ANALYSIS: Jonas Vingegaard's 5 biggest threats at 2025 Vuelta a Espana
CyclingTuesday, 19 August 2025 at 09:51
The final Grand Tour of the season is nearly upon us. On August 23, the 2025 Vuelta a Espana will roll out from Italy for a historic Grande Partenza, culminating in Madrid on September 14. With Tadej Pogačar opting out after securing his fourth Tour de France title, the path appears clear for Jonas Vingegaard to seize his long-awaited Vuelta crown. But it won't be a procession.
Team Visma | Lease a Bike's Danish leader is undoubtedly the top favourite, but the mountain-heavy parcours offers no room for complacency. A formidable cast of challengers is assembling — many of whom have proven capable of toppling even the sport’s biggest stars. From UAE’s twin threat to seasoned GC warriors and climbers in peak form, the battle for red will be anything but predictable.
Here are the five riders most likely to challenge Jonas Vingegaard for the 2025 Vuelta a España title.
1. João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)
There’s little doubt that João Almeida stands as Vingegaard’s most dangerous rival. Despite the dual leadership structure at UAE, the Portuguese star is expected to be the primary GC threat given his consistency, tactical maturity, and time trialing prowess.
Almeida hasn’t raced since his crash and injury at the Tour de France, but his form before July was staggering. He became only the third rider in a decade to win three consecutive WorldTour stage races in a single season:
- Itzulia Basque Country (2 stage wins)
- Tour de Romandie
- Tour de Suisse (3 stage wins)
What sets Almeida apart is his balanced skill set — he climbs with the best and holds his own in the time trials. Stage 18's ITT in Valladolid could be pivotal, particularly after Vingegaard’s vulnerability in the flat chrono at Caen during the Tour. If Almeida recovers fully, he has the tools to seriously threaten for red.
Almeida has starred throughout 2025
2. Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates - XRG)
Sharing leadership duties with Almeida is Juan Ayuso, the young Spaniard tipped as the future of Spanish cycling. While 2025 has been a mixed bag for Ayuso, he remains a potent force on home soil and thrives in the punchy, high-altitude terrain that typically defines the Vuelta.
Ayuso impressed in his first two appearances at the race:
- 3rd overall in 2022, at just 19
- 4th in 2023, behind the untouchable Visma trio of Kuss, Vingegaard, and Roglič
After an injury-forced withdrawal from the Giro d’Italia, he returned with a strong showing at the Circuito de Getxo, finishing second and playing a key role in teammate Isaac del Toro’s victory. With a fresh set of legs and full national support behind him, Ayuso will look to light up the climbs and prove he belongs on the top step.
Can Ayuso send his doubters a message with a Vuelta win?
3. Richard Carapaz (EF Education–EasyPost)
Few riders in the peloton combine race craft, grit, and explosiveness quite like Richard Carapaz. The 2020 Vuelta runner-up and 2019 Giro champion is heading into this year’s edition with unfinished business, having missed the Tour de France due to health issues.
Carapaz was agonizingly close to winning this year’s Giro, only to be ambushed by Simon Yates on the legendary Colle delle Finestre. Ultimately finishing 3rd, he showed he's still a GC rider of the highest calibre. His record at the Vuelta is equally impressive — second in 2020, fourth in 2024, and three career stage wins.
With no pressure and a team built to support him, the “Locomotora del Carchi” will be looking to take advantage of every chaotic mountain stage—and there are many. If Vingegaard falters, Carapaz will be there to strike.
Carapaz finished on the podium of the Giro d'Italia earlier this year
4. Giulio Ciccone (Lidl–Trek)
Giulio Ciccone has emerged as one of 2025’s most exciting climbers, returning from his Giro withdrawal with vengeance and flair. His recent victory at the Clásica de San Sebastián and a stage win at the Vuelta a Burgos (Lagunas de Neila) confirmed he’s back in top form.
Before his Giro exit, Ciccone had already stacked an impressive palmarès in 2025:
- 2nd at Liège–Bastogne–Liège
- 4th at the Tour of the Alps
- 2nd at the UAE Tour, behind only Pogačar
Now 30, Ciccone appears ready to transition from a stage hunter to a genuine GC contender. His climbing legs are undeniable, and with a Lidl–Trek team that’s shown renewed ambition, he could very well disrupt Vingegaard’s plans, especially on the longer, steeper ascents where the Italian thrives.
Ciccone heads to La Vuelta in probably his career best form
5. Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)
Felix Gall rounds out the list, and while he may not have the same pedigree as the others, the Austrian is arguably in the best form of his life. He capped off a breakthrough Tour de France by finishing 5th overall, showcasing his resilience in the high mountains and consistency across three weeks.
With Decathlon AG2R committed to an aggressive racing style, expect Gall to be a central figure in early breakaways and mountain stage fireworks. He may not have the raw explosiveness of Vingegaard, but over a gruelling Vuelta, fatigue and attrition could work in his favour.
A podium might be a more realistic target, but Gall's ability to apply pressure — particularly if Visma shows any cracks — makes him a significant threat.
Gall could be a dark horse to take La Vuelta glory
Verdict: Vingegaard's Race to Lose
With Tadej Pogacar sitting out, Jonas Vingegaard enters the 2025 Vuelta a España as the undisputed favourite. His record across Grand Tours speaks for itself, and without his arch-rival on the start line, the expectation is simple: win or bust.
But Grand Tours are never won on paper. João Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Richard Carapaz, Giulio Ciccone, and Felix Gall form an elite group of challengers who bring a mix of climbing prowess, tactical danger, and unpredictable variables. Over three weeks of punishing terrain, any one of them could capitalise on a moment’s hesitation or a single bad day.
For Vingegaard, anything less than victory in Madrid would be seen not only as a missed opportunity, but a major disappointment for both him and Team Visma | Lease a Bike.
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- What does he need to pay Pogi to lead him out?Veganpotter04-12-2025
- Ayuso is not a surprise if you look at his previous 5yrs.Veganpotter04-12-2025
- What do you mean?BenAflec04-12-2025
- Just making the note that it’s actually closer to 120 because most of it is consumed in the first 4 hrs, not evenly across 5 hrs up until the finish.crharnishphd04-12-2025
- WVA dropped TP and his bad knee.Cyclingnut04-12-2025
- Everyone shouts "rider x" is getting better and could beat Pogacar... Tadej is still improving year on year too.....slappers6604-12-2025
- It's not a big blow for Pogacar. Today, Pogacar relies on a close, increasingly Slovenian circle of experts. Among them, the central figure is his longtime friend Ziga Jerman, who took on the role of masseur in 2025. Jerman has known Pogačar since before his global fame, when they cycled together at the Ljubljana club Rog, so Elguezabal’s departure does not pose a threat for Pogi but rather marks the end of a very successful chapter. UAE will have to fill the gap in its professional staff, but for Pogi, this departure will not play an important role.NikkoNicco04-12-2025
- OK, enough of this BS. No one went to college or university from kindergarten. First, Remco must graduate from high school with excellent results to meet with the professor Pogacar in university and to be in same room with him. But you see, Pogi the Great also has a PhD (doctorate in cycling). In 2026, I want to see that success from Remco in high school, because I haven't seen it in these 7 years.NikkoNicco04-12-2025
- calling him a star in cross before he beats MVDP or WVA is also a big stretch.mij04-12-2025
- I think once he's the undisputed leader in a race, he can become more consistent than he was in the past.Ride197404-12-2025
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