"Nine times out of ten it’s a lost day" - Former Sanremo winner Jasper Philipsen not overly positive on his chances, but confident on Mathieu van der Poel

In 2024, a super Jasper Philipsen was able to resist the ascent to the Poggio di Sanremo and then win the final sprint after Mathieu van der Poel closed down late moves. Two years later it's a completely different race in which he believes he stands little chance, but that is certainly not the case with Alpecin-Premier Tech as a whole.

“Because of the dominance of Tadej Pogacar, Milano-Sanremo has become a slightly different race. In the past, riders didn’t stand out like he and Mathieu van der Poel do now," Philipsen said in words to Wielerflits. "The fact they can really make the difference, already from the Cipressa, changes the dynamic of the race.”

And this is not in favour of the Belgian, a sprinter, although one who can climb very well when in good form. Philipsen would, on paper, be a prime contender to win the classic if it continued to be raced as was the case a decade ago, but the presence of Tadej Pogacar, the strongest climber in the peloton and a rider who is never not in form, makes the race very different.

Hence, even though the climb is not brutal, Cipressa has become the central point of everyone's discussion. The penultimate climb of the day features 3 kilometers at 5%, late in the day, and that is enough for attacks that create damage. It is expected that UAE will go all-out once again and try to destroy the race there. Mathieu van der Poel's task is to follow the World Champion, like last year.

“I was in good shape in Tirreno-Adriatico, but following those guys on climbs like the Poggio or Cipressa is another story," Philipsen admits. His chances lay in everything coming back to a sprint.

"I think they just have to let their legs do the talking. Mathieu has a very good chance to win again," he believes, before stating his own intentions. “I’ll try to ride from the second line. After the climbs, it’s about seeing which group I’m in and what we’re still racing for.”

Even though the Belgian's form is on the rise and perhaps peaking just in time, as shown by his recent Nokere Koerse win, it will be out of his control if the climbers set off on the Cipressa and don't slow down afterwards.

“There is always a chance. Nine times out of ten it’s a lost day, but you still take the kilometers and experience. For every small chance that exists, you have to go there. Milano-Sanremo is too important to skip.”

Alpecin is a team that, in the spring, almost exclusively focuses on the classics. Hence, even if the chances are not good for Philipsen, it is not a race that he has the luxury to skip. “I’ve experienced a scenario where I could win, so it’s definitely possible again if I can get over the climbs well. Otherwise, there’s no point going. The chance is small, and everything has to fall into place. We have different options, and that’s the strength of our team. Mathieu can do his thing on the climbs. I take a more defensive role.”

On the list of favourites, despite being the most open of monuments, there aren't any expected surprises. “If two riders can go away, it’s them," Philipsen says, naming the 'big two' who are expected to win all monuments once again this year.

"I don’t think many others can do that. Maybe someone like Filippo Ganna on a very good day, like last year. I saw in Tirreno-Adriatico that Wout van Aert looked strong. I think he’ll be close.”