Can Matteo Jorgenson win the 2024 Tour de France? We tell you why the answer is yes

Under normal conditions we would not say that Matteo Jorgenson is one of the favourites to win the 2024 Tour de France. But this year's edition of the race has not been arrived at under normal conditions with, in theory at least, all the big favourites in less than optimal conditions.

Having already won Paris-Nice earlier this year, and finished as runner-up at the Criterium du Dauphine by just a handful of seconds, despite a thrilling assault on the final climb of the final stage that left the Maillot Jaune of Primoz Roglic scrambling, Jorgenson is arguably the best placed rider to capitalise on any weaknesses of the 'Big 4'.

JONAS VINGEGAARD.

On the one hand we have Jonas Vingegaard, the winner of the last two editions of the Tour de France and clear favourite in normal conditions. This time around however, the Dane lands for the Grand Depart in Florence with his shape a complete mystery after not competing since he suffered a hard fall in the Itzulia Basque Country earlier this year, that left the Team Visma | Lease a Bike leader with a broken collarbone and several rib fractures, plus a punctured lung that left him in intensive care.

The Dane crashed on April 4 and didn't return to road training until May 7. Whilst we do know that he has been able to train at altitude throughout June, you would assume his level is not going to be anywhere near the incredible level he has already shown in the 3 Tours de France he has raced to date.

There is no doubt that Vingegaard is going to at least start as the leader of Team Visma | Lease a Bike, but there is also no doubt that Jorgenson is going to be there in case his leader doesn't make it to the overall.

TADEJ POGACAR.

No, Jorgenson is not currently at the level to compete against a Tadej Pogacar at his peak. The thing in the favour of Californian however, is that Pogacar may not be at his very best level.

There are two reasons why the Slovenian may not be on top form in coming weeks: because he rode the Giro d'Italia and because he suffered Covid just 10 days before the Tour. So, as with Vingegaard, we don't know Pogacar's real physical condition. He may arrive looking as special as ever after the Giro and blow up the race in the very hard first week. Or he may have been affected by the coronavirus and is not well. In any case, it is clear that Jorgenson's chances of victory depend on the two big favourites not being at their best level, something that, as we have explained, cannot be ruled out.

PRIMOZ ROGLIC, REMCO EVENEPOEL AND COMPANY.

The main reason that Matteo Jorgenson can win the Tour de France is because, among other things, people inside Team Visma | Lease a Bike believe he can. Not for nothing did they comment a few days ago that he is, along with Pogacar and Mathieu van der Poel the best cyclist of 2024. So, if Pogacar and Vingegaard are not on top form, how can the best rider not be in contention to win the Tour de France?

Already this year, Jorgenson has faced the other two pre-race favourites to win the 2024 Tour de France, Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel, and he has been able to beat them both. He was far superior to the Belgian in the high mountains and has shown a similar level to the Slovenian: in fact, he beat him in Paris-Nice and narrowly lost in Dauphiné, despite showing stronger legs at the end.

Bottom line: NO, Matteo Jorgenson is not a favourite to win the 2024 Tour de France. But YES, he can win it;