"Could Van der Poel have won? No" - Against Tadej Pogacar, the Dutchman cannot win Strade Bianche, Zonneveld argues

Strade Bianche is a race where the climbers and puncheurs mix, but its become more of a climber's race since the addition of a final lap in 2024. Mathieu van der Poel is a former winner of the race, but against a current-day Tadej Pogacar he would stand no chance, Thijs Zonneveld argues.

Whilst the addition in kilometers and climbing meters is not overly significant, most of that was added onto the finale of the race. A second lap consisting of sectors such as Colle Pinzuto and Le Tolfe saw the race become one that is decided more on attrition; and one where the climbs can't be ridden so often at anaerobic pace as there are simply many more to go up.

Hence the explosivity of van der Poel, Wout van Aert and other classics specialists became less important in Tuscany; whilst the early attacks of UAE and Tadej Pogacar have forced riders to spend the last 80 kilometers at their limit over the previous editions - or two hours of racing.

“You have your FTP, the power you should be able to hold for an hour. We have always said that Pogacar rides below his FTP when he is sitting in the bunch and others are pulling on the front. But he is probably also riding below his FTP when he is alone on the front for two hours in Strade Bianche," Zonneveld argued on the In de Waaier podcast.

“If he were riding at his FTP, he would only be able to sustain that for a maximum of an hour. So Pogacar is not even riding at his FTP, while behind him there are ten or twelve guys attacking and rotating through, and they do not take back even a second. And those are not exactly ordinary riders!”

Pogacar is simply superior in a race that is incredibly difficult and technically challenging, making it impossible over the past three editions for there to be anyone at his level. The debate often becomes on whether anyone can initially follow him, and also on whether Mathieu van der Poel would be able to challenge the World Champion here. Van der Poel is the winner of the 2021 edition, but hasn't raced it since 2023 where he was 15th.

“I did see comments saying: if Gianni Vermeersch can finish fifth, then shouldn’t Van der Poel have ridden too? And what could he have done? But Van der Poel does not ride for second or third place — that is the only answer,” the Dutchman believes.

However physiologically speaking, there are few riders of van der Poel's size who can contest for a top result in this race currently. In the results of the 2026 edition, Wout van Aert is the only rider on the Top10 to weight more than 70Kg. This is ultimately a big factor to Zonneveld's argument.

“If you are such a great champion, you do not feel like losing two or three kilos for a race like Strade Bianche. He did that once for the World Championships in Zurich, where he finished third. But he is not going to do that in the weeks before the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. That makes perfect sense.”

With Strade Bianche already in his palmarès and the three spring monuments that he aims for in the following weeks, it is simply a logical decision for him to not attend a race that requires the utmost preparation, and also carries significant risks of crashing. All that for a potential reward that is simply not worth it.

“Could Van der Poel have won? No. Finished on the podium? I am not even sure about that," Zonneveld believes. Without Pogacar, maybe it becomes possible, because the race would then be more tactical and maybe you could anticipate somewhere".

"But now it is simply a matter of lining up behind that terrible UAE train. That changes the race and, although there is more climbing in the route, it is above all because of Pogacar that Van der Poel decides not to race.”