"I'm 95% certain we won't see Tadej Pogacar race in 2026" - What UAE leader's crash means for season ending
CyclingMonday, 31 August 2026 at 20:00
Tadej Pogacar's crash at the ongoing Vuelta a España has not only turned the whole race upside down, but also the final months of the season. On the most recent episode of the CyclingUpToDate podcast, Rúben Silva and Gavin Quinn have analyzed the Slovenian's future after a major setback.
"First and foremost, I couldn't believe it," Quinn said. "It was kind of similar to the Vingegaard crash in the Tour de France in that it happened at a very innocuous moment. Not a moment where the racing is on or a high-speed descent".
On stage 8 of the Vuelta a España, a day marked by the several mass crashes, Tadej Pogacar has gone down. Despite the day being quite calm in terms of speeds, a moment of bad luck saw Pogacar hit a rock on the road and lose control of the bike.
Whilst he attempted to get back on the bike, this did not happen. Pogacar was later confirmed to have suffered a concussion and a collarbone fracture - as well as a large laceration in his eyebrow. The crash saw the red jersey abandon the race dramatically.
"It was very much when the bunch are riding towards whatever the meaningful part of the day is. It just happens in an instant, maybe where you go to get a cup of tea or you go to get a lunchtime snack and you come back and the leader of the race, the biggest cyclist in the world, is on the deck".
"We've seen a few Pogacar crashes the last couple of years, but they always tend to be when Pogacar is pushing limits," Gavin Quinn argued. This one was quite the opposite.
"Like when he's trying to drop Tom Pidcock in Strade Bianche or he's trying to get ahead of Mathieu van der Poel on a Paris-Roubaix cobble. These crashes that we've seen have always been when Pogacar is attacking a race or pushing limits. But this one was quite surprising because it's happened on a sleepy day, on a sleepy stage 8 of the Vuelta a España".
Pogacar's calendar interrupted for the first time in years
The Slovenian is set to undergo surgery still this week, relatively delayed due to the necessary recovery from his concussion. With the World Championships on the 27th of September, it will be hard to see a return even under the most positive predictions.
For the first time perhaps in his career, the World Champion seems likely to be cast aside from several of his goals due to an injury. "To actually crash and get injured, I think it was in 2023 that we last saw it, which was the crash at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, which ultimately led to him not having the best form at the Tour," Silva pointed out.
"At this point now, we're actually looking at Pogacar's goals being severely interrupted for the first time and it's an unfamiliar thing for both us as cycling fans, cycling watchers, but also Pogacar himself, you know," Quinn responded.
There is a large difference from the 2023 crash however which is the calendar that follows. Three years ago, as Silva argued, Pogacar had time to recover from his injuries and still do some quality training before the Tour - even if not ideal.
This time around, the same is unlikely to be replicated. "At that time, you had that sort of month or two months where you didn't have to race, and you could just do training and prepare for your goals. It feels like for the World Championships, it's just too tight right now for the injuries that he's gotten".
Tadej Pogacar following his crash on stage 8
Has Pogacar's season ended?
A recovery estimate should be provided at some point soon, but will largely depend on when the Slovenian can return to the bike - even if for indoor training. "Because even a Pogacar, far from his best form, can still be competitive in a race like that," Silva argued.
"But I think that we might, for the first time in years, really be seeing at the World Championships without him. And we're going to have to look at the race in a completely different way".
"I think we have about five weeks, six weeks. It's possible. But it's also possible that he's ended his season here, effectively. Because, well, let's be honest: He has done a lot this season, he has achieved a lot".
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"And he's achieved all of his goals until this point, obviously. His big goal was obviously to win the Vuelta. And that's not going to happen anymore. So only if his injuries are really, really looking very good will he still want to return to racing this year, I reckon".
Quinn went a step further and argued that a return to racing in 2026, like Jonas Vingegaard, is almost certainly not happening:
"I'm 95% certain we won't see Tadej Pogacar race in 2026. And the 5% that thinks he might is probably motivated by Slovenian European Championships more than even the Worlds".
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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- I really hope he doesn't return this season, and takes the time to recover properly and look after himself - not feel pressured by sponsors and armchair pundits to risk his recovery and long-term health. His wins in 2026 alone are a glittering career haul for most riders, so he's got nothing to "salvage" from crashing out of La Vuelta.wrsty01-09-2026
- Feels like they are building a super team without a really top TOP-tier wunderkind GC guy in place (no offence to Onley) - perhaps this is all to tempt a certain young Frenchman?wrsty01-09-2026
- @mjj: There's also something about Pidcock and MTB that is different from Van der Poel. Pidcock raced at Novo Mesto and immediately won - he actually con jump on the bike at short notice and win! Also, he has said it's his favorite discipline in a way that Van der Poel never has.RidesHills01-09-2026
- MVDP should ride his CX bike with 700x50s instead of his MTB! Who knows? Watching his CX exploits I often wondered why I I needed an MTB with 120mm front suspension. Tom has been the premier MTB XC for a while. (disclaimer: have not seen the race yet)bike-anarkist31-08-2026
- having concussion symptoms serious enough to delay a surgery (cognitive disruption, balance issues, serious persistent headaches) would certainly qualify as a "serious concussion", which is a TBI by the way.StuffShredman31-08-2026
- Couldn't have said it better with PogiFanBoy clicks!frieders331-08-2026
- Shush... capish?PogiSloFans31-08-2026
- Who cares? He chose it to win. That’s not on anyone but Floyd.Guavaking31-08-2026
- It's a sad story. Lying and not facing the truth is like having an anvil chained to your neck. I wish him well. By coincidence I watched "The Programme." recently. Jesse Plemons play a great Landis in the film.Cyclingsbestfan31-08-2026
- It would be a powerfull team if he did sign up with Ineos. Onley's future is looking good. Carapaz and Onley would make a great climbing double act. Would it be enough though to topple Pogacar the GT king?Cyclingsbestfan31-08-2026
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