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PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 16 - Thomas, Roglic and Almeida's likely first high-mountain battle
CyclingTuesday, 23 May 2023 at 08:45
Preview. The first day of the final week of racing. The contenders for the pink jersey saved themselves for this period, the brutal 16th stage of the Giro d'Italia could finally see the first thrilling day of high-mountain action.
The final week of the Giro d'Italia begins with what will be another high mountain stage and summit finish. This will be another decisive day at the Giro d'Italia. It will be one of the hardest days of the race, and the finish at Monte Bondone on the outskirts of Trento will be another one where serious differences can be done.
Estimated start and finish times for Giro d'Italia stage 16: 10:50-17:15CET
Stage 16: Sabbio Chiese - Monte Bondone, 200.5Km
The first 57 kilometers will mostly be flat. It isn't the first day where the start should be very friendly, and then an absurd amount of climbing follows in a short distance. Almost 5000 meters of climbing will be ridden in 140 kilometers. A small hilltop opens things up, but the first serious ascent is the Passo Santa Barbara.
This climb is 12.8 kilometers at 8.2%, a whole Alpe d'Huez essentially, but only the first of five climbs. This ends with 123 kilometers to go, and the Passo Bordala quickly follows with 4.6 kilometers at 7%. An incredibly technical descent follows but the race should calm down afterwards.
Passo Santa Barbara: 12.8Km; 8.2%; 123Km to go
The peloton rides up the climb to Matassone, which is hard, but in context it is relatively gentle. It summits with 83 kilometers to go and features 11.4 kilometers at 5.6%, but does feature a flat section which lowers the average, it is generally quite steeper. A descent with a few sharp hilltops follow before the ascent to Serrada.
This ascent is 17.5 kilometers at 5.5%. It ends with 46 kilometers to go, it's a long climb with 17.5 kilometers at over 5% but it'll be a warm-up for the finale. This is a tough climb where preparations will be made towards the final hour of racing.
Serrada: 17.5Km; 5.5%; 46Km to go
That final hour of racing will be fully within the Monte Bondone. It's 22.7 kilometers in total at 6.4%, split into a few different sections. The first 3 kilometers average 9%, and then the climb gets a bit more gentle. Most likely the riders will wait for the final 8 kilometers which average 8%. The final couple kilometers are a bit more gentle, but throughout several kilometers the grade is at a steady 9%.
It's a brutal climb, a day for the diesel engines and a climb just for that. Don't expect sharp attacks, but you can expect big differences - if the riders choose to attack, that is.
Monte Bondone: 22.5Km; 6.4%
The Weather
Map Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 16
Sun and no wind to mention, finally the riders can completely relax when it comes to having a sunny day.
The Favourites
Geraint Thomas - INEOS won't change their strategy. With Groupama in pink they're surely hoping to save themselves a bit for the final climb. There De Plus and Arensman will be able to set a high and consistent pace high in the mountain. The goal will be for no time loss, I argue it's a good climb for Thomas and he can surely achieve that, maybe even attack himself.
Primoz Roglic - Now there are no excuses, I hope! It is clear Jumbo has been playing the long game all along, with the tiny gaps existent Roglic has purposefully not attacked the race so as to not take the pink jersey and added media work. This is the final week now and it's a brutal mountain stage, the final time-trial doesn't benefit neither of the three so it's in the climbs the differences have to be made. i wouldn't argue this is an ideal day for Roglic but with a strong Sepp Kuss alongside and good form clear, he is likely to give it a go.
João Almeida - Almeida has the form, his attack on stage 15 also shown how he wants to create the differences. I don't know if UAE can set up any attack, but regardless of that INEOS and Jumbo will make for a tough pace in the final ascent. Only just over 20 seconds behind his two rivals, he is also within close range of the pink jersey.
The fight for the pink jersey will be alive, since Bruno Armirail is unlikely to keep it. I reckon he'll put up a good fight however, he could hang on to the Top10 for the time being. Andreas Leknessund has so far also put in a brilliant race, he will want to remain in the fifth place he's currently got, both will want the race as conservative as possible.
On the opposite Hugh Carthy will want an attacked race as his current 12th place doesn't portray his climbing capacity. Damiano Caruso, Lennard Kämna and Eddie Dunbar will remain watching what happen, they may make moves but most likely INEOS and Jumbo will pace until the GC group blows up to bits.
For the breakaway to succeed, as was the case in stage 13, it needs to be quite a strong climber to take it, it's not one where riders can luck out. Jay Vine, Santiago Buitrago, Ilan van Wilder, Jefferson Cepeda and Lorenzo Fortunato will be the clear men to watch - Buitrago and van Wilder can benefit if INEOS don't want to hit the front of the peloton for pink jersey reasons.
Of course, some riders seem to be hitting high day after day, the likes of Ben Healy and Derek Gee who are in terrific form could also be in contention for a strong result, or Einer Rubio once again if he decides to hit the front. Groupama may also attack with Pinot and then try to have him climb up the GC whilst they don't work behind, could be a good strategy since INEOS handed up the lead in order to try and avoid to be at the head of the peloton.
Prediction Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 16:
*** Geraint Thomas, Primoz Rogic, João Almeida
** Ilan van Wilder, Jefferson Cepeda
* Damiano Caruso, Hugh Carthy, Eddie Dunbar, Jay Vine, Santiago Buitrago, Lorenzo Fortunato, Ben Healy, Einer Rubio, Thibaut Pinot
** Ilan van Wilder, Jefferson Cepeda
* Damiano Caruso, Hugh Carthy, Eddie Dunbar, Jay Vine, Santiago Buitrago, Lorenzo Fortunato, Ben Healy, Einer Rubio, Thibaut Pinot
Pick: Primoz Roglic
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