ANALYSIS | Did both Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard misjudge their Tour de France preparation?

Tadej Pogacar won the 2025 Tour de France by a commanding margin of 4 minutes and 24 seconds over Jonas Vingegaard, taking his fourth yellow jersey and solidifying his dominance over the sport’s defining rivalry. And yet, the final week of the race raised as many questions as it answered. Pogacar looked fatigued, talked openly about burnout, and surprisingly faded from stage-winning form. Vingegaard, on the other hand, grew stronger as the race went on, but the damage had already been done and he still could not put a dent into Pogacar.

The contrasting third weeks from the two best stage racers in the world prompts a serious question: Did both of them get their Tour preparations wrong this year? Was Pogacar overcooked from a long, intense spring? Was Vingegaard lacking sharpness after a quiet build-up? Let’s look deeper at their seasons, compare with previous years, and see what the data tells us about what might have gone wrong, and right.

From the outside, Pogacar's fourth Tour win looked inevitable by the midpoint of the race. He was relentless in the first two weeks, winning four stages, including back-to-back victories in the Pyrenees, and putting huge time into Vingegaard on Stage 5's time trial and again on Stage 12 up to Hautacam. Those two stages alone accounted for a combined 3 minutes and 15 seconds of the final 4:24 gap, and it is true that after the Hautacam the battle for the GC was over.

But after those two defining performances, the Slovenian’s form plateaued for his own incredible standards. He stopped hunting stages. He looked visibly flat. And in press conferences he struck a more philosophical tone than usual. He said, “Burnouts happen, and it could happen to me too.” He even mentioned the idea of retirement, telling reporters that burnout is common in many sports and that he wouldn’t mind stepping away if it ever hit him too.

Pogacar, tired, winless in the third week, and talking about retirement…It felts like the apocalypse!

For a rider who won six stages at last year’s Tour, three of them in the final three stages, this was a notable shift. In 2024, he raced and won the Giro-Tour double, taking six stages in both Grand Tours, while also winning Strade Bianche and Liège. That season, he racked up 52 race days by the end of July.

In 2025, Pogacar’s schedule looked lighter on paper, ‘just’ 43 race days by the same date, but the composition of those days tells a different story. He began his season on February 17 at the UAE Tour, a seven-stage race, before throwing himself fully into the Spring Classics: Strade Bianche, Milano-Sanremo, Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix, Amstel Gold, La Flèche Wallonne, and Liège. That’s seven tough one-day races, each ridden at full gas, especially in the company of Mathieu van der Poel.

He then raced the eight stages of the Dauphiné, winning the GC there, just as he had at UAE Tour. That’s 22 race days before the Tour even began. Compared to 2024, where he raced two Grand Tours but faced light competition at the Giro, the 2025 schedule may have been less voluminous but more intense.

Every single one of the classic he raced this year were ridden at full gas. And it's true: duelling Van der Poel in the monuments and cobbled classics arguably took more out of him than riding away with an uncontested Giro in 2024, where he won by nearly 10 minutes.

So while Pogacar’s 2025 prep looked leaner numerically, the effort may have been far greater. And by the third week of the Tour, it showed. The spark we are so accustom to seeing had faded ever so slightly. Yes, he still comfortably defended yellow, but he didn’t look like a rider aiming to break records anymore. He looked like someone who needed a break, and now, he’ll get one. He’s confirmed he’ll skip the Vuelta and take time to recover ahead of the World Championships.

Of course, despite what most believe, Pogacar is only human. But for a man whose appetite for victory is usually relentless, the last week of the Tour showed a different side to him.

In sharp contrast, Jonas Vingegaard rode into the Tour with a very different approach. After crashing out of Paris-Nice on March 13, he didn’t race again until the Dauphiné on June 8, a gap of nearly three months. That left him with just 18 race days in his legs before the Tour began. By comparison, Pogacar had 22. And in terms of intensity, the difference is even starker.

Vingegaard’s only win of the season before the Tour was at the Volta ao Algarve, and even that was by a slim margin. His buildup was cautious, low-profile, and largely reactive to injury. The question heading into the race was whether he would have enough racing in his legs to be sharp in week one. Early on, Vingegaard was attacking Pogacar on the classics style stages, and it looked set to be a tightly contested battle for yellow.

That did not last long.

Vingegaard’s Tour unravelled on two key days. Stage 5’s time trial saw him lose 1:05 to Pogacar. Then came the hammer blow on Stage 12 at Hautacam, where he cracked and conceded 2:10. Outside of those stages, he was close to Pogacar, well matched, in fact, but the damage was done.

And yet, Vingegaard says he felt at his highest level this Tour. He was adamant that “I’m feeling much better than last year,” and pointed to those two bad days as rare anomalies for him. “Usually I don’t suffer cracks,” he said. That comment raises questions about what really caused those lapses, bad luck, or a lack of deep conditioning?

Compare this to 2023, the year Vingegaard won the Tour in dominant fashion. That year, he raced 26 stages before July: he won O Gran Camiño, placed third at Paris-Nice, won Itzulia Basque Country, then the Dauphiné. His racing gaps were smaller too, the longest was under two months. In 2025, the near three-month layoff from March to June might have cost him vital sharpness.

That also helps explain his attitude in the third week. No, Vingegaard was not able to crack Pogacar on Ventoux or the Col de la Loze, where he has done previously, but he seemed ready to race. He even told reporters mid-race that he couldn’t wait for the Vuelta to start, and he’ll now head there aiming to win red and salvage his season. Whilst his rival spends time recovering, the Dane will now head to Spain in several weeks’ time, a race where he finished second two years ago.

So, can we seriously say either of these elite riders got their preparation ‘wrong?’

It is a tough argument to make. Pogacar just won the Tour comfortably, and Vingegaard was a long way clear of the rest. But could Pogacar have been more dominant without such an intense spring? And could Vingegard have been closer with a more intense spring?

Perhaps.

Pogacar may have pushed too hard in the spring, pouring energy into full-gas classics that left him ever so slightly depleted in the final stages. His third week was a shadow of the first two, and for the first time in two years, he looked mortal.

Vingegaard, on the other hand, may have held back too much. Eighteen race days before the Tour, with a three-month gap, might work for some, but it didn’t work for him this year. His form was late to arrive, and by the time it did, Pogacar was already too far gone. Those two bad days aren’t common for him, but they were decisive here.

The irony is that both riders probably had better blueprints in their recent past. Pogacar in 2024 was fresher in July despite a busier calendar, likely because the Giro didn’t push him to his limit. Vingegaard in 2023 had a steadier ramp-up with regular competition and won the Tour with overwhelming force. But in 2025, both altered their approaches, and neither seemed to be at their very, very best.

The biggest immediate consequence is Pogacar’s decision to skip the Vuelta. That’s not a small move for someone chasing Eddy Merckx’s records. He clearly needs to recover, physically and mentally, and focus on ending the season well at the World Championships.

Vingegaard’s opposite decision, racing the Vuelta, suggests he feels his form is still on the rise. Whether he peaks too late or strikes gold in Spain remains to be seen, but he will certainly be the favourite for red.

Unfortunately for fans, it likely means we will have to race another year for a true head to head between the sports top two. There will be no rematch at La Vuelta, and should the two race again at the world championships, Vingegaard will be coming in with two grand tours in his legs.

For now, the strange week 3 of this year’s Tour is one we will have to continue to debate.