ANALYSIS | Tadej Pogacar chases Merckx and Coppi at Il Lombardia, but can Remco Evenepoel stop him?

Il Lombardia returns on Saturday, 11 October 2025, with a 241km course from Como to Bergamo and 4,400 metres of climbing, the capstone to road cycling’s five Monuments. It’s undoubtedly one of the most picturesque sporting events of the year, but in truth it seems unlikely that we will have much of a race for first place. And we all know why that is the case.

For Tadej Pogacar, Saturday is more than a season finale: it’s a shot at a fifth straight win that would put him level with Fausto Coppi’s all-time record at this race. He arrives as World and European champion and fresh off another Tour de France title, the rare rider who can carry peak form from spring to autumn. If he adds a podium in Bergamo, he will also complete a podium sweep of all five Monuments in 2025, including wins in Liege and Flanders.

Lombardia matters because it closes the ledger. It is the “Classic of the Falling Leaves,” traditionally the last Monument on the calendar and the Autumn Classic most tilted toward climbers and all-day diesel engines. First run in 1905, it has long been a stage where grand-tour heavyweights settle their final scores on Italian hills and serpentine descents before winter draws the curtain. Its roll of honour is stacked full of legends, and no name looms larger here than Coppi’s five victories, the benchmark Pogacar is hunting this weekend.

Pogacar’s relationship with this race is already historic. He has won four in a row, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024,a streak that matched Coppi’s consecutive run and, last October, produced the biggest winning margin since Eddy Merckx in 1971. “Every victory is special, and today also, because the team worked so hard all year for all the victories that we achieved, and today is no different,” he said after dismantling the field in 2024.

The through-line from that interview to this week is continuity: the same team spine, the same appetite for long, selective days, and a route that closely mirrors the 2023 Bergamo finish he mastered. What makes things even scarier about his performance in 2024 was how far ahead Remco Evenepoel was of the third place rider, as the Belgian himself had put together a superb performance only to be dismantled by Pogacar.

Apologies, this section will talk about Pogacar and history making, which we’re sure almost all cycling fans are sick of hearing by now. Pogacar’s 2025 body of work explains why history is within reach. He won the Tour of Flanders in April, then Paris-Roubaix on debut slipped only by a whisker as he finished second; he also crushed Liège-Bastogne-Liège with a solo from La Redoute. At Milan–San Remo he took second in a three-up sprint behind Mathieu van der Poel. In fact, if it wasn’t for Van der Poel, Pogacar would have won every monument so far this year, and would have had an extra Tour stage win too. Although, he isn’t exactly short on Tour stage wins…

Stack those results, then add the yellow jersey, the rainbow jersey in Kigali and a European title won with a 75km solo, and the context for Bergamo is unmistakable: his form has been relentless since March. “Remco was really good and always chasing me and I could not give up until the finish line. I had to push really, really hard and I'm happy it's over and another title,” he said after sealing the European crown, before adding, “Every year I want to be a better version of myself. Try to gain more experience, try different races and I am lucky enough to be in these kinds of races. I need to enjoy it for as long as I can.”

There’s a second storyline twined through Saturday: the podium sweep. Because Pogacar podiumed at Milan–San Remo (3rd), won the Tour of Flanders (1st), finished second at Paris-Roubaix (2nd), and won Liège-Bastogne-Liège (1st), a top-three in Bergamo would make him the first rider to stand on the podium of all five Monuments within the same season.

The route’s nuances will shape how he and everyone else tries to win. Using Ghisallo from Asso makes the early hours harder than a ceremonial promenade; the irregular ramps force domestiques to burn matches before the Bergamasque climbs stack fatigue. Roncola’s pitch to 17% is where UAE can sift a reduced group and park lieutenants up the road, and the Selvino’s 19 hairpins tempt a descender to roll the dice (attention Tom Pidcock) and Colle Aperto’s cobbles reward those with one last anaerobic squeeze after six hours’ attrition.

The pattern of recent editions suggests two winning templates: the 2023 playbook, where a late Ganda strike and a committed descent broke resistance, or the 2024 hammer-blow from Sormano that left everyone counting. This route allows either. And Pogacar’s form likely means he can win almost however he wants.

Rivals? Remco Evenepoel remains the obvious foil on this terrain, especially given how he destroyed Pogacar in the world championship time trial. In truth, Evenepoel seems closer than he ever has to matching Pogacar on the climbs, but he is still a long way off.

There will be no Jonas Vingegaard this weekend. The man who has twice beaten Pogacar at the Tour de France, and won the Vuelta in September, suffered a dismal return to racing at the European Championships last weekend. We will most likely have to wait until next summer for another Pogacar vs Vingegaard showdown.

Lombardia rarely tells lies, the strongest climber with the strongest tactics tends to win here. This race’s symbolism is not accidental. Lombardia is where the year’s threads come together, and where seasons acquire their final polish. It is the Monument that can stand in for a whole season, the one that offers revenge after Worlds or a crowning flourish for those who have already taken everything.

If Pogacar adds a fifth straight, he joins Coppi at the summit of Lombardy’s history; if he “only” makes the podium, he writes a different kind of first by completing the full-year Monument podium sweep. Either way, Bergamo will put a period on 2025 for road racing.