Preview stage 1 Tour Down Under 2026 - Sam Welsford and Matthew Brennan headline Tanunda sprint battle
Cycling
We preview stage 1 of the Tour Down Under that is set to take place on the 21st January, having an estimated start time at 01:49CET and finishing at 04:25CET. After Sam Watson's victory on the prologue, this will be the best day for the sprinters to battle for the win amongst each other, and amongst them will be Visma's Matthew Brennan and INEOS' Sam Welsford.
Stage 1 will start and finish in Tanunda, with three laps of a circuit providing the sprinters with their first chance to win and also take the ochre jersey. The circuit is not completely flat, but it will be very hard to disrupt the fast men's goals.
The ascent to Mengler Hill is only slight, however after the summit there will be a very fast and steep descent which will lead to some tension and fight for positioning. The last 7 kilometers are mostly flat however, not technical, and if anything the final kilometer of the stage has a slight uphill tilt.
Stage 1: Tanunda - Tanunda, 120.6 kilometers
Stage 1: Tanunda - Tanunda, 120.6 kilometers
The Weather
Map of stage 1 of the 2026 Tour Down Under
It will be hot and there will be strong southern wind. Now, this isn't a race that usually sees echelon, but yes they can happen. The conditions are pretty good, with several crosswind sections, roads that are overall quite exposed and this includes some in the final kilometers. It could become quite tense, whilst the final sprint in town will on paper have a cross-tailwind.
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The Favourites
Sam Welsford - This is Welsford's race - by that I also mean it's usually the only one he performs well in. Will the same happen in 2026? That remains to be seen, but we should expect him to ride well here, specially with a decent time today on the prologue. A pure flat finish will suit him, although INEOS' leadout isn't luxurious. Neither is Brennan's however, so on paper both riders may have to get in the wheels of their rivals.
Matthew Brennan - Brennan would certainly enjoy the wind to play a role here on this day, and fatigue the other sprinters beforehand. Leadout wise Filippo Fiorelli could be interesting, but the Tour Down Under is very much a test. However the Briton is incredibly strong, and I think in any scenario he may go on to take a win.
We've got a few teams with more than one option, one of them being NSN with Ethan Vernon and Jake Stewart. Vernon, second in the GC, is likely to be the option however as he's got a good chance of getting the ochre jersey; There is Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe who can definitely back up Danny van Poppel but Laurence Pithie may have his own space too as he is third and could also reach the race lead; and also Tudor who have in Maikel Zijlaard an excellent positioning specialist, but perhaps he will be helping out Marius Mayrhofer.
Otherwise we should pay attention specially to Alberto Dainese, Juan Sebastian Molano and Casper van Uden to chase the stage win and potentially succeed; whilst other sprinters such as Jensen Plowright, Tobias Lund Andresen, Luke Lamperti, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Lionel Taminiaux and Aaron Gate will be present.
Prediction Tour Down Under 2026 stage 1:
*** Sam Welsford, Matthew Brennan
** Alberto Dainese, Danny van Poppel, Ethan Vernon
* Casper van Uden, Jensen Plowright, Tobias Lund Andresen, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Aaron Gate, Marius Mayrhofer, Maikel Zijlaard, Juan Sebastian Molano
** Alberto Dainese, Danny van Poppel, Ethan Vernon
* Casper van Uden, Jensen Plowright, Tobias Lund Andresen, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Aaron Gate, Marius Mayrhofer, Maikel Zijlaard, Juan Sebastian Molano
Pick: Matthew Brennan
How: Regular bunch sprint.
Original: Rúben Silva
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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