Preview stage 1 Tour Down Under 2026 - Sam Welsford and Matthew Brennan headline Tanunda sprint battle

We preview stage 1 of the Tour Down Under that is set to take place on the 21st January, having an estimated start time at 01:49CET and finishing at 04:25CET. After Sam Watson's victory on the prologue, this will be the best day for the sprinters to battle for the win amongst each other, and amongst them will be Visma's Matthew Brennan and INEOS' Sam Welsford.

Stage 1 will start and finish in Tanunda, with three laps of a circuit providing the sprinters with their first chance to win and also take the ochre jersey. The circuit is not completely flat, but it will be very hard to disrupt the fast men's goals.

The ascent to Mengler Hill is only slight, however after the summit there will be a very fast and steep descent which will lead to some tension and fight for positioning. The last 7 kilometers are mostly flat however, not technical, and if anything the final kilometer of the stage has a slight uphill tilt.

It will be hot and there will be strong southern wind. Now, this isn't a race that usually sees echelon, but yes they can happen. The conditions are pretty good, with several crosswind sections, roads that are overall quite exposed and this includes some in the final kilometers. It could become quite tense, whilst the final sprint in town will on paper have a cross-tailwind.

Sam Welsford - This is Welsford's race - by that I also mean it's usually the only one he performs well in. Will the same happen in 2026? That remains to be seen, but we should expect him to ride well here, specially with a decent time today on the prologue. A pure flat finish will suit him, although INEOS' leadout isn't luxurious. Neither is Brennan's however, so on paper both riders may have to get in the wheels of their rivals.

Matthew Brennan - Brennan would certainly enjoy the wind to play a role here on this day, and fatigue the other sprinters beforehand. Leadout wise Filippo Fiorelli could be interesting, but the Tour Down Under is very much a test. However the Briton is incredibly strong, and I think in any scenario he may go on to take a win.

We've got a few teams with more than one option, one of them being NSN with Ethan Vernon and Jake Stewart. Vernon, second in the GC, is likely to be the option however as he's got a good chance of getting the ochre jersey; There is Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe who can definitely back up Danny van Poppel but Laurence Pithie may have his own space too as he is third and could also reach the race lead; and also Tudor who have in Maikel Zijlaard an excellent positioning specialist, but perhaps he will be helping out Marius Mayrhofer.

Otherwise we should pay attention specially to Alberto Dainese and Casper van Uden to chase the stage win and potentially succeed; whilst other sprinters such as Jensen Plowright, Tobias Lund Andresen, Luke Lamperti, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Lionel Taminiaux and Aaron Gate will be present.

*** Sam Welsford, Matthew Brennan
** Alberto Dainese, Danny van Poppel, Ethan Vernon
* Casper van Uden, Jensen Plowright, Tobias Lund Andresen, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Aaron Gate, Marius Mayrhofer, Maikel Zijlaard

Pick: Matthew Brennan

How: Regular bunch sprint.