"I think Del Toro is going to win more stages than Pogacar" - Analyst thinks UAE have a Tour de France ace up their sleeves
CyclingThursday, 02 July 2026 at 16:30
UAE Team Emirates have a trick up their sleeves to light up the Tour de France, and it's not Tadej Pogacar. In fact, it's his teammate Isaac del Toro who has been backed to animate the race and even take some pressure off the Slovenian.
With Pogacar the favourite to win his fifth yellow jersey, his third in a row, and many others needing to step up a gear to challenge the all-conquering Slovenian, one analyst believes del Toro is exactly what UAE needed for this tour.
Nonetheless, from a fan's perspective, the general classification battle is touch and go as fans hope to see a battle for yellow. With Jonas Vingegaard, Paul Seixas, Remco Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz all reporting for Grand Boucle duty with a clean bill of health and preparation, the battle for second and third could be intense.
Another keen battle will be for the finish flag as some of the world's best sprinters take to the line. With the green jersey up for grabs, Tim Merlier, Jasper Philipsen, Olav Kooij and Mads Pedersen are just some of the high profile names expected to go shoulder-to-shoulder in bunch sprints.
"The winner is actually pretty much known, isn't it, unless something crazy happens?," Bobbie Traksel said on Eurosport's Kop over Kop podcast.
Traksel thinks Del Toro can pick up more stage wins than Pogacar
"If you look at the bookmakers, they expect an eighty percent chance that Pogacar will win. But what does get you excited is that there is uncertainty about who the best sprinter is and who will finish third."
When it comes to Pogacar, Traksel believes that he'll want to make things entertaining, which won't always translate to him attacking. Del Toro is in rich form in 2026 and could be used as an attacking pawn - one that will be difficult to stop from grasping stage wins in the hills and mountains, and even more so than Pogacar himself.
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Traksel said: "Pogacar wants to play. He wants to make the race. And they didn't really have anyone who did that. And that's why they're bringing Del Toro now, to be able to win that stage as well.
"That's going to be really super interesting. In fact, I think Del Toro is going to win more stages than Pogacar is going to. That might make me the most excited about this Tour in years."
Del Toro has won the general classification of UAE Tour, Tirreno Adriatico and Tour Auverne-Rhône-Alpes this season and took at least one stage win in each on his way to the Tour. The 22-year-old already boasts 29 professional wins and is fancied to at least make it 30 this month.
Gavin QuinnCycling Journalist
Gavin Quinn is a cycling journalist and ultra-distance cyclist with a BA in Journalism from Dublin City University. Formerly the Press & Communications Officer for Cycling Ireland, Gavin has worked inside the national team at the World Championships and has reported for the Irish Mirror, Mirror UK, and The42.
His expertise is backed by elite-level access, having interviewed stars like Sam Bennett and Ben Healy, as well as immense personal endurance. In 2025, he completed a 12,000km solo cycle from Ireland to Vietnam, following a 4,600km tour across Europe. From the cobbles of Paris-Roubaix to the gradients of the Tourmalet, Gavin’s writing focuses on the "romance and brutality" of the sport. Having visited 50+ countries, he brings a global, cultural perspective to his coverage of the pro peloton for CyclingUpToDate.
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