“I will pick Tom Pidcock to win tomorrow’s stage” – Bruyneel backs Pidcock for victory on Giro d’Italia debut

The 2025 Giro d’Italia gets underway on Friday with a punchy first stage in Albania and a Grand Tour route backloaded with the potential for chaos. While the bookmakers lean toward a sprint to open the race, former pro and team boss Johan Bruyneel isn’t so sure, and neither is cycling analyst Spencer Martin. And when it comes to the general classification, both are in agreement: it’s a two-man war.

“I’m going to go not for a bunch sprint stage and I will pick Tom Pidcock to win tomorrow’s stage,” said Bruyneel on The Move podcast, pointing out the technical nature of the finishing circuit. “Anything which is downhill favours Tom Pidcock technically and also he's fast.”

Martin was equally bullish: “Plus 3,300 for a Pidcock on a stage like this, that’s a very good price.”

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Despite bookmaker odds suggesting a fast-man’s finish, both analysts are sceptical. “The odds make it read as though it's a sprint stage but I'm not so sure,” Martin added. Bruyneel agreed: “I'm surprised that the bookmakers think so sure that it's going to be a sprint stage.”

While the likes of Mads Pedersen and Kaden Groves feature high in the odds for stage 1, the demanding profile opens the door to opportunists like Pidcock, Wout van Aert, or even an early breakaway surprise.

As attention turns to the general classification, it becomes clear that two riders stand above the rest. “I'm going to pick Primoz Roglic to win,” Bruyneel declared. “He's an executor, he's a calculator, and this race fits him perfectly.”

Martin offered statistical reinforcement: “The last seven Grand Tours he’s completed, he’s won five of them and finished on the podium of all of them.”

He continued: “If you add up the top 20 favourites of this Giro, Primoz Roglic has more career Grand Tour wins than the rest of them combined.”

But if anyone can challenge the Red Bull – Bora - hansgrohe leader, it’s UAE Team Emirates’ Juan Ayuso. The 22-year-old Spaniard is peaking at the right time and brings serious firepower.

“Ayuso is the other big favorite. He's been in great shape this year already… and this is his main, main, main goal of the season,” said Bruyneel.

Martin echoed the view that it is shaping up to be a two-man race, cautioning that many of the other GC hopefuls are likely locked into team roles: “You might say [Danny] Martinez has a great chance, [Jai] Hindley just in theory, but if Roglic is riding well, those guys… they're going to be working for Primoz.”

The conversation then turned to the ever-enticing question: if not Roglic or Ayuso, then who?

Bruyneel gave a nod to Ineos Grenadiers’ Egan Bernal: “I’d be more tempted to think about Egan Bernal for the podium. He does have the experience… and especially since the course of the Giro is really heavy on mountains in the last week.”

Another name hovering around GC conversations is Mikel Landa, who remains an enigmatic podium threat after years of close calls.

“Should we lock Mikel Landa in as the podium. the non-Primoz, Ayuso podium contender?” Martin asked. “This feels like we’re hurtling towards a Mikel Landa third place at this race.”

Bruyneel offered a sharp take: “The crazy thing about Landa is… he's the type of rider that if both Roglic and Ayuso crashed out… I don't even know if he would win. Like, he will finish behind someone, but he will probably finish on the podium.”

The third week will play a decisive role, with brutal alpine stages including the Colle delle Finestre and Monte Grappa looming late in the race. One stage, in particular, caught the panel’s attention.

“Stage 20 is a very hard stage with Sestriere and Finestre… putting that in the second-last stage, it could turn around everything,” Bruyneel said.

There’s even a chance that the high alpine passes won’t be rideable due to lingering snow. “I hope we can see the Colle delle Finestre on the second-last day,” he added. “Hopefully it's still close and we will find out there who's going to win the Giro.”

With over 53,000 metres of climbing and a GC duel set to ignite in the final week, Bernal’s endurance and recovery might prove crucial. “He's a typical three-week stage racer… strong in the last week, whereas others sometimes tend to fade away,” Bruyneel said.

Ultimately, the consensus was that while the Giro may throw surprises, the fight for pink rests largely between two.

“There’s a big difference between being a podium candidate and winning, or challenging to win, a Grand Tour,” Bruyneel observed. And Martin summed up the challenge facing the rest of the field: “I can’t see any of those other guys win it, honestly.”

As for fans hoping to watch just one stage?

“In terms of interest, Stage 16 is super hard,” Bruyneel said. “But the most exciting stage, in my opinion, if they get over the Colle delle Finestre, would be Stage 20.”