“There’s no point trying to anticipate with Yates, Sivakov, Del Toro & Vine in support” – Experts see hopeless situation for Tadej Pogacar’s Il Lombardia rivals

Tadej Pogacar has dominated Il Lombardia for four consecutive years — and according to several seasoned analysts, there’s little to suggest that streak will end this weekend at the 2025 edition of the Autumn Monument.

Speaking on Kop over Kop, Eurosport’s cycling podcast, commentators and former pros assessed the Slovenian’s chances of winning a fifth straight Monument in Lombardy — an unprecedented feat in the history of the race. While history still places Pogacar alongside Fausto Coppi, the only other rider to have won four in a row (1946–1949), a fifth consecutive victory would place the 27-year-old alone atop the all-time records for consecutive wins at the "Race of the Falling Leaves".

That, in itself, underscores the scale of the moment. Yet the narrative among the Kop over Kop panel is one of resignation: not just admiration for Pogacar’s brilliance, but a belief that no real challenge can be mounted at all.

“The problem is, it’s no longer a Slovenian team — it’s UAE,” said Eurosport commentator Jeroen Vanbelleghem, referring to potential tactics used at recent European and World Championships. “There’s no point trying to anticipate with riders like Yates, Sivakov, Del Toro and Vine in support.”

That depth of talent within UAE Team Emirates - XRG — where proven Grand Tour contenders now ride in service of a single goal — is what Vanbelleghem and fellow pundits see as the decisive factor in Pogacar’s continued dominance. The Slovenian’s victories have evolved from close-fought sprints to crushing solo displays. In 2021 and 2022, he waited until the final metres to outsprint rivals like Fausto Masnada and Enric Mas. By 2023, the gap to second place was 52 seconds. Last year, Remco Evenepoel crossed the line over three minutes adrift.

Much of the discussion centred on the course itself — a familiar route featuring the Passo di Ganda, where Pogacar has launched decisive attacks in past editions. “The key moment will come on the Passo di Ganda — it always does,” Vanbelleghem added. “And that’s where Pogacar goes. The only question is whether Evenepoel can go with him. But realistically, we’ll all be watching that climb and hoping the impossible happens.”

That sense of inevitability was echoed by Bobbie Traksel, who pointed out that the only viable tactic for rivals is to attack earlier — before the Slovenian superstar gets into his rhythm. “You have to go earlier,” Traksel said. 

Tom Pidcock, who impressed recently at the Giro dell’Emilia, was mentioned by Traksel as a possible ally for Evenepoel. But others, like French prospect Paul Seixas, may already be feeling the fatigue of a long season. “It’s just too much,” said analyst Jan Hermsen of Seixas. “I don’t see it happening for him in Lombardy. The season’s caught up with him, and he still has Guangxi ahead.”

While the expert analysis paints a picture of near-total control by Pogacar and UAE, the historical weight of the moment shouldn’t be overlooked. No rider — not Merckx, not Coppi, not Bartali — has ever won five consecutive editions of Il Lombardia.

Cycling’s Monuments are rarely predictable, and one mechanical, one moment of hesitation, one flash of brilliance from a rival can rewrite the narrative. Pogacar enters as the overwhelming favourite, but sport — and especially this sport — has a way of surprising even the most certain of experts.

Whether this weekend cements a new chapter in cycling history or delivers the unexpected, the world will be watching the roads of Lombardy once again.