The 5th stage of the Giro d'Italia should be a day for the sprinters, or perhaps one suited to the breakaway as a hilly day, with the start and finish taking place in Atripalda and Salerno specifically. What exactly will happen is hard to predict nd depends on the breakaway of the day, there is a total of 2500 meters of climbing in the 171 kilometers and they are almost exclusively in the first two thirds of the stage.

Estimated start and finish times for Giro d'Italia stage 5: 12:40-17:15CET

Certainly the sprinter teams will want to thoroughly control the start of the stage, and carry a pace that never allows the gap to grow much. That won't be easy however, there is a 3.9 kilometers ascent at over 7% in the opening kilometers of the day. However the situation doesn't get easier throughout, with several small ascents and a few descents, but no true flat roads where riders can relax.

With 57 kilometers to go the riders end their final categorized climb of the day, it is almost 3 kilometers long at 8%, it's in no way an easy climb and one where if the pace is pushed gaps can appear, sprinters can be put under serious difficulties. There is another small hilltop right after the summit, it's not terrain where those dropped can easily return to the peloton, with just over an hour of racing remaining the pace will also certainly be high.

The riders reach 448 meters of altitude at the end of that hilltop, and then, without any major descent, come down to sea level with the finish line at only 4 meters of altitude. This is a clear sign that the speed will be quite high in approach to the finish.

The riders reach the Tirreno sea coast however and the final 15 kilometers will be pan-flat and by the sea. Exposed, fast, but should see a bunch sprint decide the outcome. The riders head into Salerno and there will be no obstacles. The riders follow the same road all the way into the finish near the city center, there is nothing relevant to mention regarding this sprint, it is as "simple" as it looks on profile.

The Weather

Meaningful southwestern wind and rain. It could be a pleasant day on the bike with a view of a very scenic area but it will instead be a gruesome day on the bike. Also a treacherous one, the descents will be very technical and GC riders will swarm the front towards the top of the climbs. The teams will lose riders towards the flat finale and some sprinters are also likely to miss out. It's going to be a hard day to control even for Trek and Jayco.

The Favourites

Mads Pedersen - Pedersen struggled on stage 3 but the same shouldn't happen here as the climbs are considerably further way from the finish. Trek will have interest in a high pace and splits, and to work the exact way they have already - but with a different outcome. The flat finale will favour him over Matthews.

Michael Matthews - The Australian however will be motivated and without the weight on his shoulders. Jayco should have the interest to push the pace once again it's already proven a successful tactic, tomorrow they will likely put themselves in front again, the pan-flat finale won't be ideal for the Australian but if he can split the amount of rivals to half he'll stand better chances.

Kaden Groves - Groves is in good form, he was present and sprinted on stage 3, showing his climbing legs once again. This will make him quite dangerous, if the pace is hard his leadout may be dropped, but he's got the pure speed to take a day such as this.

Some others could prove to be allies, or have their teams pushing the pace in the ascents. Filippo Fiorelli, Andrea Vendrame and today's breakaway feature Vincenzo Albanese could be useful for those who can climb. Magnus Cort Nielsen isn't in his best form - once again - but can be considered if their cards are played right.

As for the pure sprinters they will first and foremost hope for a modest breakaway. If that is the case the pace shouldn't be high over the climbs and it should all come down to a bunch sprint. Pascal Ackermann, Simone Consonni, Jonathan Milan, Mark Cavendish, Alberto Dainese, Marius Mayrhofer, Niccolò Bonifazio, Arne Marit, Jake Stewart and David Dekker will all hope for that, and some of those teams could try to block things up in the first kilometers.

But the breakaway stands good chances. The weather absolutely favours an early move, but of course it will still be a very difficult task, specially as the last kilometers are pan-flat and not technical. Get good engines in front and it can be balanced out however, the likes of Ben Healy or Groupama-FDJ duo Stefan Küng and Bruno Armirail could prove deadly in such terrain.

Samuele Battistella, Simone Velasco, Alberto Bettiol, Stefan De Bod, Sven Erik Bystom, Simon Clarke and UAE trio of Davide Formolo, Diego Ulissi and Alessandro Covi will all need to be taken into consideration.

Prediction Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 5:

*** Mads Pedersen, Kaden Groves
** Michael Matthews
* Andrea Vendrame, Vincenzo Albanese, Pascal Ackermann, Fernando Gaviria, Ben Healy, Stefan Küng, Bruno Armirail

Pick: Kaden Groves