“He only has four or five races where he can win…” – Tom Boonen warns Wout van Aert is reducing his chances of Spring success by skipping E3

Wout van Aert’s decision to skip the E3 Saxo Classic has already been framed as a calculated move towards the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. But not everyone is convinced the trade-off works in his favour.

Speaking on the Wielerclub Wattage podcast, Tom Boonen questioned whether removing one of the spring’s key cobbled tests is a risk rather than an advantage, particularly given how limited Van Aert’s true winning opportunities are across the Classics.

“I think it’s a shame he’s not starting. In reality, he only has four or five races where he can really take a win. If you skip one of them, you simply reduce your chances of winning.”

That argument cuts against the strategy set out by Team Visma | Lease a Bike, who have opted to prioritise preparation over racing volume in the wake of Milano-Sanremo. Van Aert had already built his programme around a taper into Sanremo, followed by a training block aimed squarely at peaking for the Monuments.

For Boonen, the absence of E3 is not just about losing a chance to win, but about removing one of the clearest indicators of form ahead of the Tour of Flanders. “It’s no secret that I always liked riding E3, but then we would have really known where he stands.”

That perspective reflects the race’s place in the calendar. E3 Saxo Classic has long been seen as the closest simulation of the demands riders will face in Flanders, both in terms of terrain and intensity.

Boonen even suggested that if something had to give in the schedule, another race would have made more sense to sacrifice. “I would rather skip Gent-Wevelgem, now In Flanders Fields. That race is less relevant for him in the build-up to the Tour of Flanders.”

Boonen is not alone in his view. Jan Bakelants, a close friend and training partner of Van Aert, also admitted the decision is difficult to understand, particularly given the Belgian’s history in the race.

“Apparently, it was decided a long time ago, but I don’t really understand it either. I think it’s a strange decision, because E3 is a very meaningful race to see where he really stands. He has also already won it twice.”

That point underlines the tension at the heart of the debate. On one side sits a controlled, long-term approach designed to maximise peak performance in Flanders and Roubaix. On the other is the value of racing itself, both as a benchmark and as an opportunity.

Van Aert’s form is not in question. His ride at Milano-Sanremo, where he recovered from a crash to finish on the podium, confirmed that he is already operating at a high level. But the decision to step away from E3 removes one of the final competitive tests before the biggest races of his spring.

Instead, his build-up will continue through a more selective schedule, balancing racing with targeted training in the days leading into Flanders and Roubaix.

Whether that approach sharpens him or leaves unanswered questions will only become clear once the Monuments arrive. For now, as Boonen’s warning suggests, the choice carries both intent and risk in equal measure.