Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 18 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Breakaway day or will 19% climb ignite the finale?

The 2026 Giro d'Italia will take place from the 8th to the 31st of May. It is the first Grand Tour of the season, and there are 21 stages that will take the riders through many of Italy's iconic cities, the mythical Alps, and many treacherous stages - each one can end the climber's chances of winning. We preview stage 18, which is expected to start and finish at 12:45 and 16:50CET.

The 18th stage is another odd stage, a day that almost looks fully flat, but then has one 'shark tooth' close to the finish. The points classification will be at stake here. It is another breakaway stage, not hard enough for the climbers, but too hard for a sprint. With lots of opportunists looking for a shot and several rolling climbs at the start of the day, it's impossible to prevent a strong group from going up the road.

The riders follow a southeastern trajectory into Pieve di Soligo which hosts the stage finale. The grand feature of the stage is the Muro di ca'del Poggio. This is a climb that cannot be confused with the Poggio di Sanremo, which marks Milano-Sanremo.

Instead, it's a short but incredibly steep climb that summits with just under 10 kilometers to go, averaging 11% and maximum gradients quite above it. Climbers can make the difference, not only puncheurs, here.

In the breakaway, we should see riders anticipating it, whilst others save their legs for the decisive effort there they mean to carry all the way to the line. In the peloton, the GC men will need their utmost attention to enter it well positioned.

Ahead of the queen stage, not many should want to spend a lot of energy with attacks, but they have to spend whatever is necessary to secure their positions. More explosive riders can certainly attack and try to make alliances and extend gaps in those final 10 kilometers, on a day where having teammates in the breakaway can also assist in this mission.

Some forecasts of rain but much like today, they are sporadic and are not certain. It's a day where a lot can happen, going into the race I never expected this stage not to be battled between the breakaway riders, however there is a reason why this might not happen and that is the points classification.

That is because there are lots of points at play in that stage finale, and Jhonatan Narváez is leading Paul Magnier by 12 points. Now, on stages 19 and 20 he may score some, but only minimal and if he is in the breakaway. On the final day of the race, Magnier can theoretically score 50 in the bunch sprint and so there is no safety net at the time being for the Ecuadorian.

The 1-kilometer climb is incredibly steep, it is literally a Narváez climb, and UAE have every reason to try and chase throughout the day - find an alliance, that will be crucial - and try to control things in order to then have a finale where he can grab points. Magnier is great on short climbs, but his climbing legs have not been seen at this Giro, and so there is a high chance he won't resist if the pace is high. This is the third week of the Giro and both are quite tired, but we can accurately say there is motivation around to bring this back to a bunch finale.

Whilst the stage start has some rolling hills, at the same time it is not overly hard. But again, it depends on the attitude in the peloton, as UAE alone - with five riders, almost all of them having their own individual ambitions - is not able to bring back any break. Movistar have motivations to potentially work for Orluis Aular; I don't think INEOS have but they have every reason to try and bring it back for Ben Turner; and NSN has also worked on a few days for Corbin Strong which could happen again. If Astana don't have a card in the breakaway, Guillermo Thomas Silva could also be an interesting outsider.

It's not a day for someone like Jonathan Milan or Dylan Groenewegen, there's no chance. But at their best, men like Paul Magnier and Tobias Lund Andresen can survive yes... It's not easy to predict what will happen actually. These teams have no reason to work but they can benefit from it. Toon Aerts, Ethan Vernon and Florian Stork are other men who can then go for a sprint potentially.

And of course, what of the GC riders? There will be an intense positioning battle into the climb regardless of the race situation, and after the climb we may see some attacks to try and win the stage, if the breakaway is caught by that time. The climbers are naturally the ones who will be towards the front the most. Some can escape with a sneaky attack, of course the men that Jonas Vingegaard won't care about.

Afonso Eulálio, Egan Bernal, Derek Gee, Ben O'Connor, Michael Storer and Chris Harper can all do it; whilst on paper Giulio Ciccone is also a contender for the stage win in every single scenario.

A breakaway can also be successful without a doubt, with the list of favourites being similar to today. Special danger lays in men like Alberto Bettiol, Diego Ulissi, Lorenzo Milesi, Jasper Stuyven, Matteo Sobrero and Alec Segaert.

*** Ben Turner, Orluis Aular, Jhonatan Narváez

** Giulio Ciccone, Alberto Bettiol, Paul Magnier

* Tobias Lund Andresen, Toon Aerts, Corbin Strong, Guillermo Thomas, Jonas Vingegaard, Jasper Stuyven, Matteo Sobrero, Alec Segaert, Lorenzo Milesi

Pick: Small bunch sprint.

How: Ben Turner.