Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 4 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Will there be a surprise on 'mountainous' sprint stage as the riders fly to Italy?

The 2026 Giro d'Italia will take place from the 8th to the 31st of May. It is the first Grand Tour of the season, and there are 21 stages that will take the riders through many of Italy's iconic cities, the mythical Alps, and many treacherous stages - each one can end the climber's chances of winning. We preview stage 4, which is expected to start and finish at 13:00 and 16:30CET.

The first edition of the Corsa Rosa took place in 1909, won by Luigi Ganna that year. Italy has always been one of the most influential countries in professional cycling and the Giro provided, every year, the opportunity for the biggest riders to show off their abilities in all terrains. It is one of the races with the most history. Eddy Merckx, Alfredo Binda and Fausto Coppi have each won it five times and hold the record together.

These are riders that have marked different generations, but other generations have too been marked by the victories of Gino Bartali, Bernard Hinault, Miguel Indurain and Marco Pantani, as examples. In recent decades less Italians have won it; with Vincenzo Nibali being its latest home winner back in 2016. The likes of Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana, Tom Dumoulin and Chris Froome all marked their name in the Trofeo Senza Fine (the Giro's 'endless trophy'.

Tao Geoghegan Hart won the 'Covid edition' in 2020; Egan Bernal won it back in 2021; Jai Hindley took the win in 2022; In 2023 it was Primoz Roglic who beat Geraint Thomas in a dramatic final mountain time trial to win his first Giro; In 2024 Tadej Pogacar dominated the edition from start to finish whilst in 2025 it was Great Britain's Simon Yates who won the pink jersey after a brilliant attack on the final mountain stage which dethroned Isaac del Toro.

The riders arrive to Italy with a short stage, and one that is tricky to guess how it will end. The start off from Catanzaro in Calabria is flat and it's going to begin the rider's move up north. But it's a tricky day on the bike, with the Giro organizers throwing in an obstacle in the way of the sprinters and creating that tension.

A sprint is indeed the most likely scenario, but there is a 14.5-kilometer long climb that averages around 6%. Don't be mistaken, this is a serious climb. No, it's not an Alpine pass, but the Cozzo Tunno climb will take quite some time to ascend and the sprinters did not particularly train this sort of effort.

The climb ends with 43 kilometers to go, so just short of an hour to the finish. With certainty, the teams that want to put the pure sprinters under difficulty have the terrain to do so, definitively, whilst having a short distance to keep up the work and prevent them from coming back.

Equally, we may see some attacks here, not only to chase KOM points but to create the opportunity to win a stage or even go for the pink jersey. The sprinter teams, even those that can climb well, can't afford to push too hard or they will isolate their leaders quickly. Hence, an all-out attack from a few riders may create a gap that is then hard to close back down.

This should see a reduced peloton sprint into Cosenza. The finale is flat, so we can't be mistaken into believing it's likely that we won't see a sprint, but it is fair to suspect not everyone will arrive to the finish in contention for a good result.

The finale is flat and very technical. Inside the final 1.5 kilometers the riders find many sharp corners and even chicanes. All the way into the final 400/500 meters this will continue, meaning high risk of crashes, and the urgency to be well positioned into that point. The map below shows well the technical challenge that this sprint will be.

The wind will be blowing from the west and what this may mean is that the chances of someone pushing the pace on the climb increase. The climb will mostly be ridden with cross-tailwinds, whilst the final kilometers mostly have a crosswind to it. But there is something very important to be tackled, which is Paul Magnier. Ordinarily, a stage like this does not have a 'man to beat'. But Magnier has now won two bunch sprints; he looks mighty strong and this means that the teams that have lesser chances of winning in a sprint have to start trying different tactics in order to get the best of him.

But Magnier, Jonathan Milan and Dylan Groenewegen - the Top3 on this previous sprint stage - are all riders that will struggle if the pace goes up on the climb. 14 kilometers at 6% is a proper climb, a mountain. Don't expect GC action up there, but if only one team wants to do something with it, they can drop plenty climbers. They should as well, otherwise, they will be in the mix for another bunch sprint where the chances are not favourable.

These three teams have no reason to push the pace, and may even be allies - alongside others - if their leaders get dropped and want to then come back. There is room for an interesting set of dynamics for the stage. Because on the other side, there are good reasons to believe that a Decathlon can push a stronger pace for Tobias Lund Andresen, a lighter sprinter who isn't exactly a great climber but can certainly handle it better.

But take an INEOS who has Ben Turner, a Movistar who have Orluis Aular, or even an NSN who have Corbin Strong (although Ethan Vernon may not love it)... These are three teams that are fully justified to push the pace. They have fast men who can climb well, and if they can thin down the peloton and battle between themselves, they have much better chances of doing so then otherwise. I would ordinarily include Kaden Groves here too, but after his stage 1 crash I am not too sure if he will be feeling his best.

If a regular sprint comes to be, we must look at Madis Mihkels, Matteo Malucelli, Giovanni Lonardi, Pascal Ackermann, Paul Penhoët and Erlend Blikra for a sprint. I will exclude Arnaud de Lie, because the Belgian is clearly very far away from his best form - his continuation in the race is honestly a big question for me in the coming days.

But here I would also pose the question of whether we will see attacks. Firstly there are KOM points to obtain, on a 1st category climb, and some teams need those points early in the race to really showcase their sponsors. Polti and Bardiani are likely to go all-out on a breakaway, or even attacking with some of their best on the climb. A stage win is also a possibility, because you can gain 1 to 2 minutes on a modest-paced peloton here, which would then not be easy to catch once again.

Some teams don't really have a sprinting option or anything at all to lose. Take a Pinarello, they can attack with Chris Harper or David de la Cruz; or a Tudor who have Mathys Rondel for example... Teams that are likely to give it a go because it is their only chance of winning on a day like this; with a pink jersey potentially also as a reward.

I do assume Guillermo Thomas Silva will handle himself. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Christian Scaroni attack for Astana however, for KOM and going for a stage win. Afonso Eulálio, Martin Marcellusi, Jefferson Alexander Cepeda, Markel Beloki, Rémy Rochas, Javier Romo, Juan Pedro López, Filippo Zana, Igor Arrieta and Andreas Leknessund strike me as men who may give it a go. They cannot be underestimated either.

*** Paul Magnier, Tobias Lund Andresen

** Jonathan Milan, Ben Turner, Dylan Groenewegen

* Orluis Aular, Corbin Strong, Ethan Vernon, Madis Mihkels, Kaden Groves, Christian Scaroni, Andreas Leknessund

Pick: Tobias Lund Andresen

How: A peloton sprint but without a few important names.