Preview stage 1 Tour Down Under 2026 - Sam Welsford and Matthew Brennan headline Tanunda sprint battle
CyclingTuesday, 20 January 2026 at 11:47
We preview stage 1 of the Tour Down Under that is set to take place on the 21st January, having an estimated start time at 01:49CET and finishing at 04:25CET. After Sam Watson's victory on the prologue, this will be the best day for the sprinters to battle for the win amongst each other, and amongst them will be Visma's Matthew Brennan and INEOS' Sam Welsford.
Stage 1 will start and finish in Tanunda, with three laps of a circuit providing the sprinters with their first chance to win and also take the ochre jersey. The circuit is not completely flat, but it will be very hard to disrupt the fast men's goals.
The ascent to Mengler Hill is only slight, however after the summit there will be a very fast and steep descent which will lead to some tension and fight for positioning. The last 7 kilometers are mostly flat however, not technical, and if anything the final kilometer of the stage has a slight uphill tilt.
Stage 1: Tanunda - Tanunda, 120.6 kilometers
Stage 1: Tanunda - Tanunda, 120.6 kilometers
The Weather
Map of stage 1 of the 2026 Tour Down Under
It will be hot and there will be strong southern wind. Now, this isn't a race that usually sees echelon, but yes they can happen. The conditions are pretty good, with several crosswind sections, roads that are overall quite exposed and this includes some in the final kilometers. It could become quite tense, whilst the final sprint in town will on paper have a cross-tailwind.
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The Favourites
Sam Welsford - This is Welsford's race - by that I also mean it's usually the only one he performs well in. Will the same happen in 2026? That remains to be seen, but we should expect him to ride well here, specially with a decent time today on the prologue. A pure flat finish will suit him, although INEOS' leadout isn't luxurious. Neither is Brennan's however, so on paper both riders may have to get in the wheels of their rivals.
Matthew Brennan - Brennan would certainly enjoy the wind to play a role here on this day, and fatigue the other sprinters beforehand. Leadout wise Filippo Fiorelli could be interesting, but the Tour Down Under is very much a test. However the Briton is incredibly strong, and I think in any scenario he may go on to take a win.
We've got a few teams with more than one option, one of them being NSN with Ethan Vernon and Jake Stewart. Vernon, second in the GC, is likely to be the option however as he's got a good chance of getting the ochre jersey; There is Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe who can definitely back up Danny van Poppel but Laurence Pithie may have his own space too as he is third and could also reach the race lead; and also Tudor who have in Maikel Zijlaard an excellent positioning specialist, but perhaps he will be helping out Marius Mayrhofer.
Otherwise we should pay attention specially to Alberto Dainese, Juan Sebastian Molano and Casper van Uden to chase the stage win and potentially succeed; whilst other sprinters such as Jensen Plowright, Tobias Lund Andresen, Luke Lamperti, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Lionel Taminiaux and Aaron Gate will be present.
Prediction Tour Down Under 2026 stage 1:
*** Sam Welsford, Matthew Brennan
** Alberto Dainese, Danny van Poppel, Ethan Vernon
* Casper van Uden, Jensen Plowright, Tobias Lund Andresen, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Aaron Gate, Marius Mayrhofer, Maikel Zijlaard, Juan Sebastian Molano
** Alberto Dainese, Danny van Poppel, Ethan Vernon
* Casper van Uden, Jensen Plowright, Tobias Lund Andresen, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Aaron Gate, Marius Mayrhofer, Maikel Zijlaard, Juan Sebastian Molano
Pick: Matthew Brennan
How: Regular bunch sprint.
Original: Rúben Silva
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Rafionain-Glas09-02-2026 - Yes, races should be as varied as possible. We have the same problem in amateur racing where I am, despite mountains all around, nobody integrates them in races like used to be the case. At best now you can get a a 5-10min climb or a less if a circuit. You need to mingle with unlicensed riders in gran fondos or cyclotourist “races” if you want to climb now. That (as well as dozens of other things) further reduces the number or riders willing to pay a licence because in the end races only cater for half the different type of riders and so the downward spiral continues. Ironically, the opposite happens at the same time, multiplication of the types of cycling (gravel, e-bike, downhill) but the net result is still dilution for each individual event.Mistermaumau09-02-2026
- Outside Belgium and to a lesser degree The NL, nobody gets aggro for supporting both Wout and Mathieu but that might be because both are appreciated not only for their performances but also for almost everything else, neither can be labelled the bad guy or weakling or frustrated or moaner, etc. We choose our favourites according to many criteria, sometimes even contradictory or hypothetically. Going back to the wrist, will someone who considered it a big handicap then please explain to me how it prevents a well-paid pro with motivation from continuing effective adapted training? The moment he crashed he’d already been in top shape quite a while. According to himself he was indoor training (and running, core, etc.) a week later so couldn’t have lost much fitness. Maybe he raced a bit less but he was also worried he’d raced too much early on and was kind of relieved to have to take a “break”. Again, the injury alone didn’t justify the resulting time gap, something else was probably also below par but it’s unlikely we’ll ever know what.Mistermaumau09-02-2026
- Not going to read in detail, particularly because I’m involved with amateur clubs in similar situations and don’t want to mix up differing precise rules and definitions but it seems to me this situation would vastly improve if the UCI would impose a registration date ahead of the transfer period. That way, riders (and (other) teams) would know where they stand in time. Can anyone provide reasons why this would be counterproductive?Mistermaumau09-02-2026
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- Yes, the pundits do like to talk up injuries, and rivalries. I wish they would let fans support both Wout and Tadej, for instance, without making it seem one has to choose between the two.Hills3309-02-2026
- It's a different sort of excitement now. Back in Roger de Vlaeminck's time it was engaging to see riders race crazy distances even if very little actually happened. Now that's not interesting because everyone knows that the cyclists can do that. Milano-Sanremo has always been interesting because it's about who's got the legs after almost 300 km (unlike Sam Welsford who struggles when it goes past 180). That is why races are being adapted to that. The crazy long stages in Grand Tours are extremely rare, and the Blockhaus stage in the 2026 Giro is an exception. Personally I blame La Vuelta. There has to be a limit, or road cycling will turn into criteriumsRafionain-Glas09-02-2026
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- For sure you are not a Tadej fan, but this post is unfair. Pog has made little fuss about his few injuries. Winning Strade Bianche with fresh rashes full of thorns? He never used his knee as an excuse in the 2025 Tour (and why would he, he won). The look on his face in the last metres was joy and relief, not disappointment. But I was interested to read up on the Flemish name for LBL that you used, so thanks for that.Hills3309-02-2026
- What Mathews is complaining about is actually making cycling better, not worse. Racing just for sprint wins is boring to the average fan. Mathews seems to be complaining about having to race hard throughout the stage and having a good team in order to be a player in the finale - I don't get his argument.paule09-02-2026
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