“Pogacar can reach the summit with a one-minute gap”: Rasmussen doubts compatriot Vingegaard on the Tourmalet

Former pro Michael Rasmussen believes the Tour de France battle could take a decisive twist very soon, specifically on stage six when the race hits the Pyrenees. In that scenario, he sees scope for Tadej Pogacar to open significant gaps on Jonas Vingegaard.

The day starts in Pau, packs around 4,100 metres of elevation, and concentrates its main difficulties in the final 80 kilometres. First comes the Col d’Aspin, before tackling the Col du Tourmalet, a 17-kilometre climb at 7.3% average that rises above 2,000 metres. A similar stage to the Cauterets finale in 2023, where Vingegaard attacked from far and tried to cement the GC, but was matched and then counter-attacked by the Slovenian who took back time.

Rasmussen views this point as pivotal for the race’s development. “There’s a real risk the race is decided here,” he told Viaplay, stressing the Tourmalet’s potential as a breaking point.

The Dane even floats a long-range attack mid-climb. “They can make the move five kilometres from the top of the Tourmalet,” he explained, suggesting Pogacar’s team could lift the pace before the summit. If the World Champions shows his best level already from an early point in the race, he could well anticipate and try to gain time before Vingegaard's recovery ability begins to balance things out as has happened in the past.

The first days at the Tour will provide accurate insight into the form of both riders and how they may fare in the first high mountain stage. But whilst it comes early on, the Dane believes the Col du Tourmalet may come as a decisive point in the entire three weeks.

In his view, that move could translate into meaningful gaps on the upper slopes. “He could crest the summit with a one-minute lead over Vingegaard,” Rasmussen added, placing the Slovenian ahead at the top if the pace is high enough.

The former rider also warns what could happen if the group shatters on the climb. “The gap could grow to two minutes before the finish,” he noted, pointing out the advantage could widen between the summit, the descent, and the run-in.

Rasmussen also recalls recent editions, where Pogacar has struck early in the race, while Visma | Lease a Bike have tried to respond by hardening the contest on varied terrain without definitive success.