"It is Vingegaard alone against Pogacar and Del Toro" - Experts warn 2022 Roglic-Vingegaard Tour tactic could now haunt Visma leader

When Tadej Pogacar cracked on the Col du Granon in 2022, it was not because Jonas Vingegaard simply rode away from him in a straight head-to-head duel. Jumbo-Visma had already spent the stage forcing him into decisions, with Primoz Roglic and Vingegaard attacking in waves on the Galibier before Vingegaard delivered the final blow on the last climb.

Four years later, Belgian experts believe the same kind of tactical problem may now be waiting for Vingegaard. Pogacar is no longer the isolated rider trying to cover two Visma threats.

With Isaac del Toro emerging as a serious mountain weapon for UAE Team Emirates - XRG, Vingegaard could be the one left chasing two dangers at once.

Speaking on RTBF's On connait nos classiques, Rodrigo Beenkens and Jerome Helguers both made Pogacar their clear favourite for the 2026 Tour de France.

Pogacar starts the Tour chasing a fifth yellow jersey, which would put him alongside Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Miguel Indurain in the race’s five-time winners' club. Beenkens sees little room for doubt around the UAE leader. “How do you want to say anything other than Pogacar today?” said Beenkens. “He was stronger in 2025 than in 2024, and everything indicates that he is stronger in 2026 than in 2025. Honestly, without illness or bad luck, I really do not see how that rider can be beaten.”

Vingegaard remains the obvious challenger. He has won the Tour twice, finished runner-up to Pogacar three times, and returns to July after a dominant Giro d’Italia. Helguers still expects him to cut into the large gaps of the last two Tours, even if he stops short of putting him on the same level before the race begins.

“In any case, he is the last one who can still set off and say, ‘I have already beaten him,’ even if they were not both at 100%,” said Helguers. “It is still very important for him to see where he stands compared with Pogacar. I think he will be behind, but that he will manage to limit the gap, which was still very big in the last two Tours de France. If he stays within a minute or two minutes, I think that would already be a successful Tour de France for him. But he is aiming for victory, and I understand that.”

The team comparison made Beenkens more cautious for Visma. Pogacar is set to be supported by Del Toro, Adam Yates, Brandon McNulty, Nils Politt, Felix Grosschartner, Tim Wellens and Florian Vermeersch. Vingegaard’s Tour squad includes Victor Campenaerts, Edoardo Affini, Matteo Jorgenson, Sepp Kuss, Bruno Armirail, Davide Piganzoli and Per Strand Hagenes.

“There, I am a little afraid for Visma,” said Beenkens. “From a collective point of view, for such a mountainous Tour, one of the hardest Tours of recent years, Pogacar seems to me to be better surrounded than Vingegaard.”

The Granon reference came directly from Helguers. In 2022, Visma had Roglic and Vingegaard as connected threats against Pogacar. This time, he believes Vingegaard may be the rider facing the double problem.

“Do you remember the year when they cracked Pogacar on the Granon?” Helguers asked. “There was a balance of power with Roglic and Vingegaard against Pogacar. I have the impression that this has now been reversed. It is Vingegaard alone against Pogacar and Del Toro.”

Roglic in 2022 and Del Toro in 2026 are not identical pieces. Roglic was already a Grand Tour winner and a proven co-leader, while Del Toro is still entering his first Tour de France. The Mexican, though, arrives after winning the Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes and has looked ready to matter in the mountains immediately, not merely develop quietly in Pogacar’s shadow.

Vingegaard used the Roglic-Vingegaard pairing to beat Pogacar for the first time. Pogacar has then beaten Vingegaard in the last two Tours without needing Del Toro as a second major threat. Now UAE arrive with Pogacar already in command of the rivalry and another rider capable of forcing Visma into difficult choices.

Beenkens also pointed to a training anecdote from UAE’s final build-up, saying Pogacar had taken 40 minutes out of Wellens and Vermeersch on a six-hour ride. Both Belgians are in the Tour selection, not riders on the edge of the squad.

“The UAE riders did a six-hour ride,” said Beenkens. “And Pogacar put 40 minutes into our two Belgians, Vermeersch and Wellens, who are not just two of the other 29 riders, but two of the seven riders selected in that team to go to the Tour!”

Vingegaard can still lean on his own record. He has beaten Pogacar at the Tour, he has just dominated the Giro, and he has spoken with clear belief that 2026 can be his year again.

Four years after Roglic and Vingegaard helped crack Pogacar through repeated pressure, the Dane now faces Pogacar in yellow-jersey form, Del Toro as the extra mountain threat, and a UAE team built to make the Tour harder long before the final duel arrives.