ANALYSIS | Why Bernal and Carapaz could be the stars of the Vuelta a Espana 2025

There is now just one week to go before the 2025 Vuelta a España begins, and the tension is already building. The heat is rising in every sense, though this year’s route offers some relief for the riders. With the race based in the northern regions of Spain, the peloton will avoid the crushing summer temperatures of the south, like they did last year. Still, conditions are expected to be demanding, with weather and terrain combining to make life complicated for the competitors.

Although many teams have yet to confirm their full squads, the provisional lists already feature some major names. Among them are two Latin American riders who look set to carry the region’s best hopes for the general classification. Richard Carapaz and Egan Bernal both come into the Vuelta with podium ambitions, and each has the pedigree to shape the race. Carapaz, riding for EF Education–EasyPost, was third at this year’s Giro d’Italia, while Bernal remains the clear leader of INEOS Grenadiers.

Carapaz’s path to the Spanish Grand Tour has been anything but smooth. The Ecuadorian’s season began with a series of disappointments: he abandoned the Etoile de Bessèges – Tour du Gard, finished only 25th at the Classic Var, and could do no better than ninth at the Tour des Alpes Maritimes. When he lined up at races such as Strade Bianche and Tirreno–Adriatico, events that should have suited his strengths, he was largely anonymous. Eighteenth place at Tirreno summed up a rider clearly searching for rhythm.

Things hardly improved at Milano–Torino, where he placed 16th, or at the Volta a Catalunya, where he was 10th overall. By the time the 32-year-old arrived at the Giro, doubts outweighed expectations. Yet the Italian race transformed his year. Over three weeks, Carapaz steadily grew stronger, capped by a stage win and an outstanding third week in which he appeared the most in-form climber in the field.

What might have been a stunning victory, however, was lost to tactical missteps and a breakdown in cooperation with Isaac del Toro. Those mistakes allowed Simon Yates to claim the maglia rosa, leaving Carapaz on the third step of the podium. Since then, he has not raced, meaning he will approach the Vuelta without the benefit of tune-up competition.

Bernal, meanwhile, has followed a different trajectory. The Colombian began 2025 in style by sweeping his national championships, taking both the time trial, for the first time since 2018, and the road race. It marked the first time a Colombian had done the double since Israel Antonio Ochoa in 2004, and it gave Bernal an ideal start to his campaign.

His debut in INEOS Grenadiers’ new colours came at the Clásica Jaén, though that ended in a DNF. From there he moved on to the Volta a Catalunya, where he showed encouraging signs by finishing seventh overall. Only Primoz Roglic, Juan Ayuso, Enric Mas, Mikel Landa, Lenny Martinez and Laurens De Plus placed ahead of him, proof that Bernal’s climbing ability was returning against top opposition.

The Giro d’Italia offered both progress and frustration. Bernal finished seventh again, but importantly it was his strongest Grand Tour result since the 2021 Vuelta a España, when he placed sixth overall. Twice he came within touching distance of a stage victory, finishing third on one mountain stage and fifth on another, signs that he is once more able to fight in decisive terrain.

Bernal’s final preparation for the Vuelta came at the Vuelta a Burgos. It was the only race on his schedule between the Giro and the Spanish Grand Tour, but it provided a useful test. He finished sixth in the queen stage at Lagunas de Neila and secured sixth overall in the final classification. Riders such as Isaac del Toro, Lorenzo Fortunato, Léo Bisiaux, Giulio Pellizzari and Giulio Ciccone finished ahead of him, but Bernal’s performance confirmed he has the level required to compete in Spain’s biggest race.

Now, with the Vuelta a España 2025 just days away, the spotlight falls on Carapaz and Bernal as the leading Latin American hopes. Both have realistic ambitions of finishing inside the top 10 in Madrid, and neither will pass up the opportunity to target a stage victory along the way.

The Ecuadorian arrives with the memory of his Giro podium but without racing legs sharpened by recent competition. The Colombian brings momentum from Burgos and the assurance that he can once again hold his own across three weeks. If nothing unexpected occurs, the two should emerge as key figures in the fight for the general classification, carrying the flag for their nations in cycling’s final Grand Tour of the season.