OPINION - Jonas Vingegaard is likely going to win the 2026 Giro d'Italia; and this is how the Top10 could look like

The 2026 Giro d'Italia is starting this Friday in Bulgaria and we have a list of riders who will fight for the overall classification throughout the three weeks. Crashes, illnesses and bad days will throw some riders out of the mix; but this is how I believe the Top10 of the Corsa Rosa will look like.

The GC fight is going to be quite modest in comparison to many recent Grand Tours, with a great concentration of riders placing all their chips into the Tour de France. Tadej Pogacar, Isaac del Toro, Paul Seixas, Remco Evenepoel, Florian Lipowitz, Oscar Onley... The list goes on and on.

If we did not have Jonas Vingegaard at the start of the Giro, I would dare to say this would be perhaps the most open edition in years. But it might still be. Yes, Jonas Vingegaard is the man to beat, but the Giro always provides plenty of obstacles that the other Grand Tours do not.

Long mountain stages, bad weather and plenty of breakaway days can change the outcome of the GC fight completely overnight. Guessing a Top10 is always near impossible, but if we were to remove bad luck from the equation, this is how I believe the Top10 of the Giro could look like.

For the victory, I believe we'll see Jonas Vingegaard succeed in this Giro. Everything points to that, and statistically speaking, it will be very difficult to beat him unless there's bad luck involved – with crashes or illnesses. Visma do not have their best team here, but that is not overly important when the gap between first and second best climber is very big. I believe that's what we have in this case. The Dane will be very motivated to win this, and two of his main rivals are not starting the race. It is not the most exciting statement, but he should have a rather secure control of the fight for the pink jersey.

I am not afraid of putting the Italian in second place for this Giro, I think it makes full sense. Perhaps I sense he is still rather underated for his true abilities, taking into consideration how much the discourse revolves around him and Jai Hindley co-leading this Giro for BORA. Pellizzari is 100% the right choice, the Hindley card helps shrug pressure off of him, let's say. Last year on stage 16 he was the best climber, he would've already been in the fight for the podium then if he wasn't on domestique duties for Primoz Roglic. One year stronger, wiser and with more experience as a pure leader; the winner of the Tour of the Alps has given all the signs he needs to show that he is ready for his first Grand Tour podium.

The Tudor rider is also highly underated, but this is more regarding the lack of knowledge regarding his story. He crashed four times during last year's Giro, and that is why his performance was sub-par in comparison to his incredible Tour of the Alps where he climbed like a maniac. Then he rode to third at Il Lombardia... He's got all the right qualities to thrive in the Alps, he just needs luck to be on his side. But with the amount of climbers missing in this race, he is exactly the kind of rider who can take advantage of the situation to be on the final podium, perhaps even in the battle for second place as he looks to be timing his form better this spring.

The Dutchman was very strong at the Tour of the Alps, and that gives more assurance that he can start the Giro well. Usually his issue is the first week of a Grand Tour, an uncommon problem for the specialists. But in the Alps he looked on fire and if he can avoid mishaps in the first week, in the mountains he has the legs to make it onto the podium. A specialist in the long climbs and third-week, he has everything to lead INEOS Grenadiers in their journey to return to the podium of a Grand Tour.

The Decathlon rider, in my subjective view, fully deserves the podium. He is one of the riders I love seeing, one of the very last pure climbers remaining at the top of the cycling world, who attacks and has his team attack despite being below the 'aliens'. Gall enters this Giro perhaps with the opportunity of a lifetime, he can make it onto the podium. That is because only Jonas Vingegaard is present out of the big GC contenders, and his direct rivals for the podium don't have as much of an advantage in the time trials against him. The Austrian thrives in the long and brutal mountain stages and that's what he has at the Giro, which makes it surprising that only now is he putting it as his main priority.

The UAE rider is experiencing what is maybe his final opportunity to lead a Grand Tour with UAE. It wasn't a planned one either, he is benefitting from João Almeida's withdrawal. Now, don't expect a UAE pacing the peloton, or trying to do what they do with Tadej Pogacar. Yates is a podium contender at best here, but this would still be a great result for him. UAE will chase wins as a priority and the Briton will be racing in his classic steady climbing style, where having teammates does not often make a difference. His recent form and build-up do suggest, to me, that we may see the best version of the veteran.

It is not something that is often said, but Egan Bernal *is* back to his best. Only his best is a level that in 2021 was enough to win a Giro, nowadays it's not enough to make it onto the podium. Last year we saw a very good Bernal, aggressive and lighting up the race. I believe we will see the same this time around, taking into consideration his recent second place at the Tour of the Alps. Explosive stages, treacherous roads and altitude can see him thrive; but in the standard climbing ability he is a little behind some of his rivals. Still his role at INEOS will depend greatly on how Thymen Arensman does, but Bernal is a solid Top10 choice nevertheless.

There are no positions in the Top5 for everyone. I believe Santiago Buitrago has deposited a lot of focus onto this Giro d'Italia and he may come out of it in great form. He's been under the radar, and his support at Bahrain is not as flashy but very good for the team's ambitions. The Colombian is explosive, but in the high mountains he has to show his very best level to be in the mix for a Top5. Not impossible, but he does have to defy the odds.

The Canadian finished fourth last year but this time around the mission is slightly harder. Lidl-Trek is a complete team, but we get the sense that stage wins will be their priority. Jonathan Milan will chase the sprints and points jersey, Giulio Ciccone stage wins in the mountains and maybe the KOM jersey... Derek Gee was ill a few months ago and does not have his best form, which should cost him time on Blockhaus. Still I believe he can reach his best level, but I don't think he is going to be able to overturn the odds to beat the several direct rivals that usually climb at around the same level as him. With Lidl-Trek having so many stage-hunting cards, I believe he will pursue GC one way or another, that is his specialty as a consistent rider and he is one that fits in the lower Top10 for me.

The Australian rode a good Vuelta a España last year and overall had a very good level. He does not often find his best form, so he is a wildcard, and we don't truly know how he's coming into the Giro. On paper a co-leader with Giulio Pellizzari, but I don't think on the road we will see that for a long time. Still BORA have the men to keep this tactic up for a long time, Hindley tends to improve as the Grand Tours progress, and I have no reason to believe he won't have good form. Some work for Pellizzari whilst remaining close to the podium contenders is what I expect from him, a 10th place is quite logic unless he fully abandons his GC ambitions.