PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 15 - Mountain day in Lombardia likely breeding ground for climber breakaway

Preview. Stage 15 of the Giro d'Italia will be a day in the mountains, with several ascents throughout the day in Lombardia which could see another breakaway succeed and also test the new race leader Bruno Armirail.

The route of the 15th stage of the Giro d'Italia goes through some of the road of Il Lombardia. The climbs of Valico di Valcava, Selvino and Valpiana will be important on the day, and will make the selections for the win. The will also Colle Aperto, a short hilltop to be ridden before the finish in the scenic city where the decisive attack can be made. It's a day in Lombardia with 4000 meters of climbing to end the second week.

Estimated start and finish times for Giro d'Italia stage 15: 11:45-17:15CET

The start of the day features a few small ascents before reaching the Valico di Valcava. This is a climb known for it's presence at Il Lombardia. It's early in the day to cause much difference, but a breakaway can succeed in the day and here there is a clear selection point where those who can't fight for the win will be exposed, it's a very tough climb.

Two climbs will follow to put in more damage. Selvino (11.3Km; 5.5%; 98Km to go) and Miragolo San Salvatore (5.2Km; 6.9%; 85Km to go). The riders pass through the finish with 55 kilometers to go, riding for the first time the final cobbled hilltop. It will be a recon, but the decision of the stage will only be made later.

The most important ascent should certainy be Roncola Alta. It's 10 kilometers at 6.7% and summits with 31 kilometers to go. It features gradients up to 10% in it's middle and is where the climbers will look to make the difference. In the peloton I expect some conservative racing, but the climb (and day) is hard enough to try something.

The descent will be quite technical however and leave the riders with around 15 kilometers of racing. It's a dangerous day when it comes to the possibility of tactical moves. The riders head towards Bergamo for the finale of the stage, passing through the old town beforehand. That is where the riders find the hilltop, it's only 1.3 kilometers at 7.3%, but do feature some cobblestones and a 15% ramp. It's summit comes with only 3.4 kilometers to go, it's all downhill into the finish.

The Weather

It seems as if the sun will come out! This will be of a great pleasure to the peloton. Could be another justification for conservative riding, the riders will want to enjoy their first day in the sunshine in a while!

The Favourites

This is most likely a day for the breakaway to succeed once again. If stage 13 did not see any major attack for the pink jersey here there should be more of the same. Although the lead is now on the shoulders of Bruno Armirail, when it comes to the big hitters the situation hasn't changed much. Geraint Thomas certainly won't attack as INEOS seemed to purposefully give the jersey away.

If the race is attacked Armirail will be dropped, in that case I don't think either Primoz Roglic or João Almeida want to take the lead yet, and instead keep the Welshman as the first placed GC rider to, in a way, keep INEOS from attacking - which they have not done, despite being since the start of the race the team with most GC depth. Attacks could come from some other riders, from the likes of Hugh Carthy and Santiago Buitrago for example who'd like to move up the GC and don't want to waste a climbing day, but I reckon the final ascents aren't difficult enough to cause damage and if anything it'd be the descent creating differences.

The GC guys are eyeing the third week, it's become clear, and stage 16 will finally kick off the high mountain action. Here, the rolling start will see a strong group go up the road, Groupama won't have the legs - and likely the interest either - to control the race intensely, no GC teams will want to be working. Ilan van Wilder, Patrick Konrad, Einer Rubio and Jack Haig could attack in search of climbing up the GC, Hugh Carthy wouldn't be shy of trying too I reckon.

UAE Team Emirates have cards to play in this stage, GC is unlikely to blow up, both Jay Vine and Brandon McNulty will likely be on the attack early on in search of what they have both hunted on quite a few occasions combined. Jefferson Cepeda and Lorenzo Fortunato have shown great climbing legs and will have all the freedom to make moves they will be strong contenders, and Ben Healy will be an interesting outsider as he will certainly give it a go too.

Prediction Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 15:

*** Jay Vine, Ilan van Wilder
** Jefferson Cepeda, Lorenzo Fortunato, Einer Rubio
* Primoz Roglic, Geraint Thomas, João Almeida, Hugh Carthy, Patrick Konrad, Lennard Kämna

Pick: Ilan van Wilder