ANALYSIS | Just 4 riders have stopped Visma and UAE from winning every major stage race since the beginning of 2024

The dominance of UAE Team Emirates – XRG and Team Visma | Lease a Bike has become one of the defining features of professional cycling over the past five seasons. But, in the last two seasons, has the dominance got out of hand? Since the beginning of 2024, the two outfits have combined to win 20 of the 27 biggest stage races on the calendar. In the latest UCI rankings, UAE lead with 27,295.85 points, far ahead of Visma’s 15,907.99. The gap in points mirrors what fans have seen on the road, a scenario where other teams struggle to get a look in.

The question is now whether cycling is becoming too much like professional football? And can the financial gap be overturned?

UAE’s form in 2025 has been, in one word, unstoppable. By mid-August, they have already taken 72 wins, just nine shy of their 2024 total of 81 victories. That figure ranked as the third-highest win count ever achieved by a professional cycling team. The squad now has its sights on the all-time record of 87 stage wins in a single year, a benchmark set by Team Columbia – HTC in 2009, when Mark Cavendish was in his prime. With several major races still on the schedule, the possibility of surpassing that mark is very real.

Visma’s total wins are more modest in comparison, but still reflect a team capable of turning up for the biggest events. They have secured 27 victories so far in 2025, including one of the year’s most significant wins, Simon Yates’ victory at the Giro d’Italia in May. While they may not match UAE’s relentless numbers, Visma’s haul still places them well ahead of most rivals.

The near-total control exerted by the two teams leaves just a handful of victories to be claimed by others. In fact, since the start of 2024, only seven major stage races have been won by riders from outside UAE and Visma. The standout among them is Primoz Roglic, who has taken three of those titles. The Slovenian won the 2024 Dauphine, and the 2024 Vuelta a Espana, with that Vuelta victory a record-equalling 4th title in Spain. Earlier in 2025, Roglic also won the Volta a Catalunya, beating Juan Ayuso.

So, thank you Primoz for making it interesting!

Two more of the seven non-UAE/Visma wins came from Belgium’s Lennert van Eetvelt, a the young rider for Lotto. His 2024 season included victories at the UAE Tour and the Tour of Guangxi, results that suggested a rider on the rise, however, he has been unable to replicate that form in 2025. Carlos Rodríguez also features on the list thanks to his 2024 Tour de Romandie victory, though like van Eetvelt, he has not converted that momentum into wins this season. The final spot goes to Stephen Williams, who opened 2024 with a win at the Tour Down Under, but has not been back on the top step of a stage race podium since.

This narrowing of competitive opportunities is underscored by the financial realities of the sport. UAE reportedly operate on a budget of nearly €60 million, while Visma’s resources sit at about €45 million. By contrast, Arkéa–B&B Hotels, bottom of the WorldTour rankings, work with just €17 million and face the dual threat of losing both sponsors and being relegated from cycling’s top tier.

The budget gap translates into squad depth, access to the best support staff, and the ability to secure multiple high-profile riders capable of winning at the top level. As a result, races often play out with UAE and Visma setting the pace and leaving the rest to fight for scraps. In 2025, with only one major stage race win going to a rider outside those two teams, the numbers raise an unavoidable question: is elite men’s road cycling becoming too predictable?