"He's going to hate the Valladolid TT" - Philippa York expects Felix Gall to lose considerable amount of time on Thursday

Those who feared the 2025 Vuelta a Espana will be a boring showcase of Jonas Vingegaard's dominance in the mountains must've found the first two weeks pleasantly surprising with their turn of events. On many occasions, the Dane wasn't able to create distance to his rivals and, at times, even seemed to struggle despite the fact that he wasn't dropped at any point of the race thus far. But losing to Joao Almeida on Alto de l'Angliru must've been a serious blow to Vingegaard's confidence in any case.

"The GC situation on the second rest day is looking interesting because nothing is decided for the win and if we accept that Vingegaard and Almeida are the two strongest and contending for the victory, then the fight for that last spot on the podium is equally close," Philippa York writes in her Cyclingnews blog, analyzing the first two weeks of Vuelta.

Whereas on the first two positions in GC are the names we would expect in advance, Tom Pidcock in third is quite a shock. The Q36.5 Pro Cycling star was most likely on the way to win the hilly stage in Bilbao, if not for protests neutralizing the finish. But even on the high mountains where he was anticipated to lose tons of time to the best - he was still within hand's reach, minimizing loses to seconds rather than minutes.

"I thought Tom Pidcock and the Angliru was going to be a climb too far – and too steep – but he did really well," York admitted to be one of many doubters including those from the ranks of his GC rivals, "probably better than his nearest challenger Jai Hindley expected."

She continues: "That would explain the Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe attack the next day when Pidcock was struggling on the climb to Lagos de Somiedo. Clearly Giulio Pellizzari is going to be sacrificed to aid Jai Hindley and that might be a problem for the Brit in the final week who doesn't have much help in the mountains. Still, he's playing with the established GC riders here and so far he's present and considered part of their group, and remains third overall."

The list of surprising GC contenders at this Vuelta doesn't end with Pidcock. That Torstein Traeen (Bahrain - Victorious) and Junior Lecerf (Soudal - Quick-Step) are closing off the top-10 is also not an expected development, especially since neither started as a designated GC leader of their respective teams. Just ahead of them in 7th overall, the 23-year-old Matthew Riccitello (Israel - Premier Tech) did not belong among the most often mentioned names before the race start either.

York is pleasantly impressed by the young generation of riders stepping up at the 2025 Vuelta: "Riccitello and Lecerf are in the top 10, with the former looking to be the more consistent of the two. Giulio Pellizzari is still strong but he might well lose his grip on the white jersey if the Pidcock/Hindley battle needs him to commit far from the finish."

Closing off the top-5 after two weeks is Austrian Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) who, despite some ups and downs, seems to be set to at the very least repeat his Tour de France result earlier this summer. And who knows, he could step into the podium battle if he plays his cards well.

"Gall has had a few moments where he's been exposed, strangely enjoying the steeper climbs more than the longer ones, so he's going to be blowing hot and cold for the final six stages," York estimates. The ex-pro expects Gall to lose considerable amount of time on Thursday. "He's going to hate the Valladolid TT."

The 27-kilometer test against the clock could shake up the standings before the queen finish on Bola del Mundo two days later. "Vingegaard will take time from Almeida there," York thinks. "However what it costs him could well be a factor on the days to come, which feature a lot of long climbs. Mountains that suit Almeida perfectly."

Finally, the analyst draws a conclusion from the first two weeks that the Dane is not invincible in Spain and could well be challenged for his red jersey by Almeida in the final week. "Far from being a Vingegaard certainty that many foresaw at the start in Turin two weeks ago, this Vuelta is not over," she concludes.